Mueller finds no evidence of Russia-Trump conspiracy; Jupiter enters Sagittarius

(24 March 2019) They don't call Jupiter the Great Benefic for nothing.  Just ask President Donald Trump.  Today, US Special Counsel Robert Mueller finally handed down his report into the possible conspiracy between the Russian government and Trump campaign during the 2016 election.  Mueller found that there was no evidence for a conspiracy although he did not exonerate Trump for possible obstruction of justice charges.  While the full details of the report are not yet known, the initial impact has been positive for Trump and his beleaguered administration.

While I still expect the other shoe to drop for the Trump administration later this year, I was not surprised by this finding.  Trump's horoscope is looking pretty good these days, mostly due to the favourable placement of transiting Jupiter.  Jupiter (29 Scorpio) is slowing down now ahead of its retrograde station on April 10.  It is in close conjunction with his Moon (28 Scorpio) and also activates his Sun (29 Taurus) by opposition.  So this Jupiter transit was doubly positive for Trump since it aligned with both the Moon and Sun.  And with the upcoming station so close at hand at 0 Sagittarius, the transit was more likely to coincide with significant developments that would elevate his status and power.  The conjunction of Mars (1 Taurus) with his Midheaven (10th house cusp) was a very appropriate accent on the events of the day as Mars/10th house transits are often positive.

So is that it?  Is Trump now free and clear?  I don't think so. The summer still looks like his most difficult period as the protective effects of Jupiter diminish as it moves into the background in his chart.  Saturn will become more dominant once again as it will align with his Ascendant for several months around the time of its direct station.

Trump may well fall back into the soup later this week when Mars squares its natal position on Wednesday and Thursday. Interestingly, Mercury will end its retrograde cycle at the same time in an unusual conjunction with Neptune.  This will align with Trump's Ascendant and could coincide with some deception or confusion regarding communication.  Mercury-Neptune conjunctions are notorious for situations of confusion and deception and the particular placement of this conjunction at 22 Aquarius makes me think that Trump will suffer in some way.  New evidence against him may well come to light.

Any new developments this week are unlikely to completely undo the feeling of relief in the Trump camp but it could well indicate that the other investigations by the SDNY and the House of Representatives will get new life.  Whatever happens, I would expect his situation to significantly worsen by June.  His next solar return chart (June 14 2019) is extremely tense and suggests that his job may well be at stake. As astrology teaches us, what Jupiter gives Saturn can take away. 


Weekly Market Forecast

Jupiter's entry into Sagittarius could also help the stock market this week.   Stocks looked shaky last week following a fairly downbeat Fed statement on Wednesday.  While Jay Powell promised no more rate hikes in 2019, his more pessimistic tone about the US economy caught some investors off-guard.  The fragile state of the economy suggests the low rate environment will remain in place indefinitely and a rate cut could happen as soon as June.

Jupiter enters sidereal Sagittarius on Wednesday according to the Krishnamurti ayanamsha (Friday according to Lahiri) so I would expect some upside this week.  Tuesday's Moon-Jupiter conjunction may be the most bullish day on paper in that respect. Venus aligns with Uranus and Chiron on Wednesday so that may also provide a boost to sentiment.  The late week Mercury-Neptune conjunction is more of a question mark, however.  If stocks are up by Wednesday, then that might translate into some profit taking later in the week.  At this point, next week also looks somewhat more bearish as Mars aligns with Uranus and Chiron while Mercury is aspected by Saturn.  Gains may therefore be short-lived.

The end of this impressive post-Christmas rally may be getting rather close now.  Jupiter turns retrograde in early April (on April 10th) so that could prove to be significant.  I would not expect a reversal exactly on that date, however, but rather look as the month as a whole as having a higher potential for a change in the up trend.

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Markets await Fed decision tomorrow

(19 March 2019) The Federal Reserve meets tomorrow to issue its latest policy pronouncements on the state of the US economy.  Financial markets are not anticipating any changes in interest rates but Chair Jay Powell's language will be watched carefully as usual.  Since the Fed suddenly reversed itself in early January to a more dovish stance (i.e. no more hikes), stock markets have risen sharply as the low current interest rate environment can keep the debt-driven expansion afloat a while longer. 

While the continued low rates are good news for the markets, the economic data is starting to show signs of a slowdown.  A recession in the US is looking increasingly possible within the next 6-12 months.  Investors now have to weigh the relative benefit of the Fed's cheap money with the likelihood of lower corporate earnings. 

It is unclear what tone Powell will strike.  If he chooses to emphasize the slowdown in the economy, it could scare investors out of stocks.  He may also announce an end to QT (quantitative tightening) which has been reducing the Fed's balance sheet by selling the assets it bought during QE (2008-2014).  The end to the QT unwinding would be bullish, as long as the rest of his message didn't stray too far from his previous upbeat remarks about the economy. 

The planetary situation for tomorrow suggests a likely emphasis on prudence and caution.  Retrograde Mercury will fall under the exact aspect of Saturn tomorrow and this is more likely to symbolize cautious actions based on methodical analysis.  It is possible to see this both ways.  Caution may mean he is still very dovish with a possible end to QT.  But caution may also mean a bias towards prudent fiscal management which would tend to suggest a more hawkish approach in keeping with his preference for rate normalization (i.e. rates could rise again later in the year).  I should note that the Saturn-Mercury aspect also tends to be bearish in terms of overall sentiment.

But the picture is complicated due to the simultaneous alignment of the Moon, Venus, Mars and Jupiter, and the Lunar Nodes, Rahu and Ketu.  (We can throw in the Full Moon as well.)  While such multi-planet alignments tend to be bullish, the presence of Mars and Ketu in the mix here reduces the probability of gains tomorrow and for the rest of the week.  This increases the odds somewhat of a negative market reaction to the Fed decision.  While it appears bearish,  I would not say I have high confidence in that outcome as there are too many variables in play.  Nonetheless, the unusually high number of alignments raises the possibility for a large price move.

From a technical perspective, today's intraday reversal at 2850 on the SPX was a possible sign of some downside to come, depending on what the Fed does tomorrow.  

Even if we get some downside this week as I expect, the prospect for a rebound is quite good, since Jupiter will station retrograde on April 10th.  The time around Jupiter stations have a bullish bias which could offset any possible late March decline.  However, Saturn is also due to station retrograde on April 30th.  This tends to be bearish in the days around the station and may well undermine any preceding gains made under Jupiter's influence.

Taken together, this suggests there could significant moves in both directions in the weeks ahead.

For a more detailed analysis, please check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

To Brexit or not to Brexit, that is the question

(12 March 2019) The UK edged one step closer to the precipice today as Parliament voted down a second Brexit proposal by Prime Minister Theresa May.  It was a crushing defeat for Ms. May after apparently negotiating better terms with her EU counterpart in Brussels.  The UK Parliament is due to vote on a no-deal Brexit tomorrow (Wednesday) which is widely expected to be defeated.  It will then vote for an extension of Article 50 on Thursday to ask Brussels for a delay past the March 29th deadline to leave the EU.  If the Thursday vote passes, then anything is possible, including a fresh elections, a second referendum and maybe no Brexit at all. 

It's a chaotic situation with no easy solutions.  To be honest, I have no idea what's going happen.  When there is more than two possible outcomes to a situation, it is more difficult to make an astrological prediction. Typically, good transits point to a constructive resolution while bad transits coincide with tension, conflict and an ongoing state of frustration. But here we have at least four possible outcomes, each with its own pros and cons: no-deal Brexit, the postponement of Brexit (but only if the EU consents), fresh elections, or a second referendum.

From the UK's 1801 horoscope, we can clearly see the source of the current political stalemate in the UK.  Rahu (North Lunar Node) is conjunct the 10th house Moon, symbolizing the affairs of government as it pertains to the people.  Rahu is often a disruptive influence, and it does not combine well with the Moon.  This can produce uncertainty and emotional upset as well as an absence of order.  We can also see that Saturn and Pluto are opposing the Moon so that only makes the governing more difficult.  Saturn-Moon oppositions represent times of heaviness from worldly burdens that inflict lingering damage.  Pluto-Moon oppositions symbolize the coercive use of power without consent or respect.   These are all slow-moving aspects that will likely reflect more political difficulty in the months to come.  So that's point number one.

For today's failed vote, Mars is conjunct Mars (assertiveness, conflict) and Mercury is in a close 150 degree alignment with Saturn (unproductive work).   From across the ocean, it does seem as if the UK somehow has lost its ability to govern itself.  This Brexit drama has been going on for more than two years and seems to be far from resolution.

Wednesday's no-deal option seems unlikely to pass.  The transiting Moon-Jupiter alignment will aspect the natal Mercury (26 Scorpio) and this should allow for a measure of constructive compromise and positive outcomes.  Only a minority of the country (and Parliament) want a hard, no-deal Brexit so I wouldn't think this would be a likely outcome. 

However, there is an astrological argument for the "least worst" option of postponement of Brexit.  The delay vote is due on Thursday and will take place near the time when Venus is in a loose conjunction with natal Venus in sidereal Capricorn.  It's not really that close unfortunately, so I'm not highly confident that the delay option will carry the day.  But it does seem more likely than the hard Brexit option.  Late March and early April looks a bit better so we may see the EU agree to the delay of Article 50.  This would allow the UK to figure out its next move -- new negotiations, a new election or a new referendum. 

Whatever happens this week, I think the UK is still likely to have serious troubles over Brexit in the coming months.  I can see that the Saturn is due to station exactly on top of the natal Sun (19 Sagittarius) in August and September.  Since the Sun symbolizes government, this could well indicate an election and a likely change in government.  If there is an election during this period, Theresa May's Conservatives are likely to lose.  What a Labour government might mean for Brexit is anyone's guess.


Weekly Market Forecast

After last week's sharp sell-off, stocks have rebounded this week on expectation that the US-China trade deal may finally be near.   The Dow closed Tuesday at 25,554 while the S&P finished just under key resistance at 2791.  Indian stocks also moved higher as the Sensex closed Tuesday at 37,535.  This week's reversal was very much in keeping with expectations in last week's market forecast as I thought last week would likely see some significant declines given the retrograde Mercury alignment with Mars and Uranus. 

I also suggested that we would see a move higher this week on the alignment of the Sun with bullish Jupiter and Pluto.  That bullish energy has now manifested as Jupiter (28 Scorpio) aligned exactly with Pluto (28 Sagittarius) on Monday.  The Sun is within range now and will form an exact alignment on Wednesday. 

The rest of this week is harder to call.  I think the positive influence of the Jupiter-Pluto pairing is likely to see some residual effects, especially as Mercury retrograde backs into the alignment towards the end of the week.  This is a less reliable bullish factor but should nonetheless be seen as having a bullish bias.  We should sound a note of caution, however, due to the 120-degree Mars-Saturn alignment that is exact tomorrow (Wednesday). 

It is difficult to weigh the relative influence of these competing factors but I would say that the downside risk is elevated for Wednesday or perhaps into Thursday.  Futures are down a bit at the time of writing (11 pm EST), so we could see stocks under pressure on Wednesday.  But since the late week looks more positive, even a down day on Wednesday may not be enough to change the generally positive direction of the week as a whole. 

Next week may have a greater downside risk as Mercury and Venus align with Saturn early in the week, and then Mars aspects Jupiter in the second half of the week. 

For a more detailed analysis, please check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Mercury turns retrograde on Canada's Justin Trudeau

(4 March 2019)  It may be a good time to get your ducks in a row -- just in case.  Mercury, the planetary mischief-maker, is due to turn retrograde tomorrow, Tuesday, March 5.   Our solar system's innermost planet will station at 5 degrees of sidereal Pisces, and then begin its three-week backwards journey through the night sky.  It returns to normal forward motion on March 28 after stationing at 22 degrees of Aquarius. 

Mercury retrograde cycles have a bad reputation for bringing all manner of confusion, frustration and disruption to our normal routines.  Perhaps nobody knows this better than Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.   Actually, Trudeau has been on the defensive for the past month or so as his government is at the center of a corruption scandal that threatens to bring down his whole administration.   The opposition parties and many media pundits have been calling for a formal inquiry, and his resignation.

So far, two of his ministers have resigned, the Justice Minister Jody Wilson-Raybould on February 12 and and today, Treasury Board President Jane Philpott also resigned citing a loss of confidence in the government from its poor handling of the scandal involving the Quebec-based construction company, SNC-Lavalin.

Not only does Mercury turns retrograde tomorrow, but it turns retrograde just one degree away from Trudeau's 8th house natal Mars.  Mars in the 8th house symbolizes conflict and troubles from that which is hidden and unknown.  The 8th house is often seen as the house of embarrassment and scandals, among other things.  Mercury retrograde periods can often bring snafus and headaches, but when Mercury stations on a malefic planet in the chart like Mars, there is a much greater likelihood that the problems will the significant.   Generally speaking, the period several days before and after the retrograde and direct stations are the most potent. 

We can see from Trudeau's horoscope that his troubles are not be confined to this single Mercury Rx factor.  The larger problem is that Saturn is aspecting his Moon (23 Pisces) by forward square aspect.  This may not be a full-strength Vedic aspect, but it is nonetheless close enough that it can inflict damage and do harm.  Saturn-Moon squares are usually times of personal difficulty, often marked by feelings of alienation, disappointment and loneliness.  Interestingly, Saturn (23 Sagittarius) is also forming a 135 degree angle with his Ascendant (10 Leo).  Saturn's slow velocity here suggests the twin alignments with the Moon and the Ascendant have been building for weeks.  Trudeau's political problems intensified on February 8 when the media discovered the SNC-Lavalin scandal and then on Feb 12 when the Justice minister resigned.   At that time, Saturn was at 21 Sagittarius, so just two degrees from an exact square with the Moon. 

The outlook for Justin Trudeau looks difficult for the next several weeks at least.  Tomorrow, his recently resigned and former closest aide, Gerald Butts, is due to testify before the Justice Committee.  With Mercury due to station Rx that day, it seems unlikely that the grim political optics can improve.  They may well get worse.

And with Saturn due to station retrograde on April 30th, it is hard to see Trudeau quickly putting this scandal behind him.  Saturn will station at 26 Sagittarius, just one degree from an exact 135 degree alignment.  (Parenthetically, I would note that US Democrat wunderkind Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez may also suffer from this Saturn Rx station in April and May as it will exactly square her Sun at 26 Virgo.)   In fact, Saturn will be within range of his Ascendant and the Moon for most of the rest of 2019.  With an election upcoming on October 21, Trudeau will have an uphill battle for re-election.  And yet assuming he doesn't suddenly resign, I think his chances are good for re-election.  

Transiting Jupiter will be conjunct its natal position at 27 Scorpio at the time of the election so that is a positive factor.  Saturn will be three degrees away from its square with the Moon so that could relieve some of the negative pressure on him.  It's still close though and since Saturn will station one month before, it suggests a tense and onerous time for Trudeau. 

Uranus (10 Aries) will form a very constructive Grand Trine alignment with his Ascendant and Sun which should enhance his life outcomes.  Transiting Rahu will be deep in the 11th house of gains by that time so that is another plus.  Although Rahu has a chequered reputation, it does well in the 11th house and is often prominent during favourable events. 

And he will still be running the Moon-Mercury dasha period.  The Moon receives the aspect from Jupiter natally and by transit this year so that will offset some of the worst of Saturn's effects.  And Mercury rules his 11th house (Gemini) of gains and income and it is conjunct Jupiter in his 4th house.  Mercury should be a winning planet for him, even if it is not strong enough to prevent obstacles from emerging.  

I should say that Trudeau is likely to have a very stressful period in June when Mars and Saturn will both align with his Moon.  I wouldn't think this is enough to force him from office, but let's see what happens in the run-up to that alignment.  It does look like his life becomes significantly more difficult at that time, whatever the source.  So at this point, I would think Trudeau has a good chance to win re-election, even if his majority is reduced or he has to lead a minority government. 


Weekly Market Forecast

The approach of the Mercury retrograde period appeared to negatively impact investor sentiment today also as US stocks fell.   Last week, markets were fairly flat but the mood was still somewhat buoyant in growing anticipation of a US-China deal that could return global trade to the pre-Trumpian status quo ante.  It is unclear just when a deal will happen or what it will look like, however, as markets expressed some caution that any trade deal may not save the slowing economy.    Most of the economic data is weakening in the US, China and Europe and there is a rising risk of a recession this year or next year. 

Mercury turns retrograde on Tuesday but I am agnostic on whether that will be a decisive day.   More important is that Mercury will form a complex alignment with several planets through this week which could see further declines in the stock market.  Mercury (5 Pisces) will align closely with Uranus (5 Aries) and Chiron (5 Pisces) and also will form a 45 degree alignment with Mars at 20 Aries later in the week.  Wednesday and Thursday look arguably more bearish in this respect, as the the Sun and Neptune come under the aspect of Saturn and Moon conjoins Mercury on Thursday.

So as strong as this post-Christmas rebound has been, I think we will see a pause and pullback this week.   I'm less convinced this the start of a big decline that will revisit the December lows, however.   For example, next week looks more positive as Jupiter aligns with Pluto and the Sun.  The revisiting of the December lows will likely take much longer -- probably some weeks (or even months) after the Jupiter retrograde station on April 10.

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