The 2020 New Year's Horoscope

(30 December 2019) With the coming of the New Year, we may try to see what may lie ahead for 2020.   The New Year's horoscope is an intriguing and simple way to see possible themes and trends.  This horoscope is a chart cast for the first minute of the New Year, at midnight on January 1.  As a default location, I choose Washington, DC but other locations may also be chosen.  Nonetheless, the Ascendant is always somewhere in the middle of sidereal Virgo, although the exact degree rising can vary somewhat.  While the New Year chart does not correspond to any particular astronomical event, the symbolic importance of the first moment of the New Year can yield important clues about the year upcoming. 

For example, years that are marked by recession and wars tend to have malefic planets in prominent places in the chart.  Thus Mars, Saturn, and the lunar nodes, Rahu and Ketu, are often stronger if they align with the Ascendant, Sun or Moon and other planets.  This happened most recently in 2008, the year of the Great Recession, when the 12th house Saturn was aligned with the Sun, while Mars was opposite Pluto, Jupiter and the Sun.   It was not a good chart. (see below)

This year the New Year's chart doesn't look quite that bad.  And yet I would say that the chart suggests we could see increased instability and change.  One main reason is due to the prominence of the Lunar Nodes, Rahu and Ketu, at the top and bottom of the chart.   Rahu near the 10th house cusp suggests unexpected or disruptive events relating to leaders and governments.  This could represent some major governments failing or being voted out of power. 

The nodal influence is made even greater due to Ketu's close conjunction with Mercury, Jupiter and the Sun, and more widely, with Saturn and Pluto.  Ketu's conjunction with the Sun reinforces the notion that leaders and government will become more unstable this year.  The Ketu influence on the Sun typically undermines notions of power and ego.  This is perhaps a comment on the fallout from the Trump impeachment proceedings and the upcoming US election in November. 

Ketu's conjunction with Mercury and Jupiter looks more positive as breakthroughs in science and communication are more likely.  The trine aspect with Uranus amplifies this sense of discovery.  Of course, the accelerating progress of science and technology is one of the hallmarks of this century.  But this pattern is unique and suggests that 2020 will be a year of major technological innovations and discoveries. 

Besides suffering from potential governments disruptions, there are a couple of alignments that deserve special mention.  First, Saturn is conjunct Pluto within one degree.  This combination can reflect intense situations of restriction and austerity.  Saturn also connotes onerous and disciplined labour with may be coerced in some way  Manipulation by authorities is another theme that captures some of this difficult Saturn-Pluto dynamic.

The second pattern is the Moon-Neptune conjunction.  In its more hopeful form, this pairing suggests spirituality and inspirational visions, such as one might associate with a period of religious flowering or renewal.  However, we should note that the Moon-Neptune combination is closely aspected by Saturn through its full strength 3rd house aspect.  This is a serious affliction that will tend to reduce the positive spiritual manifestations of Moon-Neptune and bring forth its more malefic qualities.  These may include disappointment, delusion and sadness, since the Moon is the planetary significator for the emotions.  This is therefore a potential indicator for generally pessimistic sentiment which could reflect a slowing economy. 

I would also suggest that the affliction of Moon-Neptune by Saturn could signify some kind of disease or health-related problems in 2020.  Neptune is the planet that is frequently connected with illness so its connection with Saturn and the Moon is noteworthy.  Saturn rules the 6th house of health so its association with Neptune and the Moon also raises this as a possible scenario.  By way of comparison, the SARS outbreak in 2003 saw Neptune closely aspected by Rahu in the New Year's chart, while the Moon was closely opposes by Saturn. 

Overall, 2020 looks like it will be an eventful and challenging year on several fronts.  The economy may be an ongoing source of concern but the indications are not as strongly negative as they were in 2008.  This may be suggest that the economy will fare somewhat better, however, we do need to remember that the New Year's chart does not have the final word.  It often operates in broad strokes and in a more impressionistic manner than specific charts relating to financial markets or the fate of specific governments.  Therefore, we will fill out our analysis in the coming weeks and months as events develop. 



Weekly Market Forecast

Financial markets have enjoyed the typical Santa Claus rally as the year wraps up.  As I suggested previously, the end of the year looked fairly positive as the Christmas eclipse occurred with a bullish conjunction of the Sun and Jupiter.  That said, I had been a bit uncertain if the stock market would manage to stay buoyant to the end of the year in the wake of the Jupiter-Uranus-Chiron alignment that had underwritten much of December's rally.  Stocks pulled back somewhat today (Monday) but most indexes are trading very close to their all-time highs. 

This week has a good chance for more upside, perhaps as soon as tomorrow (Tuesday).  Mercury is due to conjoin Jupiter by Thursday so that is likely to coincide with at least one up day (especially on Thursday, Jan 2) although I suspect its positive influence may be felt beforehand.  Friday looks like more of a question mark, however, so bullish investors should be careful. 

For a more detailed analysis of the markets, please check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

US-China trade deal sparks Santa Claus rally ahead of Christmas eclipse

(16 December 2019) Investors breathed a sigh of relief after the tentative agreement of the Phase 1 US-China deal late last week.  While there still seems to be some uncertainty surrounding the details of the deal, financial markets finished mostly higher.  In addition, the Fed delivered a dovish statement in its Wednesday FOMC meeting and the UK's Boris Johnson won a large majority in Thursday's election.  These were also bullish developments that helped boost stocks to new highs.

The gains did not significantly diverge from my expectations.  The ongoing Jupiter-Uranus-Chiron alignment was likely to provide a floor for stocks in any event although the bearish Venus-Saturn transit influence did not coincide with much downside.  I had been uncertain about the outcome of the US-China talks as the planetary indications were decidedly mixed although I thought a minor deal was quite possible.  While we have seen a largely positive reaction so far, the optimism could dissipate rapidly as we have seen so many times before in this ongoing saga.

With recession fears diminishing somewhat in recent weeks, the consensus view for stocks is mostly bullish as we finish up 2019 and head into 2020.  I'm far less sanguine, as the bullish Jupiter influence is waning as we approach the holiday season just as Saturn's bearish influence is likely to become more apparent.

One possible turning point in that respect is the upcoming Solar Eclipse that takes place shortly after Christmas Day, at twelve minutes past midnight (EST) on the 26th to be exact. Eclipses can have powerful effects on the markets -- and on our lives in general -- although they usually don't manifest until several days or weeks after the event.  We saw a near-immediate reaction to the lunar eclipse of January 31, 2018 as global markets declined sharply in the days following and thus began an extended period of volatility that would last for months.  Stocks also sold off sharply just two weeks after the lunar eclipse of July 16, 2019.  This is a more typical time lag between the eclipse and the market reaction, whether bullish or bearish. 

Eclipses usually need their energy to be released or triggered by a faster-moving transiting planet like Mars or Mercury.  We can see that the week-long 6% sell-off that began on July 31, 2019 coincided with Mercury stationing direct at 29 Gemini almost exactly opposite the lunar eclipse point at 0 Capricorn.  As I have discussed previously, Mercury stations (retrograde and direct) more often coincide with major moves, both positive and negative.  While other factors played a part in the decline, the Mercury station to the lunar eclipse point was a probable triggering factor. 

This upcoming Christmas solar eclipse will be closely conjunct Jupiter in the Sagittarius.  As configurations go, that is quite positive all other things being equal.  One possible interpretation is that it could mark the proximity of a major high point in the market.   A solar eclipse that conjoins Jupiter could mean that this is "as good as it gets".   Mercury will then transit across the eclipse point of 10 Sagittarius on December 31 so that is another plausible high water mark to consider.  That said, I'm still not sure stocks will continue to rally through to the end of the year.  Certainly, the typical Santa Claus rally around the holiday season tends to lift stocks and that could well happen again this year.  But there are likely to be some noteworthy down days along the way over the next two weeks that could make things difficult for bulls.  

While eclipses can be both bullish and bearish depending on the relevant alignments at the time, it should also be noted lunar eclipses carry more downside risk than solar eclipses.  The next lunar eclipse occurs on January 10, 2020 and may well be in closer proximity to trouble for the markets.  Saturn is more prominent in early 2020 as it will be conjunct Pluto in January and then due to enter sidereal Capricorn in late January and early February.  This Saturn influence is likely to represent a shift in sentiment in the financial markets as we begin 2020.

For a more detailed analysis of the markets, please check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Trump impeachment draws nearer

(9 December 2019)  The impeachment juggernaut is moving ever-closer to its ineluctable conclusion.  House Democrats are promising a vote on the Articles of Impeachment as soon as next week as Congress prepares to take a break for the Christmas holidays.  While there is still some uncertainty about its exact timing, the Senate trial of President Donald J. Trump would likely begin in January.  A vote to convict would then take place several weeks later at the earliest, perhaps in late January or more likely in February or even as late as March depending on the length of the trial.

Despite the high-stakes proceedings, few people expect Trump to be convicted by the Senate.  It is more likely that the impeachment vote will follow party lines with the Democrat-controlled House voting to impeach much like the GOP-controlled House voted to impeach Bill Clinton in December 1998.  The Senate vote to convict in February 1999 did not pass and largely followed party lines since the GOP lacked the 67 seats out of 100 needed.  The Democrats have 45 seats and would need 22 Republicans to vote against Trump to convict him.  A tall order, to say the least.

That partisan scenario may well play out again this time, although the Trump's horoscope does seem to be heavily afflicted in December and even more so in early 2020.  In late December, we can see that transiting Rahu will conjoin Mercury which could bring disruption, deception and confusion, especially in areas of communication.  Mars will aspect his Sun-Rahu-Uranus conjunction just before Christmas suggesting a time of elevated stress and conflict.  Given the current timetable, that could represent the House passing its impeachment vote. 

But losing the House vote is almost a forgone conclusion.  But if Trump was going to win the Senate vote (i.e. less than 67 votes for impeachment), we should expect to see more positive active influences in his chart in early 2020.  And yet this isn't really the case.  This is one reason why I cannot rule out the possibility that Trump will either be removed from office or avoid the whole process and resign.

As I noted in October, Trump will likely suffer significantly from the transit of Saturn and Pluto which oppose his natal Saturn (0 Cancer) and Venus (2 Cancer) in February and March.  February's Saturn opposition to Saturn-Venus will coincide with a bad Mars transit, that of the conjunction with his Moon-Ketu conjunction in late Scorpio.  Could that possibly symbolize the Senate voting to convict him and thereby removing him from the Presidency?  It still seems unlikely even with these bad transits although it is clearly not a good planetary situation.  One thing that seems clear is that it does not look like a cut-and-dried Trump win in the Senate that the GOP is hoping for.

Another angle on this question involves the chart of Vice-President Mike Pence.  If Trump is impeached and convicted in 2020, then Pence's chart should be positive since he would become president.  But that also isn't clearly borne out by his horoscope, although we should note we do not know his birth time so the margin of error is larger than normal here.  In fact, Pence's chart in early February also looks afflicted as Ketu conjoins his Saturn (erosion of foundations; breaking traditions) and Mars opposes his Sun-Mercury-Moon conjunction.

So it may well be a stressful time for him also.  On reflection, that may not be surprising, since Pence likely lacks any independent power base in the GOP.  It is largely Trump's party so if he is forced out, Pence will be in a difficult position. Trump may well want to continue to exert control over the White House after he has left office.  Therefore, we can't simply assume that Pence will be fully independent. 

And if Trump wants to run for re-election in the event of his resignation/conviction, he may well be able to do so.  If he chooses to resign before the Senate conviction vote, then he may be legally entitled to run for the GOP nomination in July.  Needless to say, 2020 is bound to be an interesting year.  I will update the whole Trump situation as it evolves.


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks quickly recovered from last week's brief sell-off as Friday's jobs report came in above expectations.   Both the early week selling and late week rebound were in keeping with the prevailing planetary influences. The Mars-Venus-Rahu alignment in the first half of the week indicated the probability of some downside while the late week Moon alignments with Jupiter and the Sun suggested more optimism and rising stock prices.

Investors this week will be focused on the Fed meeting on Wednesday so we could see a reaction either way.  While sentiment is still supported by the ongoing Jupiter-Uranus-Chiron alignment, it is less clear how much purchase this pattern will have this week.  Tuesday has both positive (Mercury-Jupiter) and negative (Venus-Saturn) alignments in play while the Sun-Venus-Saturn alignment may predominate after Wednesday.   Saturn alignments have an in-built bearish bias, although they do not always correspond to declines.  Nonetheless, caution may be on the rise this week.

For a more detailed analysis of the markets, please check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Dead or no-deal: US and China face Dec 15 tariff deadline

(2 December 2019) With the December 15 tariff deadline looming, financial markets are again contemplating if the US-China trade deal is half-full or half-empty.  A limited Phase 1 deal was supposedly in the bag in October, only to be undone by the usual cycle of fractured public negotiations on Twitter.  President Trump's support for the Hong Kong protestors angered China over the weekend and has made short term prospects worse.  So will Trump postpone these December 15 tariffs in order to keep the deal moving forward?

Both sides have cards to play.  Trump knows the trade war is probably hurting China more than it is hurting the US so China may be more willing to make a deal on terms favorable to the US.  However, China knows that Trump is in trouble politically with impeachment and with the election coming in November 2020.  Trump needs the stock market to be at or near record highs in order to have a decent chance of winning.  Failure to make a deal with China will cause stocks to fall so China may choose to wait Trump out until he caves. 

As I noted in last week's post, there is good reason to be more cautious about the stock market in the coming weeks.  The planetary influences are gradually shifting from a mostly bullish pattern to a more bearish pattern here in the month of December.  The very bullish alignment of Jupiter, Uranus and Chiron forms its closest angles in mid-December right around the time of the next Fed meeting on December 11, and this potentially pivotal trade deal deadline on December 15.  Once the alignment begins to separate, the risk of a market decline increases.

So there is a possibility of disappointment here right around the time of the trade deadline.  I am reluctant to make a firm prediction in that regard, although I do think that stocks will become more vulnerable around that time and in the days leading up to Christmas.  The second half of December will see bullish Jupiter weaken through its conjunction with Ketu (South Lunar Node) while bearish Saturn become more dominant as it approaches its conjunction with Pluto in January.

If we look at the horoscope of China (1 October 1949), we can see some significant aspects around the time of the deadline. On the plus side, the Jupiter-Uranus-Chiron alignment will highlight the Ascendant at 8 Capricorn.  This augurs well for the country as a whole, although it may not be relevant for the trade deal specifically.  The triple conjunction of Saturn-Pluto-Venus is conjunct the natal Jupiter at 29 Sagittarius.  The Venus hints at positive and constructive developments, but the presence of Saturn in the mix is not good.  It may not be a deal-breaker, but it may undermine the sustainability of any deal.  Also, transiting Mars will be conjunct Venus, the planet of diplomacy and agreement so that is a clear negative factor.

Overall, these alignments suggests a major positive breakthrough is unlikely although some minor deal is still quite possible.  The negative Mars and Saturn influences here are significant, although they may pertain to some other area such as Hong Kong, rather than the US trade deal.   Nonetheless, the outlook looks worse in early 2020 as Saturn and Pluto will conjoin Jupiter more closely and then move on to hit the Ascendant.  A particularly nasty configuration occurs in early April when Saturn and Mars conjoin the Ascendant while Ketu conjoins the 12th house cusp.  It is hard to see the Chinese economy and stock market doing well with these sorts of transits in effect. 

This suggests that China's economy will continue to struggle in 2020 and that growth could slow further.  The constraining Saturn influence on Jupiter (growth) and the Ascendant (the nation as a whole) may well mean that China could slip into recession.  Of course, official GDP data still forecasts 6% growth in 2019 although most observers see this data as manipulated and inflated.  Other data point to more serious problems in the Chinese economy.   


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks have started off the week with a decline on renewed trade jitters and some underwhelming US factory data.  The decline coincided with a close alignment of Mars (mostly bearish) with Rahu (sometimes bearish) and Venus (mostly bullish).  We could see more downside over the next couple of days as Mars will remain in close aspect with Rahu.  But the second half of the week looks more positive as the Moon first aligns with Jupiter on Thursday and then with the Sun on Friday.  Maybe this unstoppable rally in US stocks isn't done yet.

For a more detailed analysis of the markets, please check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.