Virus pandemic fears sink stocks

(24 February 2020) Stock markets around the world plunged today on fears that the coronavirus has reached pandemic status with major new outbreaks in Iran, Italy and South Korea.  Europe suffered the worst losses with Germany down 4%, while India lost 2% and the US fell more than 3%.  Investors now are beginning to factor in the possibility that the virus could significantly impact many economies outside of China.  Travel and tourism have already suffered significant declines as people are travelling less, and now the prospect of extensive lockdowns and quarantines threaten to hamper both production and consumption.  It all spells a potentially damaging phase for an already weakened global economy. 

This negative outcome was not surprising to the astrologically inclined as there was a clearly bearish planetary set up for early this week.  Mars (11 Sagittarius) conjoined the South Lunar Node (Ketu) which is often bearish as it can correlate with higher volatility and unpredictable situations. 

But Monday's alignments were that much more potent because there were two other planets involved: the Sun was sitting on the 11th degree of Aquarius and therefore in aspect with Rahu, the North Lunar Node.  The Nodes are destabilizing influences and tend to amplify negativity if associated with a malefic planet like Mars, as in the case here.  In addition, retrograde Mercury (14 Aquarius) isn't far away and so it is also under the destabilizing influence of the 120-degree/5th house aspect of Rahu. 

By itself, these transit aspects would likely have produced a 1% down day in any event.  But we had a much deeper decline in the US today because they aligned with the Ascendant and 8th house cusp of the S&P 500 horoscope.  The Mars-Ketu conjunction exactly conjoined the 8th house cusp and therefore formed a close 150 degree angle with the Ascendant.  According to the principles of Vedic astrology, the 8th house is the most malefic house in the whole chart and reflects situations of disappointment, obstacles and setbacks when it is activated through transits.

So what happens next?  Ketu will remain in very close conjunction to the 8th house cusp for the next few weeks so there is still some risk of more volatility in the stock market.  However, Mars moves much more quickly and will begin to move away from Ketu tomorrow so I would not be surprised to see some upside in the near term.  Futures are higher at the time of writing (10 pm EST) so some kind of relief bounce may be on the way this week. 

However, Mercury will form an even closer alignment with Mars and Ketu over the next couple of days, so we sould not be surprised if there is another down day in the mix here.  That said, the Moon conjoins Venus on Thursday and then Venus aligns with Pluto on Friday.  These are both bullish influences which may provide some fuel for any potential relief rally.  An eventual gap fill to 3320 is also not out of the question depending on how tomorrow goes.

Next week may be another story, however. 

For more details and potential timing scenarios, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.


Photo: Rocky Mountain Labs, NIAID/US NIH

 

Apple warns as coronavirus hits China production; Mercury turns Rx

(17 February 2020) Maybe the other shoe has finally dropped.   Today, Apple warned that revenues would likely fall short in this quarter due to the impact of the coronavirus outbreak in China.  The outbreak has wreaked havoc on the Chinese economy as hundreds of millions of people are in full or partial lockdowns.   This has created interruptions in the complex supply chain for electronics such as the iPhone with both production and sales likely to take a major hit. 

Stock markets have generally rallied in February on the hope that the virus could be contained and that the forceful actions of the People's Bank of China would prevent a crash.  They have banned short selling and injected billions of the dollars into the system to keep liquidity flowing.  This has worked so far as China's market has bounced strongly off its Jan 31 low. 

But Apple's announcement today confirms that the economic impact has only begun to be felt.  More such announcements from large companies are likely coming soon as production has been severely interrupted in the world's second largest economy.

Interestingly, the announcement came just one day after Mercury, the planet of commerce and trade, turned retrograde.  Mercury's retrograde cycle lasts about three weeks and occurs about four times a year.  It is traditionally associated with miscommunication, breakdowns, foul-ups and frustration.  It tends to have a bearish reputation in terms of the stock market, although I have found the correlation is not that strong. 

However, I have found that the time around the "stations" are most important in terms of stocks.  Stocks can be more volatile and can rise or fall more sharply than normal during the 2-3 day period around each retrograde and direct station.  If Mercury forms a significant angle with a malefic planet like Mars or Saturn, a bearish outcome is more likely.  Retrograde periods can also indicate a temporary shift in prevailing sentiment. 

Futures are down modestly at the time of writing (10 p.m. EST Monday) so it looks like we could see a down day on Tuesday when US markets re-open after the long weekend.  Using the Apple horoscope, we can see why this week may be more negative than last week.  First, we can see that transiting Mercury Rx (18 Aquarius) does form a 45 degree angle with Saturn, a malefic planet. The angle is actually 46 degrees but that is still very close since 45 is one of the divisors of the 360-degree circle.  Mercury moves very slowly around the day of its station, so we should expect some down days this week in any event.

 

The other thing to note here is that the Apple chart is getting the full brunt of a nasty-looking Moon-Mars-Ketu conjunction on Tuesday.  This is a bearish influence which just happens to align with Apple's 12th house cusp representing loss and disappointment.  I suspect shareholders could be quite disappointed this week. 

But the stars aren't all bad.  Jupiter is in a near-exact 90-degree alignment with Neptune through the week so this is likely to generate at least some upside.  In fact, some of the gains we've already seen in February are partially related to this slow-moving alignment. 

In terms of the market as a whole, while the Mercury retrograde station is a negative influence this week, the Jupiter-Neptune alignment suggests it won't be a complete washout.   Wednesday's Moon-Jupiter conjunction looks somewhat more positive, for example, and Friday's Venus-Jupiter alignment also could give the bulls some fuel.  Thursday's Moon-Saturn conjunction is another potential danger zone, however.

Generally, I would think that Apple could have some difficulty resuming its usual upward climb here.  Ketu will remain fairly close to the 12th house cusp for the next couple of months so that may well bring more downside. 

The other thing to remember is that Apple is nearing the end of its Jupiter-Rahu dasha period.  This is usually a very bullish period in any chart and that has certainly been the case with Apple over the past two years.  But the Saturn-Saturn period is scheduled to begin on April 26 (using Krishnamurti ayanamsha -- perhaps a few weeks later in Lahiri) so that is another bearish influence for the longer term.  Dashas don't work like clockwork but they are important influences that can operate in the background.  The Saturn influence here will make further gains much more difficult in 2020 and we could easily see Apple undergo a significant correction. 

For more details and potential timing scenarios, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

After losing in New Hampshire, is Joe Biden done?

(11 February 2020) Early returns from tonight's New Hampshire primary have Bernie Sanders in front with 26 % of the vote.  The Vermont Senator was expected to win NH and has therefore become the frontrunner for nominee of the Democratic party in the presidential election in November.  Pete Buttigieg (24%) is running a close second with Amy Klobuchar (20%) a very respectable third.  Elizabeth Warren (10%) is a distant fourth and former Vice-President Joe Biden an even more distant fifth (8%). 

The takeaway here is Sanders has consolidated his leading position for the nomination while Amy Klobuchar is suddenly very much a going concern.  Perhaps the bigger news is that Biden has done so poorly that there may be pressure on him to drop out of the race.  Biden had been the frontrunner for most of last year as the former VP enjoyed the highest profile of any candidate.  But after his weak performances in Iowa and now in New Hampshire, Biden may be on the verge of ending his campaign.

Biden will likely soldier on until the South Carolina primary on February 29 where he has a strong base of support.  But few analysts expect him to have much chance of winning now. 

I must admit I thought Biden would have done better at this point.  That said, I have previously noted a few weaknesses in Biden's horoscope that made him less likely to do well in early in the campaign in Iowa and New Hampshire.  He is currently running the Mars minor dasha period and Mars is badly placed in his 12th house, albeit conjunct benefic Mercury.  Also, I noted that Jupiter, his major dasha lord, was opposed by transiting Saturn in February.  This perhaps made him more vulnerable in this early contests. 

And we can see how impossible Biden's transits were for today's New Hampshire primary.  Not only is Saturn (2 Capricorn) exactly opposite his Jupiter (2 Cancer), but transiting Mars (2 Sagittarius) also aspects his Saturn by its full-strength 8th house (quincunx) aspect.  It's a double shot of negative energy to his dasha lord and a very, very tough configuration.   And to make matters worse, Rahu is sitting on his equal 8th house cusp (10 Gemini) indicating negative situations causing embarrassment and humiliation.

Last year, I thought Biden's chart looked good enough to be the Democratic nominee mostly due to the Jupiter-Rahu dasha period that started in early April 2020.  Biden's Jupiter is very strong near its highest degree of exaltation in Cancer in the lucky 9th house.  Biden's Rahu is also very well placed in the 10th house of status and boosts his public profile and sense of achievement during its dasha.  What I hadn't seriously considered, however, is whether he could be forced to drop out of the race before this very favourable Jupiter-Rahu dasha period began.  The current Jupiter-Mars dasha definitely has some shortcomings due to Mars' 12th house placement.  And now this Mars-Saturn aspect to his Jupiter is very difficult indeed. 

And yet, if he somehow manages to hang on, his fortunes may improve both in South Carolina (February 29) and on Super Tuesday (March 3) and also the other March primaries.  Jupiter will aspect his Midheaven (unequal 10th house cusp) in late February and early March.  This transit usually coincides with some kind of achievement or success related to career and status.  But even here, Biden's chart still has its share of challenges.  Rahu will still be parked on his 8th house cusp (scandal, humiliation) and now Mercury will be conjunct his natal Ketu.  This forms a larger alignment with Uranus and Rahu and could coincide with some disruptive and strange situations. 

While the Jupiter influence is very good, this Mercury alignment looks more stressful for Biden.  It is less negative than the Saturn-Mars-Jupiter alignment for New Hampshire, but it is not clearly positive either.  An additional source of concern for Biden is the Sun-Saturn square alignment.  This suggests some injury to his ego is more likely in SC.

While he should do better in SC in any event, it is unclear if this chart setup will be enough to win.  The horoscope doesn't really look good enough for Biden to win and to reclaim his frontrunner mantle.  But I wonder if it may be enough to keep him in the race. 

His chart does look better for the decisive March primaries so there is still a chance that he could somehow pull this out.  And yet, I have to say I would not be surprised if he dropped out in the coming days.  One such possible time would be around the Nevada primary on February 22 as the planets look very bad for him.  Mars will conjoin Ketu on his 2nd house cusp while Mercury is in a square alignment with his Saturn.  He seems likely to lose again, whether or not he chooses to end his campaign. 


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks have extended their rebound this week as fears diminished somewhat about the potential impact of the Wuhan coronavirus.  The size of this move higher has been somewhat greater than expected, as I thought we might have seen some more downside from this week's Mars-Saturn alignment following Friday's pullback. 

The downside risk remains elevated this week, however, as Mars will remain in fairly close alignment with Saturn.  Thursday's Moon-Saturn square also favours some selling and Friday's Sun-Saturn alignment has a bearish quality.   The ongoing Jupiter-Neptune alignment is likely offering some support to market sentiment here although it is unclear if it can offset some of the upcoming negative transit setups.

For more details and potential timing scenarios, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Buttigieg scores potential upset in Iowa caucuses

(4 February 2020)  The US primary season got under way yesterday with the Iowa caucuses, the traditional first stop on the long road to election day in November.  Unfortunately, here it is 24 hours later and the winner is not yet known due to a malfunctioning computer app and a newly complicated vote-allocation procedure.  With partial results in, however, the young Mayor Pete Buttigieg enjoys a narrow 1% lead over Bernie Sanders and a somewhat larger lead over Elizabeth Warren and presumptive frontrunner, Joe Biden.

If current trends hold, then Buttigieg would get a big boost going into the next primary in New Hampshire on February 11.  Even if he loses narrowly to Sanders, he will still have done well and would be well-positioned for future primaries. 

A Buttigieg win would not be surprising as I thought his horoscope looked quite good for this week's contest.  In my post two weeks ago, I wasn't sure who would win although I thought Buttigieg had a reasonable shot.  I had thought Joe Biden's chart was sufficiently strong for him to parley his frontrunner status but that clearly isn't the case as Biden is likely to be a loser after tonight.  Perhaps the confusion and delay with the result prevented him from suffering an even greater embarrassment so that may have been his silver lining. 

I was also wrong in thinking that Bernie Sanders would do poorly in Iowa as the firebrand socialist senator from Vermont has clearly gained some important early momentum.  One possible interpretation of some of the difficult energy from the Saturn alignment to his Mars-Venus pattern is that either he came frustratingly close to winning but narrowly lost or he won but was denied the chance to make a primetime victory speech which would have further legitimized his campaign.  It is widely known that the Democrat establishment don't want Sanders to win the nomination and some have suggested the confusion and delay in the tally may have been deliberate.

Buttigieg's horoscope is quite strong here.  As I noted previously, the really important transit hit was the direct station of Uranus in mid-January  at 8 Aries that exactly squared with his natal Venus at 8 Capricorn. While square aspects are usually more problematic that conjunctions, the station is very powerful in any event and the Uranus-Venus pairing tends to be quite positive in terms of life outcomes including greater rewards and recognition, especially those that may come suddenly and unexpectedly. 

We can also see that the Uranus-Venus alignment is being amplified by Chiron (8 Pisces) and Mercury (7 Aquarius).  All these planets near the 8th degree of their sign will resonate more strongly with Buttigieg's Venus and will tend to produce very more favourable results at this time.  The Sun coming up to conjoin his Mercury doesn't hurt either. 

So whether he ultimately wins Iowa or comes in a close second, Buttigieg has some significant momentum going into New Hampshire.  However, his transits for the next primary on February 11 do not look favourable.  The transiting Sun (28 Capricorn) aligns with his natal Saturn and Rahu and suggest a difficult time in terms of damaged ego and diminished vitality.  The Mars transit to his Neptune is also probably a negative as it can mean suffering from deception.  The fact that Saturn (2 Capricorn) also aligns with Mars and Neptune suggests that things may not go as he hopes. 

It seems less likely that Buttigieg can win New Hampshire and even a respectable second place showing may prove difficult.  Of course, Bernie Sanders is the favourite since NH is next door to his home state of Vermont.  Looking further ahead, Buttigieg may have a tough time of it over the next two months as Saturn conjoins his Sun (5 Capricorn).  There is usually a lot of hard work and discipline with this Saturn-Sun transit but usually the rewards are not forthcoming. 

Photo credit: Garry Riggs



Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks have bounced so far this week as coronavirus fears have subsided for now.  Last week saw the markets tumble as expected as the late week longitudinal Saturn-Mercury alignment combined with a horizontal parallel of the Sun, Earth, Saturn and Mars.  The early week gains here coincided with a bullish alignment of the Sun, Jupiter and Neptune. 

The rest of the week seems more mixed as the Sun-Jupiter-Neptune alignment will gradually fade.   Wednesday and Thursday have some upside potential as Mercury remains in fairly close alignment with Uranus and Chiron.  However, I am less confident of gains on both those days as Mars is slowly moving into alignment with Pluto and Saturn.  This bearish influence is exact next week but it could start to cause problems this week.  Friday is the most likely candidate in that respect as the Moon opposes Saturn in the morning of the US trading day.

For more details and potential timing scenarios, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.