The NYSE turns 226: the outlook for the year ahead

(23 May 2018) The New York Stock Exchange turned 226 last week as the venerable capitalist institution remains the predominant stock market in the world.  The NYSE was founded on May 17, 1792 around 10.10 a.m., although the exact time is a matter of some conjecture.  As we know, the birthday represents a special symbolic significance for the year ahead as the Sun returns to its position at the time of its "birth" or founding.  The resulting Solar Return chart can therefore provide important clues for what will transpire over the subsequent 12 months.  A strong chart where benefics Venus and Jupiter are prominent will often foretell of prosperity.  A more difficult chart where Mars and Saturn are highlighted can represent disappointment and obstacles.

The Solar Return chart for the NYSE this year actually occurred on May 21st, since that was the day that the Sun returned to its natal position at 6 Taurus 25.  This four-day lag from its birthday is due to the precession of the equinoxes which gradually shifts the positions the planets relative to the fixed stars.  So what does the Solar Return chart reveal? Will stocks be higher or lower by this time next May? 

The chart is actually quite mixed.  There are strongly positive AND strongly negative patterns.  This suggests that stocks will likely be volatile and will experience both strong rallies and significant corrections over the next twelve months.  The Mercury-Jupiter-Neptune alignment is very bullish and suggests that rallies will be sizable.  The fact that it lines up closely with the Ascendant is another reason why stocks could move higher overall. 

If there were an absence of negative configurations in the chart, then I would think stocks would generally rise into 2019.  However, Mars squares Uranus (just one degree past exact) and also aligns with the Saturn-Neptune opposition in the natal chart.  It furthermore also picks up the MC/IC within two or three degrees.  This is a strongly negative pattern that should translate into some significant downside this year.

Also, Saturn (14 Sagittarius) and Rahu (14 Cancer) both align with natal Venus (14 Aries) exactly.  While neither Saturn nor Rahu cast a full strength aspect to Venus, the closeness of the alignment suggest periodic difficulties realizing happiness and value (Venus).  But while there are two negative alignments, we should note that neither one involves the natal Sun or Moon which are more fundamental influences on the chart as a whole.  If the Sun and Moon are unafflicted as is the case here, then markets are less likely to undergo a new bear market.  Corrections are still possible, especially given the negative alignments, but they are less likely to offset periods of positive trends.

Overall, there may be enough positive energy in the chart to suggest at least a relative flat year in terms of performance, perhaps with a very modest bullish bias.  But the mixed indications make this a very ambiguous call, at least in terms of this Solar Return chart. 


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks have generally gone sideways over the past week or so.  In keeping with last week's market forecast, the previous week was somewhat bearish as President Trump's attempt to negotiate a better trade agreement with China has yet to yield any results.  I thought we might have seen more of a pullback, especially from last week's alignment of Mercury, Saturn and Rahu. But US stocks have proven to be quite resilient thus far and seem poised to break out higher fairly soon. 

I think the approaching Full Moon next Tuesday could hint at some skittishness since it aligns with the Saturn-Rahu pattern quite closely.  More immediately, tomorrow's (Thursday) alignment of the Moon-Saturn-Rahu looks bearish and should generate some downside which could even manifest into Friday.  Next week may see improving sentiment as Venus moves into alignment with bullish Jupiter and idealistic Neptune.  This Grand Trine alignment is exact on June 1st.  While we could see some big moves in both directions next week, the upside prospects seem fairly good from an astrological perspective.


Simplified Planetary Transits for May 21 - June 1

Mon/21   Mercury-180-Jupiter-120-Neptune          +2

Tue/22     Mercury-180-Jupiter-120-Neptune          +2
                 Moon-120-Saturn-150-Rahu                  -1

Wed/23   Sun-120-Mars                                          -1
                  
Thu/24     Sun-120-Mars                                         -1
                 Moon-90-Venus-180-Saturn                   -2 

Fri/25      Mercury-120-Pluto                                   -1   

Mon/28   (US closed) Sun-150-Saturn-150-Rahu    -2

Tue/29    Full Moon: Sun-180-Moon-Saturn            -1

Wed/30  Venus-120-Jupiter-120-Neptune              +2

Thu/31    Venus-120-Jupiter-120-Neptune             +2
                Moon-0-Saturn-30-Mars-0-Ketu              -2

Fri/1        Venus-120-Jupiter-120-Neptune              +2


For more details and analysis on market trends for this week, this month and this year, please check out my weekly MVA Investor Newsletter.  The newsletter is published every Saturday and includes extended discussion of US and Indian stock markets, as well as gold, oil and major currencies.

Stocks gain on hopes for US-China trade deal

(14 May 2018) US stocks started the week on a mildly positive note on hopes for a US-China trade deal.  Fears of a trade war have receded now that Presidents Trump and Xi are negotiating a way to allow American agricultural products into China in exchange for US market access for electronics giant ZTE.  Monday's gain followed on a very bullish performance last week as the Dow gained more than 600 points.  Moderate inflation data and the increasingly real prospect of peace on the Korean peninsula appeared to negate previous worries about rising interest rates and geopolitical disruption in the Middle East.

The gains were in keeping with expectations in last week's market forecast as I thought the Venus and Jupiter influences would likely have the final word.  The rest of this week looks less positive for the markets, however. 

Tomorrow (Tuesday) Mars will form a square aspect with Uranus.  This is often a bearish influence.  The negativity may well peak in the afternoon in the US when the Moon joins the alignment.  Interestingly, this will integrate the natal Sun in the NYSE chart.  This is a reason to expect stocks will undergo a significant fall sometime this week. Tuesday is a prime candidate in that respect. 

However, the proximity of the bullish Venus-Jupiter aspect could offset some of the Mars-Uranus-Moon alignment on Tuesday.  The Venus alignment could also extend into Wednesday so that offers the possibility of a more positive midweek period.  The Moon-Venus conjunction on Thursday morning is another possible source of optimism which could keep the rally afloat a while longer. 

Thursday and Friday's alignment of Mercury, Saturn, and Rahu (the North Lunar Node) has more of a bearish feel to it.  Even if we see some up days this week, the twin effects of Mars-Uranus and Mercury-Saturn-Rahu look strong enough to end this little rebound for now.

The ongoing Jupiter-Neptune aspect is bullish and is one reason why stocks have bounced recently.  It will be in effect for another couple of weeks.  However, some of the positive vibes of this aspect are being gradually offset by the Saturn-Nodal alignment.  This is a nasty looking pattern that will be in a close alignment for several weeks due to the retrograde motion of Saturn.  The added problem for financial markets is that Mars will gradually move into a conjunction with the South Lunar Node (Ketu) in early June. This could act as an additional trigger for the bearishness of the Saturn-Nodal pattern. 



Simplified Planetary Outlook for week of May 14 - 18 (Transits only)


Mon     Venus-0-Sun                                +2
Mon     Moon-180-Jup-120-Nep               +1
Mon     Sun-135-Saturn                             -1
Mon     Mars-90-Uranus                            -1

Tue      Mars-90-Uranus-30-Moon             -2
Tue      Sun-0-Moon (New Moon)              +1

Wed     Mars-90-Uranus                            -2
Wed     Jupiter-150-Moon-90-Neptune      +1

Thurs   Moon-0-Venus                              +1
Thurs   Merc-120-Saturn-150-Rahu          -2

Fri        Mars-45-Neptune-45-Uranus       -2
Fri        Merc-120-Saturn-150-Rahu          -2

For more details and analysis on market trends for this week, this month and this year, please check out my weekly MVA Investor Newsletter.  The newsletter is published every Saturday and includes extended discussion of US and Indian stock markets, as well as gold, oil and major currencies.

US stocks volatile ahead of jobs report

(3 May 2018) Stocks are looking a bit shaky this week.  While the Fed graciously left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and Corporate America continued to post impressive Q1 earnings, investors are still not entirely at peace with the world.  Bond yields remain in an up trend as inflation threatens to undermine economic growth and the Trump White House hasn't yet figured out a way to avoid a trade war with China.  So it's no wonder that the Dow is down almost 400 points this week as markets look for their next catalyst.

The down week was less surprising to us since the planets looked a bit tense this week.   As I mentioned in the previous market forecast, the early week Sun-Saturn-Rahu alignment hinted at more downside, as did the entry of Mars into sidereal Capricorn on Wednesday.  Today's steep morning sell-off to 23,531 (well below the closely watched 200-day moving average) was likely a hangover of that Mars-into-Capricorn effect but stocks mostly recovered by the close as Mercury tightened its alignment with bullish Jupiter and Neptune.

We can see how the current planetary set up is activating the chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (26 May 1896).  On the plus side, Jupiter (25 Libra) is nicely situated in the 1st house while Rahu (North Lunar Node) is well-placed in the 10th approaching its conjunction with Jupiter.  But Saturn (14 Sagittarius) is still quite close to the equal 3rd house cusp at 17 Libra (N.B. the chart inception time and hence the house cusps are approximate so there is a big asterisk there). 

More problematic is that Saturn is now aligning with the Sun (13 Taurus) and Moon (13 Scorpio).  To be sure, this is not a proper full strength Vedic aspect, but I have found that these near-exact alignments are partial strength aspects which can still exert an influence.  The Saturn influence in this chart is bearish and may well outweigh the less-positive Jupiter and Rahu placements.

The same goes for Mars, now in the first degree of Capricorn.  While it does not aspect either Venus (1 Taurus) or Mercury (1 Gemini), it nonetheless aligns with both of them using 30 degree reckoning and this should be seen as another negative influence on stocks on Friday.  Since Mars moves less than one degree per day, it may also be a factor while stocks had difficult today (Thursday). 

Ultimately, I am uncertain what stocks will do tomorrow after the jobs report.  As always, the planets offer a mixed picture where different scenarios are possible.  The alignment of Mercury with bullish Jupiter and Neptune will still be in effect so that could generate some upside at some point.  That may not be saying much given how choppy trading has been this week.  The problem for the bullish scenario is that there are some important negative configurations in place.  The bullish influences could outweigh the negatives but that may be wishful thinking.  I would think the downside risks are elevated and hence a negative outcome is more likely.  This is perhaps even a bit more likely given the conjunction of the Moon with bearish Saturn during the trading day.  The opposition of the Sun to the natal Saturn in the Dow chart is another minus.

The fairly high number of aspects in play suggests the moves could be large.  This is likely the case in any event as the monthly US jobs report is often a heavily traded event.  Next week looks somewhat better, however, as the Sun and Venus align with Jupiter early in the week.  Regardless of what happens tomorrow, I would think stocks could rebound early next week.  Whether it happens tomorrow or next week, the risks are real that the Dow will again reach its previous low of 23,344 or lower.


Simplified Planetary Outlook for week of May 7 - 11 (Transits only)
(N.B separating alignments are often weakening; approaching alignments tend to be strengthening)

Mon  Mercury-90-Pluto  bearish (separ)                     -1
Mon  Sun-180-Jupiter  bullish (appr)                          +2
Mon  Moon-Venus-90-Neptune  bullish (appr)            +2

Tues  Sun-180-Jupiter  bullish (appr)                          +2
Tues  Venus-150-Jupiter  bullish (appr)                       +1

Wed  Venus-150-Jupiter-180-Sun  bullish (separ)       +1
Wed  Mercury-90-Mars  bearish  (appr)                       -1
Wed  Moon -60- Saturn  bearish (appr)                       -1

Thurs  Moon-Jupiter-120-Neptune   bullish  (appr)      +1
Thurs  Mercury-90-Mars-0-Uranus  bearish  (appr)      -2

Fri  Mercury-90-Mars-0-Uranus  bearish   (appr)          -3
Fri  Sun-30-Venus-150-Pluto  (appr)                           +1



For more details and analysis on market trends for this week, this month and this year, please check out my weekly MVA Investor Newsletter.  The newsletter is published every Saturday and includes extended discussion of US and Indian stock markets, as well as gold, oil and major currencies.