Mercury turns retrograde after Wednesday Fed meeting

(28 Oct 2019)  Things are looking up for the stock market these days.  The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high today as corporate earnings satisfied buyers while the ever-elusive US-China trade deal appeared to move one step closer to reality.  While trading volumes have been low, some investors are expecting a major new leg higher as the Fed's loose monetary policy promises to keep interest rates as low as possible.  Low rates means that borrowing is cheaper and that can produce more growth in the near-term, whether or not this debt-based economy is sustainable in the long run.

The Federal Reserve meets this week on Wednesday and will issue its latest statement on the economy.  Most investors are expecting another rate cut of 25 points although the bigger question will be the forward guidance for 2020.  With a recession still looming over the horizon, the market is looking for reassurance that further cuts are coming and the Fed is prepared to intervene in the market no matter what.  To some extent, the Fed has already been intervening in the market through its purchases in the overnight repo market and its treasury bill buying in an attempt to entice more money into riskier assets like stocks. 

While a rate cut seems likely on Wednesday, it is unclear how the market will react.  The planetary outlook is very uncertain for the second half of week as Mercury is due to turn retrograde on Thursday, Oct 31.  Mercury retrograde stations often coincide with moments of uncertainty as information and communications can often be interrupted unexpectedly.  Outcomes may be at odds with intentions so this is a bearish bias in the markets. 

By way of background, a Mercury station occurs when Mercury appears to stop and reverse its motion from our perspective on the Earth.  This reversal of direction is a time window of increased vulnerability.  It is important to note that not all Mercury retrograde stations are negative for stocks, however.   If Mercury aligns with a benefic planet like Jupiter on the day of its station, then the reaction may be more positive than negative.  This isn't the case this time around as Mercury forms a novile aspect with bearish Mars later in the week.  This is equivalent to a conjunction in the D-9 Navamsha chart in Hindu astrology. 

Based on my experience, the Mercury retrograde cycle lasts about three weeks and doesn't necessarily correlate with bullish or bearish trends in the stock market.  The Mercury direct station occurs at the end of the retrograde cycle and marks the day when Mercury again returns to its normal forward motion.  This forward station is also a time of vulnerability for stocks, especially if Mercury aligns with a malefic planet like Saturn or Rahu.  As it happens the Mercury direct station on Nov 20 aligns with malefic Rahu so stocks may again become vulnerable to declines at that time.

Therefore, the retrograde and direct stations are 2-3 day windows that warrant close attention.  More generally, I would say the stations are times when stocks are more likely to change their trends.  The previous Mercury Rx cycle saw stocks rise on July 7 on the retrograde station while the direct station on July 31 saw stocks fall.  In the prior cycle, stocks reversed lower on March 5 and then changed trend and reversed higher with the direct station (Merc S.D.) on March 28.  And the previous cycle saw Mercury station on Nov 16, 2018 as stocks trended lower while the end of the retrograde cycle saw stocks fall again on Dec 6, 2018. 

The takeaway here is that the three-week long retrograde cycle is neither bullish nor bearish but that the time around the retrograde and direct stations are susceptible to reversals and trend changes. 

Since markets have been moving higher in October, there is added downside risk around the Mercury retrograde station on Thursday.  Similarly, the direct station on Nov 20 could also see the trend vulnerable to a reversal as Mercury aligns with Rahu.

There is some precedent for a sell-off after the Fed meeting on Wednesday.  So far this year, stocks have declined in the days following the meetings of May 1, July 31 and Sep 18.  The Mercury retrograde station on Wednesday only makes that scenario more likely.   The Planet Strength Index chart also reflects the possibility that the late week will be more negative for sentiment than the first half of the week.

For a more detailed analysis of the markets, please check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Time running out on Boris' Brexit

(14 October 2019) The tension is mounting as the UK is set to leave the European Union on Oct 31 with or without a deal.  Negotiations are intensifying in recent days as the EU is due to meet on Thursday and Friday to render a decision about any possible last-minute deals.  British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has refused to extend the deadline past Oct 31 and has asserted that he would leave without a deal if necessary.  Huge anti-Brexit protests are due this weekend as the country remains deeply divided on the whole Brexit question. 

In a previous post, I thought Boris Johnson would eventually be successful in his drive to take the UK out of the EU by Oct 31.  However, I didn't quite anticipate the level of difficulty he would have up to now as his various tactical strategies have failed.  His desire for a snap election was thwarted because of lack of support in the Commons and his proroguing of Parliament was also struck down by the Supreme Court.

That said, the current political impasse is not that surprising given the level of affliction in the UK national chart.  Transiting Ketu and Saturn are still just one degree away from the Sun indicating severe stress and frustrating situations involving government and leaders.  Both Ketu and Saturn are past their exact conjunctions with the Sun so there is some possibility that the conflict could begin to diminish in coming days. 

I would note that more problems are likely during the upcoming conjunction of Mars to the Ascendant (16 Virgo) at the end of this week.  This coincides with the EU summit where a decision will be made about any prospective Brexit deal.   The Mars transit suggests higher levels of conflict although it is open to interpretation about how it may manifest.  Most simply, it could mean the EU rejects the deal -- a more likely scenario in my view.  But it could also reflect rising anger in the UK itself about an agreement for a deal, given the intensity of feelings on both sides.  Perhaps the deal will be unsatisfactory in some essential way.  Parliament is due to meet in a special sitting the day after on Oct 19 to debate and vote on any deal that has been struck.  The Mars-Ascendant influence is likely to make that a very contentious sitting of the Commons.  Well, no surprise there.

No matter how rancorous Parliament is, I do think the stars favour Boris Johnson.  Jupiter will be conjunct the UK's 10th house ruler Mercury (26 Scorpio) (government, 'good news') in mid to late October.  Interestingly, Johnson's Mercury (26 Taurus) is exactly opposite the UK's Mercury and means that Jupiter will align with his Mercury also.  That makes it more likely for him getting his way.  But Johnson also has basically the same mid-Virgo Ascendant as the UK -- just one degree away -- and that is one reason why he is so popular despite his often questionable tactics.  That means the Mars influence will hit him too and guarantees a very divisive and angry few days between Oct 17-22 for him personally.

As I posted previously, I think Brexit is going to happen on Oct 31 -- with or without a deal.  That's because the planets look very tense on that day with respect to the UK horoscope.  If there was going to be another 90-day extension it would more likely happen in the days leading up to Oct 31.  That would make Oct 31 pass uneventfully.  But the planets suggest the deadline is likely to pass with some importance. 

Mercury turns retrograde on Oct 31 and is square the UK Saturn (2 Leo).  That suggests some major confusion and misunderstandings -- probably related to the circumstances of Brexit.  And since Mercury is the planet of commerce, it suggests a negative stock market reaction to whatever happens in and around Oct 31. Transiting Mars will be conjunct the natal Ketu indicating anger and possible disorder.

Regardless of how messy or bitter Brexit is, I do think the next few months look fairly good for PM Boris Johnson.  With an election very likely in the coming months, he is in good position to win. 

Jupiter saves Justin: Canada's Trudeau wins re-election

(22 October 2019) Canadian Prime Minster Justin Trudeau has won a second, albeit smaller, mandate on Monday as voters largely forgave his scandals and personal mistakes.  With the minority win, Trudeau's Liberals will now have to share power with the left-leaning NDP in order to form a functioning government.  The limited victory likely came as relief to Trudeau whose hold on power seemed precarious as a series of scandals and a spotty governing record made defeat a real possibility. 

Trudeau's win was not surprising to students of astrology, however.  As I posted back in March during the SNC-Lavalin corruption scandal, I thought Trudeau's horoscope was strong enough that he would win re-election, although he could lose his majority.  That is exactly what has come to pass. 

There were three key configurations in his chart that suggested a winning election result.  First, Trudeau would be experiencing his Jupiter Return in October.  This is a very strong positive influence as Jupiter confers rewards and wishes fulfilled, along with wisdom and "right action".  Jupiter returns to its natal position every 12 years and often highlights a short one or two-week time period of good fortune and new opportunities. 

Also Uranus (10 Aries) was forming a perfect Grand Trine with his natal Sun (10 Sagittarius) and the Ascendant (10 Leo).  Uranus moves very slowly -- just a few degrees a year -- so this Uranus alignment with the Asc-Sun alignment was very likely going to be manifestly positive for him.  The Sun represents the self and the ego, especially in leadership roles.  Uranus acts as a magnifier and is oriented towards projection into the public sphere.  Like the Sun and the Moon, the Ascendant is another significator of the self.   It was a fantastic configuration to have at a key moment in his political career.

Also, I noted that Trudeau's tertiary progressed Jupiter (not shown) was aligned with the progressed Sun and that this Jupiter is due to station direct over the next several months.  This is another powerful indication for career success.  These kinds of progressed Jupiter stations are probably even luckier in their effects than Jupiter Returns.  The timing is looser than with transits but it nonetheless creates a generally positive 2-4 month time window. 

Trudeau is running the Moon-Mercury dasha period which is another favourable influence.  The Moon is in the 8th house in Pisces with Mars and Chiron which isn't great but it does receive a close aspect from Jupiter.  Mercury rules the 11th house of gains and is conjunct Jupiter in the 4th house.  Overall, those are two generally positive dasha lords. 

The outlook for Trudeau seems mixed at best.  The Moon-Ketu dasha begins in December and will run until mid-2020. With Ketu in the 12th house, this doesn't bode well for Trudeau and his fragile minority government.  Troubles involving foreign countries are more likely and a sex scandal is possible as Venus aspects Ketu quite closely.  As it happens, Moon-Venus will be the next dasha period from mid-2020 to 2022.  Venus is with Rahu in the 6th so that also could be mixed for him with a possibility of legal problems involving females.

Minority governments do not adhere to a fixed election schedule so it is unknown when his next campaign will be.  If his government can stay in power for a while, then the Moon-Sun period starts in 2022 and would be a more promising time for him.  Election outcomes before that time look more uncertain.



Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks have moved higher over the past several days on hopes for a Brexit deal and and positive US corporate earnings.   This outcome wasn't too surprising as I thought the Jupiter-Pluto alignment would likely offer some support to market sentiment.  That said, I thought we might have seen more downside than what we got.

This week looks more bearish as Mars aligns with Ketu and Saturn.  The Mars-Saturn alignment isn't exact until Sunday the 27th so that could limit the overall negativity somewhat.  The Planet Transit Index has a negative bias that should give bulls pause. 

With Jupiter-Pluto now separating there could be less positive influence to offset any negative short term aspects.  While I would not rule out a positive weekly outcome, the downside risk seems elevated given this Mars transit.

For a more detailed analysis of the markets, please check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

The astrology of recession: Saturn, Jupiter and Pluto in 2020

(7 October 2019) Stocks have trended lower over the past week as surprisingly weak US manufacturing data has renewed recession concerns.  While Friday's middling US jobs report offered some respite, US markets were down for the week.  European and Asian markets were also generally lower as bonds and gold rallied. 

This bearish outcome was not unexpected as I thought the midweek Mercury-Mars alignment would likely correlate with some downside.   The late week rebound in the US and Europe also fit nicely with the entry of bullish Venus into Libra on Thursday and Friday. 

As bond yields are again testing their recent lows, the market is still focused on a possible recession next year.  The 10-year US Treasury is again yielding near 1.5% and remains the only game in town for many international investors who are seeking both safety and a positive return on capital.  With most Japanese and European government bonds with negative rates, money is flooding into both US equity and debt markets. 


Recession and planetary alignments

So how likely is a recession?  The planetary alignments would suggest a recession next year is more likely than not and certainly more likely than the ever-sanguine Federal Reserve.  Saturn is the planet of pessimism and restriction and it is often prominent during times of economic contraction and slowdown.  Saturn is due to conjoin Pluto and Jupiter in the first half of 2020.  Typically, close alignments between Saturn and other slow-moving planets increase the probability of economic difficulty. 

The last time Saturn, Pluto and Jupiter similarly conjoined was in 1981-1982.  This coincided with a 16-month long recession under Reagan that saw unemployment peak at 11% in November 1982 while the GDP fell by almost 3%.  We can see that Saturn was exactly conjunct Pluto at 4 Libra during the depth of the recession in late 1982 while Jupiter has moved past somewhat although still in the sign of Libra.

Interestingly, the exactly conjunction of Saturn and Jupiter occurred in July 1981 right at the time the recession began.  We should also note that the preceding Saturn-Jupiter conjunction occurred in 2000, the same year as another recession began.  We won't consider that case here since Pluto was not conjunct Saturn that year.   (N.B.  Saturn conjoins Jupiter every 20 years; Saturn conjoins Pluto every 35 years.  Saturn last conjoined both Jupiter and Pluto in 1820, and even then with a wider orb than in 2020)

This time around we will see these planets converge, albeit in a different sequence.  Saturn will first conjoin Pluto in January 2020, while Jupiter is due to make a wide five-degree conjunction with Saturn in May 2020 before both planets turn retrograde.  The exactly Saturn-Jupiter conjunction will then occur in December 2020.  

My general expectation is that these Saturn conjunctions with Pluto and Jupiter greatly increase the likelihood of a US recession in 2020.  Europe may already technically be in a recession so it may not take much for the US to follow suit, especially given the ongoing trade dispute with China and now the very real possibility of a Trump impeachment or resignation.

Moreover, I would note that the Saturn-Pluto conjunction in March 2020 will exactly oppose the natal Mercury (3 Cancer) in the US national horoscope.  Mercury is closely associated with commerce and economic activity so the Saturn-Pluto influence will likely have a negative impact.  As an alternative interpretation, we should also note that the affliction of Mercury could reflect the growing government crisis over impeachment since Mercury rules the 10th house in the chart and the 10th house symbolizes leaders and governments. 


Weekly Market Forecast

This week has started off on a bearish note as stocks were lower on Monday.  This produced a fairly predictable decline given the Sun-Saturn square aspect.  The rest of the week looks choppy at best with more down days possible as both Mars and the Sun will remain under some pressure from Saturn.  The late week looks somewhat more bullish, however, with Friday's Sun-Jupiter-Pluto alignment looking fairly good for an up day.


For a more detailed analysis of the markets, please check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.