China struggles to contain coronavirus outbreak

. (27 January 2020) As it rings in the Lunar New Year, China is reeling under the effects of a deadly new coronavirus that is spreading rapidly through country.   The virus outbreak began in the city of Wuhan in December and cases have now appeared in many countries around the world.  While the city of Wuhan is now under quarantine, it is uncertain if the virus can be quickly contained given that it is more contagious than previous coronaviruses such as SARS.

There is growing alarm over the the future impact of this epidemic.  Already Chinese authorities have ordered an extension of the Lunar New Year holiday for a second week with businesses and schools now due to re-open on February 9.  Travel restrictions inside and outside China are now in place in an attempt to stop the spread of the virus.

This coronavirus outbreak appears to fulfill my New Year's prediction of a potential global disease or health-related problem emerging in 2020.   The horoscope for January 1, 2020 featured an alignment of the Moon (population), Neptune (illness) and Saturn (suffering) which suggested the elevated risk of a this sort of viral outbreak.  On December 30, 2019 I wrote:

I would also suggest that the affliction of Moon-Neptune by Saturn could signify some kind of  disease or health-related problems in 2020.  Neptune is the planet that is frequently connected with illness so its connection with Saturn and the Moon is noteworthy.  Saturn rules the 6th house of health so its association with Neptune and the Moon also raises this as a possible scenario.  By way of comparison, the SARS outbreak in 2003 saw Neptune closely aspected by Rahu in the New Year's chart, while the Moon was closely opposed by Saturn.

We can see how the fallout from this virus is manifesting in the horoscope of China (October 1, 1949).  The Saturn-Pluto conjunction is hitting the natal Jupiter (29 Sagittarius) and is now entering the 1st house.  Saturn-Pluto is a very negative influence which has nullified Jupiter's hope and inherent optimism.  As Saturn now moves into Capricorn and the 1st house, hope for the future is in short supply as China focuses its energies on the here and now.

The negative influence of Saturn and Pluto reflect the overall national mood and the damage to the economy.   We can also see how the health of the nation is represented through transit effects of Neptune and Rahu (North Lunar Node).  When in hard aspect (0,90,180 degrees), Neptune is a planet that can bring weakness and sickness, whether to an individual or a nation.  We can see that Neptune is opposite (180 degrees) natal Saturn (20 Leo).  Since China has Capricorn rising in the 1st house, its sign ruler, Saturn, is the ruler of the whole chart.  Therefore, Saturn's affliction by Neptune is a key element of this current epidemic. 

Transiting Rahu at 12 Gemini is closely conjunct Uranus in the 6th house of national health.  This Rahu-Uranus conjunction is another clearly negative transit influence that aptly describes the current coronavirus outbreak.  Rahu is a natural malefic that operates through disruption of the status quo while Uranus is a planet of sudden and rapid developments.  The fact that this conjunction is taking place in the 6th house is a fairly impressive coincidence given the potential gravity of the medical situation in China.  We can also note that the current Uranus square to the natal Moon underlines the level of disruption of daily life and routine to the Chinese people. 

Underneath these very difficult transit influences is a very telling dasha picture.  In September 2019, China started its Mercury dasha period.  While Mercury has a somewhat positive quality by nature, it is in a very awkward place in the natal horoscope conjunct Neptune and Ketu and the Sun in Virgo.  Mercury is exalted in Virgo, but the tight conjunctions with Neptune and Ketu are huge negatives for this dasha period.  As we know, Neptune symbolizes weakness and illness, while Ketu is associated with more abstract notions of erasing, dilution, and transcendence.  This Mercury-Mercury dasha period is therefore a significant factor in the timing of this viral outbreak as the inherent natal weakness of Mercury is laid bare.


Looking ahead

So what happens next?  While I am reluctant to predict how serious things could get, I would say the planets do not point to any quick return to normal.  The Mercury-Mercury period lasts until 2022 so there is not much reason for optimism as far as that's concerned.  However, we should note that Neptune will slowing move away from its aspect with Saturn so that could represent a possible lessening of intensity of the virus over the coming months.  Rahu will remain in conjunction with the 6th house Uranus over the next few weeks so a solution to the health crisis may be more forthcoming after this period, such as in March.  That said, Rahu will remain in close conjunction with the 6th house cusp (8 Gemini) into spring and therefore health matters may be a source of ongoing concern.   

More worrying, however, is that Saturn will approach a close conjunction with the 1st house Moon (10 Capricorn) in April-May.  With Saturn due to station retrograde at 7 Capricorn in May, it is possible China could be feeling the negative effects of the flu epidemic until that date at least.  One possible way to read these influences is that the immediate medical emergency could pass by March as the Neptune-Saturn and Rahu-Uranus transits begin to separate and lose strength.  But the ongoing Saturn affliction to the Moon in the 1st house could represent serious damage to the economy and national mood for a significantly longer period.

I will update this post as the situation develops.


Weekly Market Forecast

Financial markets reacted to the coronavirus last week as stocks sold off and continued lower on Monday.  This was not unexpected as I thought we were more likely to see some turbulence here with the entry of Saturn into sidereal Capricorn on Jan 23 and the ongoing Saturn-Pluto conjunction this month.  Friday's decline in US markets closely correlated with the Sun-Moon-Saturn alignment that I noted in last week's post.  Today's decline also reflected a clearly bearish planetary signature as Mars closely aspected the Venus-Neptune conjunction.

While we could easily see some upside as we head into this Wednesday's Fed meeting, the late week again looks vulnerable to more selling on the rare parallel alignment (y-axis) of the Earth, the Sun, Mars and Saturn.  Longitudinally (x-axis), Mercury is due to align with Saturn and Pluto on Thursday and Friday so that is another possible indication for some downside.  Overall, it looks like volatility is here for a while.  

For more details and possible timing scenarios, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Trump impeachment trial to begin this week

(20 January 2020) The much-anticipated Senate impeachment trial of President Donald J. Trump is finally set to begin this week.   Although most observers expect Trump will be acquitted by the GOP-controlled Senate, there is still a lot of uncertainty about how the trial will proceed.  The White House and the GOP has thus far refused to hear any witnesses and there is considerable pressure from Trump to get the trial over as quickly as possible. 

Somehow I can't quite see Trump getting convicted, if only because it seems so unlikely in the current political climate.  And yet I cannot ignore the obvious tensions in Trump's horoscope over the coming weeks.  While some stresses and planetary afflictions are to be expected when a president is undergoing impeachment hearings, Trump's chart suggests it won't be smooth sailing.  A quick trial followed by a painless Trump acquittal therefore seems unlikely given some of the alignments in February and March. 

The early days of the trial look fairly good for Trump actually.   This week Jupiter will be closely oppose Trump's Mercury while Mercury and Venus will be in supportive degreewise alignments.   However, there could be some difficulties starting on Jan 29-30 as Mercury aligns with Saturn and Saturn is opposite his natal Saturn. 

Interestingly, this Saturnian theme of 'blocked progress' and 'disappointment' is also reflected in Trump's 2017 Inauguration chart.  That chart has Saturn at 29 Scorpio and Mars at 0 Pisces.  Therefore, we will see this Mars-Saturn duo activated by the transiting Mercury-Saturn-Pluto alignment at the end of January. 

Trump's stress levels will likely increase further into early February.  Around Feb 5, Mars will align with Saturn-Pluto and this will in turn activate his natal Saturn (0 Cancer) once again.  Mars will also conjoin his Moon-Ketu conjunction and coincide with a period of intense anger and emotions.  Of course, by this time, Saturn will be opposite Venus (2 Cancer) so that suggests unhappiness and diminished status since Venus rules his 10th house or career and status. 

Therefore, I would expect some setbacks for Trump during these two time windows.  One possibility is that some witnesses will be called and they will give damaging testimony.  This may not be enough to turn the GOP Senate against Trump, but it may create at least some uncertainty about the eventual outcome.  And more importantly, any damaging evidence could hurt Trump's re-election chances in November. 

So will Trump be convicted and removed from the White House or forced to resign?  I honestly don't know but probably not.  But I would say that the longer the trial goes, the worse it will be for Trump.  That's because there is a Saturn retrograde station coming up in April and May that will exactly hit his equal 6th house cusp (6 Capricorn) and therefore align with his Ascendant. 

This will also conjoin the natal Sun in the 2017 Inauguration chart and represents losses and frustration involving government and leaders.  The Mars-Saturn conjunction at 6 Capricorn on March 30 highlights the beginning of this difficult transit period for Trump and the White House in general.  



Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks are as frothy as ever here as US markets remain at all-time highs.  The Fed is doing its utmost to keep interbank lending rates low by pumping cash into the financial system.  Most of this liquidity is finding its way into the stock market through hedge funds and investment banks as the current bubble gets blown even bigger.  Clearly, the Federal Reserve is trapped as they cannot remove this support without causing a major decline in the stock market.  They may have no choice but to continue QE and the overnight repo operation for the foreseeable future.  One can only imagine what more extreme measures the Fed will be forced to do if a recession actually takes hold.    

The planets this week suggest more upside is possible.  Tuesday lacks clarity so it could go either way.  But Jupiter will align with Mercury and Venus on Wednesday and Thursday so that ought to translate into at least some gains.  And yet the Saturn influence is still growing.  Last week's Saturn-Pluto-Sun conjunction was something of a non-event but Saturn will again be prominent this week as it enters sidereal Capricorn on Thursday and Friday.   With the Fed meeting next Wednesday and all this Saturn energy around, I would think this huge QE-driven rally since October is likely due for a breather.  And who knows, if the impeachment trial provides some unwelcome surprises for Trump, that could introduce another source of instability for financial markets.

For more details and possible timing scenarios, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil. 

Biden and Sanders in close race ahead of Iowa caucuses

(13 January 2020) As we get closer to the Iowa caucuses on February 3, there is a tight four-way race for the nomination of the Democratic Party in this year's presidential election.  An average of recent polls has Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg and Warren each receiving between 16 and 21% support in the important first state race in Iowa.  A Monmouth poll released today had Biden taking a slightly wider lead at 24% with Sanders at 18%, Buttigieg at 16% and Warren at 15%.

While the Iowa result is important because it is first, it does not always predict the eventual winner of the nomination race.  Out of the past 10 races on the Democratic side, the Iowa winner went on to win the party nomination 7 times.   Clearly, Iowa matters a lot, but it is not crucial.  A close second or third place finish can also be enough to keep a candidate in the race.  Joe Biden currently enjoys an 9 point lead over Bernie Sanders nationally, but the race is tighter in early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire (Feb 11).  In fact, the race is so close in these early primary states and it has some analysts suggesting we could see an open or "brokered convention" where there no candidate wins a majority of delegates before the convention.  

I think a brokered convention is very unlikely as I still think Biden will be declared the nominee at some point during the primaries.  For the Iowa caucus, Joe Biden's horoscope looks quite good.  Transiting Venus and Chiron in early Pisces form a nice Grand Trine with Jupiter (2 Cancer) and his Sun-Venus conjunction in early Scorpio in the 1st house.  That sort of configuration usually coincides with favorable outcomes such as an election win.  Of course, we should note the presence of a more challenging Saturn opposition aspect to Jupiter at this time.  It's close enough that it could represent some arduous efforts and even some disappointments.  But the fact that it is involved in a multi-planet alignment with Venus and Chiron will likely make it less negative in its influence.  

The other thing we should note is that Uranus stationed direct on Biden's Moon (8 Aries) a few days ago.  This can give a tremendous amount of energy, although it may also produce some unpredictable behavior and surprising or unexpected events which may be distracting.  Nonetheless, I take this Uranus direct station on his Moon as a big plus for Biden as he enters the primary season.  It may be just the shot of energy the ageing former Vice-President needs to ramp up his campaign.

Bernie Sanders (pictured above) is currently polling a close second and is seen a possible left-wing alternative to the more centrist Biden.  Unfortunately, Sanders' birth time is unknown so we have to use an approximated noon chart.  Sanders may have difficult time leading up to Iowa as the Saturn-Pluto conjunction at 28 Sagittarius will be aligning closely with his Venus-Mars opposition.  That's a tough influence that suggests he is unlikely to do well in January.  In fact, he seems more likely to slip back in the polls with that alignment.  On February 3, both transiting Saturn and Pluto will still be in close alignment with his natal Venus and Mars.  Mars will be opposite his Jupiter and casting its full-strength square aspect to Ketu.  This is not a good set-up for Iowa for Sanders.  He seems very unlikely to win and could instead come in third or fourth. 

Elizabeth Warren's chart (time unknown) doesn't look that great either on Feb 3.  Besides an absence of clearly positive aspects, transiting Mercury (6 Aquarius) will be opposite her Saturn (8 Leo).  This type of aspect is usually coincident with disappointment and frustration.  I can't see her winning in Iowa and she will likely finish well back.  Pete Buttigieg (time unknown) has been running a surprisingly strong campaign in Iowa.  His chart looks more promising for Feb 3.  The recent Uranus station squares his Venus (8 Capricorn) so he is likely to receive a lot of positive attention from the voters.  While the square aspect can have some downside, it will likely be mitigated significantly through the alignment with Mercury (6 Aquarius) and Chiron (8 Pisces).  Also the Sun is coming up to conjoin his Mercury soon after so I would think Buttigieg will do well in Iowa.  He should finish a strong second to Biden.  I also wouldn't be shocked if he actually won Iowa although that seems less likely.



Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks continue their relentless march higher here ahead of the signing of Phase 1 of the US-China trade deal on Wednesday.  Last week's rise was not unexpected given the entry of Venus into sidereal Aquarius on Wednesday and Thursday.  But Friday's disruptive lunar eclipse played out as expected as stocks fell in Europe and the US, even if the declines were fairly modest.

This week could prove to be pivotal in financial markets as the Sun conjoins both Saturn and Pluto in late Sagittarius.  This is a rare alignment which is more likely to bring a shift in underlying sentiment.  The month of January as a whole looks likely to differ significantly from December due to the growing prominence of bearish Saturn over bullish Jupiter.  Saturn alignments are often correlated with falling markets although its slow velocity can sometimes make exact timing of its manifestations more challenging.  And with Saturn due to enter Capricorn on January 23, the rest of the month is likely to have a more cautious, or even fearful, Saturnian feel.  The close proximity of the triple conjunction and the Capricorn ingress may make the timing of the approaching market pullback less clear.

For more details and possible timing scenarios, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.