US government shutdown hammers markets

(25 December 2018) The US government shutdown is just the latest development to sideswipe the stock market.  The month of December has seen the Dow lose 4000 points as investors are re-evaluating their risk appetite against the background of an increasingly chaotic White House.   Markets fell in early December as hopes dimmed for a US-China trade deal and then selling accelerated last week after Fed Chair Jerome Powell issued an unexpectedly hawkish statement about rate hikes in 2019.  Then on Friday the US government shut down due to a disagreement over funding for the US-Mexico border wall, a key Trump election promise.  President Trump has now made a bad situation worse through his repeated criticisms of the Fed Chair Powell and his stated desire to fire him.  

All this chaos and uncertainty was too much for many investors as they rushed to the exits rather than waiting for a happy ending to the latest episode of The Trump Show.  In last week's post, I mistakenly thought there was a plausible case for some upside following Wednesday's Fed meeting.    However, I didn't have high confidence in that forecast given the presence of some significant offsetting energies.  The Full Moon of Saturday the 22nd was a potential red flag in that respect as Full Moons tend to coincide with periods of market weakness. 

But now that the Full Moon is behind us, what are the prospects for the stock market?  In the short term, a lot will depend on when the US government shutdown will end. While I haven't made a thorough study of US government shutdowns, one astrological pattern I have noticed is that Mercury tends to be destabilized at the time of the shutdown.  One main reason is that Mercury rules the 10th house (Virgo) of government in the USA national horoscope (6.30 p.m. 4 July 1776).  When it is afflicted by transit, government is more likely to be dysfunctional in some way. 

We can see that Mercury (3 Cancer) is currently conjoined by transiting Rahu (North Lunar Node).  Rahu is often a disruptive influence as it is associated with interruptions of the status quo and the seeking of new solutions, irrespective of consequences.  As it happens, we have another disruptive influence now, as Uranus (4 Aries) forms a 90-degree alignment with Mercury as well.  In Western astrology, Uranus has similar symbolism of sudden changes and upsets, especially when in hard (90,180) aspect to other planets.  So that is a double dose of disruption and dysfunction for Mercury-related activities such as government.  And we should note that since commerce and stock trading are also in the purview of Mercury, its affliction here aptly reflects the current sell-off in the markets.

We can also see that Mars, the planet of conflict and frustration, was front and center at the time of the shutdown on Friday night as it exactly squared its natal position at 0 Gemini.  The fact that Saturn (16 Sagittarius) is now opposite all of those Gemini planets, especially Jupiter, is not helpful for any speedy resolution to the entrenched animosity in Washington. 

By way of comparison, we can see some similar patterns at the time of the famous Clinton-Gingrich shutdown in November 1995.  Amazingly, the Lunar Nodes and Uranus are again aligned with Mercury.  This time Rahu is square to Mercury within one degree while Uranus is exactly opposite Mercury.  The 1995 shutdown only lasted for five days but marked the beginning of a very dysfunctional period in US politics as Republicans sought to undermine the Clinton presidency at every turn.  Indeed, there was a second shutdown just four weeks later that lasted three weeks.

But while there are some planetary correlates for a shutdown, it is less clear how to spot a resolution.  The 1995 shutdown ended as the Sun and Mercury aligned with Rahu and hence with natal Mercury.  The apparent completion of the Rahu-Mercury energy by the Sun and Mercury could be seen as positive, although there were no obvious benefic aspects in play.  Similarly, the end of the second shutdown on January 6, 1996 lacks clarity.  Mars had just moved past its opposition aspect to Mercury a day or two prior as if to signal a level of maximum frustration.  Once it moved past Mercury, the shutdown ended.  I would have expected some benefic transit involving Jupiter or Venus to symbolize a level of peace and cooperation between the two sides.  But it's not really here.

This time around we can spot an interesting parallel with Mars.  Mars will align with Rahu and that natal Mercury on Wednesday and Thursday this week.  On the face of it, this is a negative influence on the USA's Mercury which is likely to translate into more downside in the markets.  And yet if the 1995-6 shutdown patterns hold true here, Mars will only have move a little past Mercury for the negativity to diminish and for a resolution of the shutdown to occur.  This could mean a resolution is possible as early as Thursday-Friday this week, although I would not say I had high confidence in that expectation.  It seems more likely that next week's alignment of Venus and Mercury with Rahu-Mercury is a safer and more prudent position to take for timing of the end of the government shutdown. 

In market terms, I would think we could see additional declines Wednesday but Thursday looks more positive, even if it may not signal a formal shutdown deal.  The upcoming Jupiter-Neptune alignment in January suggests that a significant rebound is approaching.  All of which suggests we are probably getting very close to a bottom in the markets, even if it proves temporary.

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The Fed's Jay Powell: Santa or Scrooge?

(17 December 2018)  All eyes are on Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell this week.  Given recent volatility in financial markets, this Wednesday's FOMC statement and press conference will be more carefully watched than usual.  Up to now, Powell had indicated a preference for raising rates in December and then several more times through 2019.  This path of "interest rate normalization" was intended to keep inflation under control to avoid overheating the strong US economy. 

But recent economic data have been more mixed and could force the Fed to rethink its approach.  The US housing sector is showing signs of slowing, and global growth is also looking weaker as China may be compelled to undertake yet another stimulus program.  And then there are the financial markets themselves. 

While it is not an explicit part of the Fed's mandate, it is clear that a falling stock market undermines the "wealth effect" which can thereby dampen investment and business activity.  And since the stock market is sitting precariously on key technical support levels (SPX = 2600, Dow = 24,000), the market may force the Fed's hand.  More than a few observers are now calling for the Fed to save the market by either cancelling its widely telegraphed December hike, or more likely, to dial back its hawkish plan for three or four hikes in 2019, to two or even just one. 

So will Fed Chair Powell be Santa or Scrooge on Wednesday?  And more to the point, how will the market react?  His personal horoscope looks a little stressed but nothing too major just yet.  Mars is aspecting his Moon by the full strength 8th house aspect but that may simply reflect the enormous personal stress Powell is under given the historical significance of this rate decision.  Rahu (North Lunar Node) aspects the natal Mars but it is past exact and thus likely diminishing in its influence. 

As a general rule, I would think that if the market sells off sharply after Wednesday, it should show up in Powell's chart since it is unlikely that he would desire this kind of outcome.  Of course, we cannot know for sure what Powell and the Fed really wants, since a sell-off would at least push more investors into bonds thus lowering yields.  Lower rates on the burgeoning US debt could be very much what want the Fed ultimately wants, but perhaps not at the expense of all those 401Ks.

Therefore, we can say that Powell's horoscope doesn't really provide evidence for a bullish or bearish outcome this week.  I think Powell is likely to become more frustrated and depressed in 2019 as Saturn closely squares his Virgo Moon.  This will likely reflect the bear market that I can see emerging in 2019. 

But for now the transits similarly seem somewhat mixed.  For the bulls, Mercury conjoins Jupiter on Friday and could well correspond with a favorable reaction to the Wednesday Fed statement.  And yet there is reason to be cautious in this assessment.  First, the Mercury-Jupiter conjunction aligns closely with Saturn.  This introduces a somewhat more negative spin on the proceedings, even if it doesn't quite push the needle over in the bearish column. 

The other big problem this week is that we are approaching a Full Moon on Saturday, the 22nd.  Full Moons tend to be bearish so it could be more difficult for markets to rally before the Full Moon takes place.  The market declined at the time of the October and November Full Moons so there is some risk this could happen again. 

But I would think a bullish outcome is boosted because of the multi-planet alignment with Venus.  Venus is in a 120 degree alignment with Neptune (within one degree) and Venus also aligns with the Lunar Nodes, Chiron and the Sun if we include multiples of 15 degrees.  While the bullish case is less clear than I would like, all those Venus aspects are hard to reconcile with a negative market reaction the Fed on Wednesday.  It therefore seems more likely that stocks will rise after the FOMC meeting.

So even with the planetary overview, there remains considerable uncertainty about what will happen this week.  But my reading of the planetary influences should make bears uncomfortable as the net effect looks more bullish than bearish, even if I won't be surprised either way.  Using a 0-100 financial astrology index, I would say the index is greater than 50 this week, probably in the 60-70 range, especially after Wednesday at 2 p.m.  The early week could be more negative. 

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Stocks rise on 90-day US-China trade truce

(3 December 2018)  Stocks are poised to rally further on Monday after the weekend agreement by the US and China to delay the imposition of any possible further tariffs by 90 days.  This truce in the trade way is the latest piece of good news for financial markets after stocks bottomed out during Thanksgiving week.  Since then, investors have also cheered the Fed's more dovish comments indicative of fewer interest rate hikes for 2019.  A more gradual return to normal interest rates would be welcome by heavily indebted companies and consumers alike. 

This strong rebound is not too surprising from our astrological vantage point.  To be sure, I had expected some downside at some point during the Mercury retrograde cycle (Nov 16 - Dec 6) and that has come to pass given the final dip we saw into the US holiday week on Nov 23.  But Mercury retrograde cycles are usually not all bearish and so we have seen a rebound last week and this week has also started on a bullish foot.  As I had forecast in my weekly subscriber newsletter, last week's triple conjunction of the Sun, Mercury and Jupiter was very likely going to coincide with a rally of some size.  I wasn't sure how strong it would be but it certainly looked bullish.  (N.B. Readers will have to excuse my absence from this space over the past few weeks as I have been busy while doing some travelling.  I have kept publishing the newsletter during this time but could not write posts on the website.)

As far as this week goes, the rally today seems appropriate given the Moon-Venus-Uranus alignment.  As an added plus, this lines up nicely with the Ascendant-Descendant of the NASDAQ horoscope.  This horoscope is a good proxy for US markets as a whole.  And yet the planets for the rest of this week suggest that stocks are less likely to extend their gains towards the end of the week.  The problem is that Mars conjoins Neptune while both are in a 90-degree alignment with the Sun.  This introduces a downside risk that has been absent for the last week or so.  It needn't always manifest as a decline since multiple planet alignments are less predictable than two-planet alignments, however. 

But an additional bearish factor here is that the Sun is conjunct the natal Mars in the NASDAQ horoscope.  This increases the probability of a pullback this week.  The other alignment I am watching is the Mercury direct station on Thursday and Friday.  By itself, this is neither bullish nor bearish.  But the station will occur in an exact 120 degree alignment with Rahu, the North Lunar Node.  This is a destabilizing influence on collective psychology where expectations and analysis may be distorted or disrupted.  Therefore, this increases the risk of some downside this week also. 

Of course, the technical analysis of the market suggests that a pullback is likely quite soon.  The S&P 500 has reached its previous interim highs from mid-October and mid-November.  While it is possible stocks will just continue to power higher, a pullback at the 2800-2820 level is more likely.  Futures are pointing to an opening at that level so we shall see how strong the Moon-Venus influence is.

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Stocks vulnerable as Mercury retrograde approaches

 (12 November 2018) It's that time again.  Mercury is due to station retrograde later this week on Friday, November 16.  Even among the non-astrologically-inclined, most people have heard of Mercury retrograde.  They know it connotes something bad or unexpected, and that things are more likely to go haywire during the three-week period when it moves backwards in the night sky.  As the mythological winged messenger, Mercury symbolizes communication, commerce, transportation and rational thought, among other things. 

When Mercury is moving in normal direct motion, it is believed that there is a greater likelihood for things to work out as planned.  But every four months or so, it stations retrograde (Rx) and appears to move backwards across 15-18 degrees of arc.  This departure from its normal motion conjures up images of hassles, delays, technical breakdowns, computer viruses and the like.  The most famous Mercury Rx station in recent times was election night in the US in November 2000 which produced the unprecedented Bush-Gore stalemate.  The election outcome was undecided until it was settled finally in the Supreme Court a month later.

One of the best ways to see how Mercury retrograde may (or may not) be working, is to look at how the stock market performs during its Rx periods.  The theory holds that stocks should be less positive and more vulnerable to declines, either through actual malfunctions in the stock exchange, or more commonly through misunderstandings and unexpected news in the economic data that traders rely on for their buy or sell decisions.  So we can ask: is Mercury retrograde really bearish for stocks?

In my view, Mercury retrograde is only one factor out of many and is less likely to be decisive.   Other alignments may override its influence, although I suspect it has a negative bias.  It is similar to the Venus retrograde periods in that respect.  They don't always correlate with declines, but the downside risks rise during the Rx period. 

I haven't done an exhaustive study by any means but I did want to present some recent Mercury Rx history here.  As these two charts for 2017 and 2018 show, each Mercury retrograde period has featured at least one dip, typically near the beginning of its retrograde period.  It doesn't appear to strongly correlate with an overall negative performance although that may happen in some situations where other bearish patterns are in play.

The April 2017 period was modestly bearish for the first week or two after the Rx station but stocks recovered and pushed higher by the time Mercury resumed its forward motion in May.  The August-September 2017 Rx period was more bearish as the Dow fell soon after the station and didn't recover.  The December 2017 Rx period was quite bullish actually, although we should note that stocks fell for a few days immediately following the Rx station. 

The March-April 2018 period was bearish to start and marked the important April 2nd low for the stock market.  Prices rebounded by the end of the Rx period, however.  The July-Aug 2018 period was more bearish, perhaps as stocks reversed lower immediately after Mercury turned retrograde on July 26th.  While stocks rebounded by the end of the period, it was generally negative. 

And that brings up to the next period from November 16 to December 7.  Stocks are down sharply already in the US today (Monday).  I think this negative bias is likely to continue this week as the Rx period gets closer.  This is less to do with Mercury turning retrograde than the fact that it will square Neptune later this week.  This is a pretty bearish set up. 

But if recent Rx periods are any guide, then we are likely to see stocks experience at least one significant pullback after Friday, the 16th and before December 7th.  Between the Mercury retrograde period, its Neptune square, and negative alignments of Mars this week, the midterm election rebound is looking quite fragile at the moment.  A retest of the October low seems more likely than not.

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Stocks bounce after bad week; Q3 earnings in focus

(29 October 2018) Stocks sold off sharply last week on renewed fears that Trump's trade war will reduce revenues and profits of many large US corporations.  The Dow lost 3% on the week and closed below 25,000 for the first time since July.  Indian stocks joined the global sell-off as the Sensex fell almost 1000 points and came close to testing its March low. 

Stocks have rebounded here on Monday in Europe and the US on the proverbial oversold bounce.  Besides bargain hunting, investors may also be looking forward to corporate earnings as some big names will report Q3 earnings this week.  Facebook reports on Tuesday, Apple reports on Thursday, and Exxon Mobil on Friday.  While it is still possible the news could disappoint the market, at least it changes the subject for a few days away from the gloom that has been hanging over the US market during October. 

Last week's decline was in keeping with my bearish expectation as I thought the Saturn influence would be problematic at very least.  Saturn was aligned with the Sun and retrograde Venus during the week so there was good reason to be cautious.  If that weren't enough, Wednesday's Full Moon also suggested that caution might be a more prudent strategy.  In fact, Wednesday turned out to be the worst day of the week.

Not surprisingly, this week has started off on a more positive note as the Sun and Venus have moved away from Saturn's influence.  In addition, Mercury conjoined bullish Jupiter today and both will align with Rahu (North Lunar Node) and Chiron this week so that is another reason to think that we could see stocks rebound further.  We can also see how the Mercury-Jupiter conjunction in Scorpio is aligning with the Mercury-Sun conjunction in Taurus in the NYSE chart.   This looks fairly positive in any event.  The Moon joins the alignment tomorrow (Tuesday Oct 30, see chart), so it seems likely we will have more gains this week.  Venus also aligns with Rahu and Uranus so that is another potentially positive influence.  It's difficult to be certain which other days may be bullish although I think Thursday's Moon-Mars opposition could be bearish.

So is the correction over?  I'm not sure, although I suspect there could be some more significant weakness upcoming later in November and possibly into December.  Whether or not it creates lower lows is another question.

For more details on possible scenarios for this correction in the coming days, weeks and months, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday.  I cover US and Indian stock markets, as well as currencies, oil and gold.

Stocks rebound ahead of US midterm elections

(6 November 2018) Stocks have rebounded since bottoming in last week on hopes that a trade deal with China may happen sooner rather than later.  The Dow is back over 25,000 while India's Sensex is now trading near 35,000 ahead of the Diwali holiday break.  The rebound was more or less expected given the fairly positive planetary alignments in recent days involving Jupiter and Mercury.  This week has also leaned bullish on the Venus-Moon-Uranus alignment. 

However, the US midterm elections take place today and could theoretically upset the market's temporary calm. While I think the Democrats are very likely to win the House, I suspect the market has discounted that outcome already.  Therefore, I would not necessarily expect a big reaction in the stock market on Wednesday. 

The New Moon at 21 Libra could be a bit bearish since it opposes the Saturn in the NASDAQ chart.  I would tend to think that a strong rally is a less likely outcome on Wednesday and beyond.  Also Mars is in the first degree of Aquarius at midweek and aligns with Rahu. This is another less-than-positive looking pattern.  But Friday's Mars-Venus alignment and Moon-Mercury conjunction perhaps make a stronger case for some downside later in the week.  With the Fed meeting on Thursday, some changes may be afoot.

The BSE chart illustrates how the approaching Venus-Mars 120 degree alignment could indicate some significant moves in the coming days.  The Venus on the Ascendant is usually positive, however the Mars is more of a question mark.  This week could go either way actually, although I would be wary about Saturn's square aspect to the Moon (12 Virgo) in this chart.  If stocks stay afloat this week, the next week will likely be a different story.  We can see the transits for next Wednesday the 14th puts Mars in a more prominent position for this chart along with Rahu and Uranus.  Mars is usually bad news for the markets. 

The bottom line is I don't have a strong opinion for where stocks will go this week.  I don't think the planets lean strongly bullish or bearish.  So perhaps the rebound can continue.  But I would say that next week looks more negative as Mars aligns with Rahu and Uranus.  Bulls should tread carefully.

For more details on possible market directions in the coming weeks and months, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday.  I cover US and Indian stock markets, as well as currencies, oil and gold.

Stocks fall again as Trump's trade war begins to bite

(23 October 2018) Stocks are falling again today as the market begins to digest the fallout of Trump's trade war.  There is growing concern that China's economy is in trouble while bellwether Caterpillar disappointed investors with their forward earnings guidance today.  Rising costs and tariffs were specifically mentioned as the reason for the expected sales slowdown.  The Dow has fallen 500 points so far, and is again trading under 25,000 for the first time since early July.  This is all bad news for Trump, of course, as the midterm elections are just two weeks away.

The negative performance is not surprising given this week's planetary alignments.  Not only is Venus still retrograde (and will remain so until November 16), but it is in close alignment with Saturn.  This introduces an elevated risk of declines.  In addition, Mercury forms a rough 45 degree alignment with Saturn which may add to the overall cautious mood in global markets so far this week.  The Sun is also in a volatile alignment with Uranus and the Lunar Nodes.  It is not a bullish picture to be sure. 

We can also see the current tense alignment manifest in the horoscope of the NYSE.  That Sun-Uranus-Lunar Node (Rahu/Ketu) alignment is hitting the Saturn-Neptune opposition almost exactly today.  Saturn-Neptune operates as a negative axis which will tend to coincide with down days when hit with multiple planet alignments as we have here.  The Sun is the fastest moving of the three and is acting as the trigger planet.  Moreover, transiting Mars is opposite the Ascendant, just a couple degrees away.  This is also a negative influence in this densely packed chart.

The Venus-Saturn alignment is also hitting a key point in the NYSE chart.  Venus is sitting on the IC opposite the MC or 10th house cusp while Saturn is 120 degrees away.  Saturn is also casting its full strength 270 degree square aspect to the natal Rahu (Lunar Node).  The Venus-Saturn pattern here with the MC may not be a clearly negative factor by itself, but the fact that it aligns with natal Rahu (11 Virgo) makes it more likely to coincide with declines than gains.

So what happens next?  The Sun is due to conjoin Venus later this week as both planets will be in alignment with Saturn.  A strong rebound looks unlikely with this pattern and it could well signal another down day or two this week.  Next week looks more promising perhaps as Mercury conjoins Jupiter in early Scorpio on Monday and Tuesday.  Transiting Mercury-Jupiter will also be opposite the Mercury-Sun conjunction in Taurus in the NYSE chart so that offers a reasonable chance for a rebound.

For more details and analysis of possible market scenarios in the weeks and months ahead, please see my weekly investor newsletter.   It comes out every Saturday and covers US and Indian stocks, as well as currencies, oil and gold.

Stocks plunge with Venus Rx; Trump blames "loco" Fed

(15 October 2018) Stocks tumbled across the world last week on worries that rising interest rates would undermine economic growth.  US stocks fell 5% on the week as the Dow and the S&P 500 traded below the all-important 200-day moving average.  President Donald Trump saw fit to lay blame for the decline on the Fed which he described as "loco" (i.e. crazy) for raising rates too quickly.  One thing's for sure in this White House is that when something bad happens, it's never Trump's fault.  This is doubly true now that Trump and the GOP are facing the likelihood of loss of the House and possibly even the Senate in the upcoming midterm elections.  For the pro-business Trump, he desperately needs stock prices to be as high as possible in order to justify his claim that his policies are working and America is once again "winning".

The decline in the stocks market is in keeping with our expectations of the bearish effect of the Venus retrograde cycle.  As I noted in last week's post, the once-every-18-month Venus retrograde cycle is more often correlated with declines, especially if the market has been rallying beforehand.  Venus turned retrograde on Friday, October 5 and will continue its apparent backward journey through the sky until November 16. 

As I suggested last week, the entire cycle isn't always negative from start to finish.  Instead, it should be seen as a 40-day period when some kind of meaningful decline is more likely to occur, even if stocks may sometimes recover before the end of the retrograde cycle.  In that sense, the Venus Rx cycle has already fulfilled its bearish potential already, regardless if it rebounds or not by mid-November.

While US markets are generally lower at the time of writing (Monday midday), this week stocks could see a brief rebound.  Monday's Mercury-Venus conjunction looks somewhat positive although the conjunction with the Mars node reduces the probability of gains from high to moderate.  The late week Mercury-Mars square aspect looks clearly more negative, however, so that increases the likelihood that the rebound may fail as early as Wednesday or perhaps Thursday.  Friday's Sun-Moon-Jupiter looks more positive, however, especially if there has been some more selling in the days prior.

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Venus turns retrograde: stocks fall as interest rates rise

(8 October 2018) It's a classic case of good news and bad news.  The good news is that US economy is getting stronger with historically low unemployment rates and 4% GDP growth.  But the bad news is that this is creating inflation pressure so that interest rates must rise.  The Federal Reserve raised rates again at its September 26th meeting and the bond market has seen yields spike last week as the benchmark 10-year rate pushed above its previous high to close at 3.22%.  This means that the cost of borrowing is going up and that could eventually undermine the economy as debt servicing costs rise.

The spike in yields proved too much for the stock market as US stocks took a significant hit last week.  It seems that US markets are finally catching up with the rest of the world.  Asian and European markets have been falling since September -- or in some cases like China, since January -- as rising US rates are creating havoc for highly leveraged foreign corporations.  Indian stocks, for example, have tumbled more than 10% since their late August top as the BSE-Sensex is now trading below 35,000. 

I had been quite bearish for September given the unusually close Saturn-Ketu-Uranus-Mars alignment.  But US stocks had managed to escape the pessimism of this pattern largely undamaged.  Things may be changing now that Venus turned retrograde (Rx) on Friday, October 5th.  Unlike nasty planets like Saturn, Ketu and Mars, Venus is typically a benefic planet that is associated with wealth, love, beauty and in the economic context, with value and optimism.  For this reason, Venus alignments more often coincide with market gains.

But once every 18 months or so, Venus turns retrograde and begins its 40-day retrograde cycle where it appears to move backwards in the night sky.  The energy of Venus is therefore transformed.  Its symbolic associations remain the same but they are expressed differently and in often unpredictable and less pleasing ways.  In market terms, Venus retrograde periods have a more negative correlation.  If Venus is mostly bullish when it is moving forward, it tends to have a bearish influence when it is retrograde. 

This is not to say that stocks decline throughout the entirety of its 40-day retrograde cycle.  But some kind of significant decline is probable at some point during that cycle.  And we should note that some Venus retrograde cycles aren't bearish at all.  This was the case in March 2009 when the bear market bottom coincided very closely with the Venus retrograde station, i.e. stocks rose while Venus was retrograde.  This is another reminder that these sorts of single planetary factors do not guarantee a particular outcome and should be seen as probabilistic influences.

But if we take a look at  recent Venus Rx periods, there is nonetheless a strong bearish association. The previous Venus retrograde cycle occurred on 4 March 2017 and lasted until 15 April.  The Dow had just peaked a few days earlier on 1 March as stocks began a pullback that lasted for the duration of the Venus Rx cycle.  Venus ended its Rx cycle and stationed direct on 15 April just a few days before stocks bottomed and the market resumed its rally.   If only Venus Rx cycles always worked this neatly!

The preceding cycle began on 25 July 2015 and lasted until 6 September.  The Dow had been already edging lower during the summer but the Venus retrograde cycle seemed to closely correlate with a major sell-off in August.  While the rebound began towards the end of the Venus Rx cycle, stocks remained much lower than they have been before the cycle began.

And before that, Venus turned retrograde on 21 December 2013 and then stationed direct on 31 January 2014.  Stocks had been rallying at the time that Venus stationed Rx and they continued to climb for another week before peaking and reversing lower.  By the time of the end of the Venus Rx cycle on 31 January, stocks had suffered a net loss through the 40-day cycle.  They would bottom just two days after Venus stationed direct and resumed forward motion. 

And the preceding Venus retrograde cycle began on 15 May 2012 and ran until 27 June 2012.  This is perhaps the least compelling case of the four cases here and yet Venus Rx was not bullish by any means.  Venus turned Rx on 15 May when it broke key horizontal support.  This bearish move produced substantially lower lows as the Venus retrograde cycle lived up to its difficult reputation.  However, stocks recovered somewhat by the time Venus stationed direct on 27 June although they remained well off their previous high.  While stocks finished largely flat for the 40-day cycle, one cannot characterize this Venus Rx cycle as bullish in the slightest and the presence of an additional decline in the middle of the cycle seems appropriately bearish.

The takeaway here is that Venus retrograde cycles have a deservedly bearish reputation.  While this sample size is admittedly small, stocks are more likely to feature a decline during the cycle although they may not necessarily end up lower. 

As the current Venus Rx cycle began last Friday 5 October, it raises the question of where stocks could be when Venus stations direct on 16 November.  There are few things to note in this regard.  First, I would say there is a greater potential for more downside during the next six weeks.  This could mean that US stocks fall further but could rebound by mid-November.  Second, there is a somewhat greater likelihood that stocks will be lower in mid-November than they are now.  How much lower is impossible to say based on this single factor alone but certainly the negative influence of Venus retrograde elevates the risk to a level greater than chance. And, of course, there is still the possibility of an outlier case like 2009 where the Rx station proved significant but in an unexpected way as stocks rebounded while Venus was retrograde in the weeks following the station. 

This week could see additional declines as Venus exactly aligns in a tense square aspect with Mars midweek.  This was likely a factor at the end of last week as it was within a couple of degrees but this week it is exact.  An added burden on sentiment may be the Mercury alignment with Saturn and the Lunar Nodes, Rahu and Ketu, later in the week.

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The Kavanaugh nomination: an excess of Mars

(25 September 2018) Like many things in the Trump presidency, the Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court nomination has deteriorated into a partisan chess game.  Or circus.  Things were going smoothly for the nomination until Kavanaugh's former high school classmate came forward with a sexual assault complaint two weeks ago.  Suddenly, the slam dunk nomination of what was to be the 9th and deciding conservative/GOP vote on the court is up in the air as a result of the bombshell September 13th letter to Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein. 

Christine Blasey Ford is due to testify at the Senate confirmation hearing on Thursday, September 27th to give her side of the story.  Two other women have since come forward with sexual misconduct complaints against Kavanaugh although it isn't yet clear if they will be given a hearing by the Senate Judicial Committee.  Suddenly, what looked like a sure thing is now more like a 50-50 proposition based on the odds from Predictit.org. 

As is often the case, we don't have the exact birth time of Brett Kavanaugh. While the estimated horoscope for noon can be useful, it is often better to find some surrogate chart which can stand in for this particular situation.  I think the moment that President Trump nominated Kavanaugh is a plausible chart to see how this whole thing may unfold.  Trump made the statement of nomination on July 9, 2018 at 9.05 p.m. in Washington, DC.  This was immediately followed by Brett Kavanaugh's short acceptance speech which concluded with a "Thank you" to the president at 9.18 p.m.  It is this second time I have used as the de facto acceptance of the nomination. 

Let's look at the charts.  First off, the Kavanaugh nomination chart is very conflicted.  The Mars-Ketu (South Lunar Node) is rising in the 1st house and reflects how contentious the nomination has become.  The Moon is exalted in Taurus but aligns closely with the Mars-Ketu conjunction and thus intensifies how emotional and volatile the whole process will be.  With Capricorn rising, Saturn is Lagnesh for this chart and it is poorly placed in the 12th house of hidden actions and loss.  One one hand this may reflect the unseen actions behind the scenes that are guiding both sides in this nomination and hence the possibility of intrigue and falsified testimony.  The fact that the 12th house represents "loss" is a big negative for the ultimate outcome for the Kavanaugh nomination.  12th house placements like this usually aren't decisive but they do raise the possibility of failure.  And even if he is eventually sworn-in, this is the kind of chart that raises serious questions about his long-term legitimacy on the court.  

The rest of the chart is more mixed.  Uranus near the 4th house cusp suggests a fast-changing and unstable nomination process.  Well, we have definitely seen that thus far.  But the hidden strength of the natal chart is that Jupiter is stationary direct in the 10th house of achievement and status.  This is an excellent placement as Jupiter would return to direct motion in the day following the nomination on July 10th.  This at least potentially offsets the negative effects of the 12th house Saturn placement. 

When the sexual assault complaint became public on September 13th, transiting Mars was conjunct the Ascendant at 7 Capricorn almost exactly.  Mars, of course, symbolizes conflict and disputes, and, we should note, male sexual activity.  Mercury (20 Leo) is closely opposite Neptune reflecting the state of confusion and lack of clarity about the nomination at that time.  

The transits for Thursday's hearing look very conflicted also. Transiting Mars will be exactly conjunct the natal Ketu at 10 Capricorn, while the transiting Moon will be square that conjunction during Thursday morning.  Moon-Mars-Ketu alignments are typically unpredictable and emotional and often tinged with anger.  It should be a memorable hearing by all accounts.  But more importantly, I would think that this alignment bodes poorly for Kavanaugh and his GOP sponsors.    Kavanaugh is more likely to be seen in a negative light from this hearing.

The larger question is whether there are any telling alignments which might suggest success or failure in the nomination.  This question is made more difficult since the date of the final Senate vote is unknown.  Some pro-Trump senators are suggesting a final confirmation vote could come as early as this Friday.  I would certainly note rule out such an early vote since transiting Jupiter at 27 Libra is very close to the MC (unequal 10th house) at 28 Libra.  With the Sun at 11 Virgo, it will activate a Grand Trine pattern with transiting Mars and the natal Moon at 10 Taurus.  Are these the alignments of a successful nomination?  Yes, it's very possible.  Grand Trines are often good for taking decisive action, even if this involve Mars.  The possibility of a positive outcome is greater since Venus is slowing down ahead of its retrograde station in Libra just 3 or 4 degrees from natal Jupiter.  This Venus-Jupiter pairing is another favourable tailwind for Kavanaugh and the GOP. 

However, I don't have a strong opinion on how this drama ends.  The data is thin so it is hard to make a prediction one way or the other.  The Jupiter-MC influence looks positive for a Kavanaugh confirmation but it could just as easily reflect the media prominence of the hearings rather than the outcome itself.  Similarly, the Venus-Jupiter conjunction could reflect the ratings bonanza of this must-see television for the cable news networks.  And yet Donald Trump's chart suggests some positive developments in the days ahead as a result of the Venus retrograde station on October 5th.  Venus will station at 16 Libra in a near exact 120 degree angle with his Mercury.  This is likely to translate into some positive outcomes for him.  If I were a Democrat, this is what I would worry about.  Of course, there is so much going with the various plot lines in the President Trump Reality Show that it is hard to know what it could pertain to -- Kavanaugh, Rosenstein, Mueller, Stormy Daniels, NAFTA negotiations, midterm candidates, etc.  But the Venus influence is broadly positive for him during late September and early October so that could easily reflect a Kavanaugh confirmation. 

The bottom line is the planets are equivocal with low levels of confidence in any outcome, but especially a negative confirmation outcome.  Trump's planets look strong enough for confirmation although as we know, that could pertain to any number of behind-the-scenes matters. 


Weekly Market Forecast

Meanwhile, the US markets remain buoyant as all the trade war talk has yet to exact any significant price on the US economy.  The Dow has finally joined the other indexes and reached new all-time highs.  Indian stocks have pulled back significantly as the emerging markets contagion has finally hit home on Dalat St. with its attendant inflationary pressures and declining rupee.  I thought we might have seen more downside in the US and Europe by this time given the difficult Mars-Saturn-Ketu-Uranus alignment.  Monday's Full Moon did correlate with some downside in Asia but as usual, the US has proven more resilient as international capital has decided the US is a safe haven for now.

The Federal Reserve is due to release its latest policy statement on the economy tomorrow.  A rate hike is virtually certain but it is the forward guidance that will be parsed carefully.  While the Sun-Mercury have passed their square alignment with bearish Saturn by that time, it is more difficult to see the market reacting favourably to the Fed given the ongoing Sun-Mars-Ketu alignment.  Sun-Mars alignments are slightly bearish depending on other factors, but the involvement of the Lunar Nodes with Ketu here increases the uncertainty.  This uncertainty could last through the rest of this week and even into early next week. 

For a more thorough analysis of the possible market scenarios, please check out my weekly subscriber newsletter.  It features a discussion of the relevant astrological and technical trends on both short and medium term time frames for US and Indian stocks, as well as currencies, oil and gold.  The newsletter is published every Saturday. 

Trump escalates trade war with China

(17 September 2018) What was previously seen a mere bullying negotiating tactic became a reality today in the Trump's trade war against China.  This afternoon President Donald Trump followed through on his threat to impose tariffs on a wide range Chinese goods entering the US.  The 10% tariff on $200 Billion of consumer goods will start September 24th and is due to be increased to 25% by the end of the year if no solution is found to the ongoing trade dispute. 

Stocks sold off across the board in reaction to this new Trumpian economic reality.  The Dow and S&P 500 fell by 0.5% (but 1%  after the announcement following the market close) while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 fell by more than 1% on the day and another 1% after the close.  As I suggested in last week's newsletter, Apple (and tech) was particularly vulnerable to a possible escalation in a trade war since China could single it out and punish it more specifically.  For his part, Trump did not include China-made Apple products on his list of taxed electronics but the risk remains.

The relationship chart between Trump and Chinese President Xi is very afflicted this week.  Taking the halfway point between their birth dates, the resulting relationship chart (14 December 1949) has a very heavy presence of malefic planets.  The Mars-Ketu conjunction suggests surprising disputes and 'conflict beyond boundaries' is closely aligned with the Venus-Jupiter conjunction in Capricorn.  This strident Mars influence will likely intensify in the coming days as it approaches Jupiter more closely.

Saturn (8 Sagittarius) is approaching is conjunction with Mercury, the planet of trade and commerce.  Saturn is a negative influence as it often acts to constrain the qualities of the planets it comes into contact with.  Therefore, Saturn-Mercury would be a very apt combination for signifying the restriction of trade between the US and China.  And yet we should note that the Saturn-Mercury conjunction will be exact and hence more potentially powerful in November so that may suggest no quick resolution to the dispute.  And it leaves open the possibility that the trade war may well escalate further.  Trump has threatened to add another $267 Billion of Chinese goods if things don't go his way.  All Apple products would be included in that final tranche of taxable imports if it came to pass.

A third element of conflict is clear from the Sun-Mercury conjunction in late Leo and early Virgo coming up to hit the Mars-Saturn conjunction in the relationship chart.  This is a terrible short term alignment as it activates a very intense Mars-Saturn conjunction in the relationship chart between these two world leaders.  Given the afflictions in the rest of the chart, the Sun-Mercury pairing is highlighting a time of rivalry and frustration between both men. China may retaliate later this week, possibly when the Moon is aligned with Mars and Ketu.  Interestingly, that very volatile triple conjunction occurs over top of the Ascendant in the China national horoscope (1 Oct 1949).  It hints at a very raw, intense and even emotional situation. 

While we should expect continued tension between the US and China on the trade front in the coming weeks, I would suggest that some kind of significant rapprochement is likely to take place in March or April 2019.  At that time, Jupiter still station retrograde at 0 Sagittarius -- just one degree past the natal Sun in the Trump-Xi horoscope.  It is a very positive and constructive transit that could finally lead to a breakthrough. 


Weekly Market Forecast

Markets around the world did sell off on this tariff news today.  India has finally joined the sell-off that has been ongoing in emerging markets since January and now perhaps the US will also.  The planets were pretty negative today given the Moon-Saturn conjunction and the Mars-Uranus square and Sun-Moon square (Ashthami Day).  The planets this week do not offer any compelling case for a quick rebound, although they may not preclude one or two positive trading days.  Tomorrow (Tuesday) may bring better conditions for the Moon but the afternoon looks more unfavourable once again.  Mars will still be in a 90 degree angle with Uranus so there is the potential for sudden and unexpected (and negative) developments.  It's hard to be bullish here.

The Moon may figure prominently on Wednesday and Thursday as it conjoins Mars and Ketu (i.e. South Lunar Node) on both days.  This is a more bearish alignment more along the lines of what we saw today. While I would be reluctant to predict two more big down days, some additional selling looks more likely than not.  Friday's Moon-Jupiter square hints at more optimism.

For a slightly different take, readers may be interested to see how the week may play out from a numerical index for planetary placements.  It's still very speculative and experimental at this point, but hopefully it can lead to a better understanding of how planetary cycles may work in the financial markets.

Of course, my weekly subscriber newsletter still offers more detailed coverage of short and medium term trends in US and Indian stocks, as well as currencies, oil and gold.  The newsletter is published every Saturday. 

Can Apple deliver the goods yet again?

(10 September 2018) Apple's annual event this Wednesday comes at a crucial time for the company. Its market dominance is greater than ever as it recently became the first company in the world to be worth more than $1 Trillion.  Not surprisingly, its share price has been making new all-time highs since it last reported its earnings at the end of July.  And yet there could be a lot riding on what CEO Tim Cook unveils at this event.  Expectations are high for something more than just a new model of iPhone. 

In recent days, Apple's share prices has started to sag a bit as fears the trade war with China could start to bite. Neither Trump nor President Xi show any sign of backing down or returning to the negotiating table to resolve this dispute.  The problem for Apple is if the trade war gets worse, Apple products may get caught in the crossfire.  Already there is talk of a "tech wreck" as more computing parts have become subject to tariffs.  If push comes to shove, then China could deliver its "nuclear option" which in this case would be to slap a hefty tariff on all Apple products coming into China.  That would be very bad news for Apple and would likely hit the share price hard.

I don't know what will happen at the Apple Event this week but it does look like some difficult days lie ahead.  The Apple IPO horoscope reveals a tense alignment of malefic planets hitting the Ascendant (8 Capricorn)-- the most sensitive point in the chart.  Saturn stationed direct last week at 8 Sagittarius on the equal 12th house cusp and formed a 30 degree angle with the Ascendant. 

This tends to be negative although it can sometimes be offset by positive planets elsewhere in the chart.  However, negative planets are much stronger here as Ketu (the South Lunar Node) is approaching its conjunction with the Ascendant at 10 Capricorn.  Ketu's effects are often disruptive and unexpected.   And last, but not least, Mars is due to conjoin the Ascendant next week.  It stationed very close to the Ascendant in late August, right around the time when Apple's share price started to decline.

On Wednesday, there is the possibility for some initial excitement around the Apple event since the Moon conjoins Venus at the top of the chart.  This is usually a good transit for public profile and gaining accolades and rewards.  The opposition with Uranus on the 4th cusp should also be seen as a plus in this respect.  Perhaps Tim Cook will announce something that is well-received. 

And yet the alignment with Saturn, Mars and Ketu is very close and therefore more unstable.  Venus is a fast moving planet which may only bestow rewards on Apple for a couple of days, if that.  The problem is that Mars' slower velocity means it will take longer to manifest its negative energy.  It moves exactly atop the Ascendant next week (Sep 19-20th) so that would be the hypothetical time of maximum pressure for Apple.  But the whole month of September has an above normal level of risk.  I wonder if the troubles that lie ahead have more to do with China and Trump rather than what is revealed at the Apple Event on Wednesday. 

And as Apple goes, so goes the whole US market.  The outlook this week is mixed.  We saw modest gains on Monday around the Sun-Jupiter-Pluto alignment.  We could see a bit more upside tomorrow as the Sun aligns more closely with Jupiter and even more into Wednesday as the Moon-Venus influence is nominally bullish also.   But Mars appears to be getting ready to inflict some damage.  Cracks in the optimism may reappear later in the week.

For more details on the short and medium term outlook for the markets, check out my weekly investor newsletter.  The newsletter is published every weekend and covers US and Indian stock markets, as well as gold, oil, and major currencies.

Summer's gone: what's next for stocks?

(3 September 2018) As the summer winds down, the US stock market appears as unstoppable as ever.  With the exception of the Dow, most of the main indexes hit fresh all-time highs last week.  Investors have generally shrugged off trade worries and instead focused on growing corporate earnings and the Fed's promise to raise interest rates gradually.  With the notable exception of India, markets outside the US have generally fared less well as more trade dependent economies such as China and Europe have suffered significant losses this year.

So what happens next?  From a technical point of view, there is good reason to think that stocks will likely undergo some kind of pullback or correction in the coming weeks.  Pullbacks are normal occurrences in a bull market, even one that is entering its 10th year as this one is.  The astrological perspective also strongly suggests that a pullback will occur in September and could begin as early as this week.

The current planetary situation is complex.  We can see powerful multi-planet alignments centered around both Jupiter and Saturn.  Bullish Jupiter has been in a very slow-moving and long-lasting alignment with Neptune throughout summer.  Jupiter's direct station in early July formed a close angle with Neptune which remained within range for two months.  This is one of the reasons for the extended summer rally.  Now Jupiter is moving away from its 120-degree angle with Neptune so there will likely to be a reduction of optimism in the weeks ahead. Jupiter is also due to align with Pluto next week (exact September 12) so that could coincide with some upside.

However, bearish Saturn is becoming more prominent in September as it stations direct on September 6 and aligns with Uranus for much of the month.  The added twist here is that the ongoing Saturn-Uranus alignment will align with Mars and Ketu, the South Lunar Node, later in September.  This four-planet alignment looks quite tense and seems incompatible with a stock market rally.  More likely, it will mark some kind of pullback.  While the alignment is exact in the second half of September, it could begin to be felt somewhat before and after the dates of maximum alignment.

Using the horoscope of the NASDAQ, we can see how this very nasty Saturn-centered alignment could make a big impact on stocks, especially tech stocks.  Saturn is stationing at 8 Sagittarius which is exactly trine the Ascendant at 8 Aries.  Saturn also conjoins Venus (9 Sagittarius) for the month of September.  Uranus (8 Aries) will also conjoin the Ascendant and hints at the possibility of sudden, large moves in the markets. 

Saturn-Uranus don't have be bearish and indeed they have been within range for several weeks already during which time the market went up.  But Jupiter was stronger than it is now.  The other area of concern is that Saturn-Uranus will be joined by Mars and Rahu.  I would think some kind of decline is likely, possibly larger than many bullish investors expect. 


This Week

Aside from the slowly evolving Saturn situation, Mars is due to aspect Mercury via its most malefic 210 degree/8th house aspect.  This is a fairly reliable indicator of some major downside (>1%) on at least one day this week.  It is close from Tuesday to Thursday so some selling looks likely at some point across those three days.  Tuesday looks somewhat worse than Wednesday, while Thursday may be the worst of the lot given the Moon-Mars opposition that also occurs that day.  On Friday, Mercury aligns with Saturn and Uranus in a Grand Trine pattern and could produce a significant move. 

The last time we saw a fast-moving planet form a Grand Trine was on August 24 when the Sun aligned with Saturn and Uranus.  While not quite exact in its alignment, the markets rose sharply that day.  We could well see a repeat this Friday.  At the same time, the Sun-Neptune opposition on Friday looks less positive and suggests confusion and lack of confidence.  So there is a lot going on there that could argue for either a gain or decline.  Or even both in quick sequence.

For more details on the short and medium outlook for the markets, check out my weekly investor newsletter.  I cover US and Indian stock markets, as well as gold, oil, and major currencies.

The astrology behind the McCain-Trump feud

(27 August 2018) The passing of Republican Senator John McCain on Saturday has highlighted the deep divisions in US politics.   McCain was one of the longest-serving and most respected Senators who was known for his sense of honor and human decency and his ability to rise above partisanship when necessary.  He also staunchly opposed President Donald Trump and the changes he has wrought in the Republican Party. Trump's ascension to the White House has transformed the GOP from a "big tent" right of center party into a vengeful, ethno-nationalist populist party. 

There was no love lost between McCain and Trump.  Trump famously insulted McCain during the 2016 campaign when he cast aspersions on McCain's long captivity and torture in North Vietnam.  But McCain got the better of Trump when he delivered the famous 'thumbs down' deciding vote against the GOP's repeal of Obamacare in July 2017.  Trump has maintained his disdain even with the death of McCain as he never even mentioned his name in the official White House announcement of his passing, let alone offer any praise for his life of public service.  Before he died, McCain also expressly stated that Trump was not allowed to attend his funeral which will be held on Saturday.  He called instead for eulogies to be given by former presidents and political rivals, George W Bush and Barack Obama.  Even in death, the bitterness remains.

It is interesting to see how this level of rancor and enmity manifests itself in the horoscopes.  While it can be useful to do a standard overlay comparison of the charts (e.g.  A's Mars is opposite B's Sun, etc.), I am currently in the thrall of Davison Relationship charts.  These are derived charts that take the temporal midpoint of the births of two people in order to cast a third chart.  This halfway mark between the dates of birth of two people is often very telling in terms of describing the nature of their relationship.  It can also give an accurate timing of events that impact the relationship through transits and progressions. 

Trump was born on 14 June 1946 while McCain was born 10 years earlier on 29 August 1936.  Their derived relationship chart therefore takes the halfway point in between -- 22 July 1941 at 7.09 p.m.  The resulting chart is very clearly reflects their mutual disdain.   Saturn is sitting on the 7th cusp directly opposite the Ascendant.  Cold, austere, no emotional connection at all.  Saturn is aspected by Neptune-Rahu very closely and thus makes the Saturn influence even more harsh, unbending, and unusually intense. 

The other thing to notice is that Venus is also part of that large Saturn alignment as it sits up in the 10th house in a close square with Saturn.  While it would be tempting to think that this strong, angular Venus might somehow offset the exaggerated and harsh Saturn influence, it actually makes it worse.  A Venus-Saturn square nullifies all the pleasant, social Venus side of a relationship.  The fact that it is highlighted on the angles with the Ascendant in focus adds an additional layer of cold detachment.  Since the Venus-Saturn-Rahu-Neptune alignment is so closely aligned with the Ascendant, it may well reflect the public nature of their mutual dislike.  The angularity of the planetary alignments pushes those qualities into the public sphere.  As a result, Trump and McCain are famous for hating each other. 

The Moon-Mercury conjunction in Gemini in the 8th house is almost exactly squared by Mars.  This is clearly a relationship characterized by conflict, frustration and anger.  A close Mars aspect to either the Moon or Mercury would have been sufficient to generate some conflict but this is a double whammy since both the Moon and Mercury are subject to the energy of Mars.  It is difficult to imagine a more hostile alignment of planets between two people.

At the time of McCain's deciding vote against the GOP Obamacare repeal, Rahu was sitting near the 10th house cusp conjunct Venus and activating that Saturn alignment.  Since Rahu is the planet of disruption and surprises, this placement was an apt reflection of the sudden nature of McCain's vote.  It wasn't clear how he would vote until prhaps an hour before the roll was taken.  The Sun-Mars conjunction at 10-11 Cancer was exactly conjunct natal Pluto, the planet of power and coercion.  Clearly, this was McCain's power play against Trump as he stuck to his principles.  The vote was the political defining event in their troubled relationship.

The upcoming funeral on Saturday, 1 September also should highlight their rancorous relationship.  The near-stationary and powerful Mars is in close opposition to the Sun suggesting that the memorial service will be another instance where their mutual dislike will be on display.  Venus will be conjunct the cusp of the 12th house of loss and isolation.  This symbolizes the absence of any Venusian sense of sociality or mutual empathy.  Mercury's placement near the top of the chart could represent how their dysfunctional relationship will be communicated and shared with a wider audience through the media coverage of the event.


Weekly Market Forecast 

Stocks have continued to march higher as the summer nears its end.  Most of the major US indexes have hit all-time highs, with the notable exception of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.  I thought we might have seen some weakness come into the market last week as we approached the Full Moon and the Mars direct station. That really hasn't happened yet, however, and Monday's rally on the possible NAFTA breakthrough did not hint at any imminent declines. 

While stocks could rise a bit further from here, I still think the clock is ticking on this rally.  The time around the Saturn-Uranus-Rahu alignment in September is likely to shift the market logic.  Saturn is due to station direct on 6 September so that first week of September is definitely one to watch.  But this week there is more of a mix of alignments.  Today's gain was fairly predictable on the bullish Moon-Mercury-Jupiter alignment.  Tuesday looks much less positive, however, so we could see some profit-taking and some downside.  Wednesday also looks suspect as the Moon will still be close to Full and also in the 8th house from the Sun.  I wouldn't expect anything too dramatic this week but maybe the tides will begin to turn on the market.

For more details on the short and medium outlook for the markets, check out my weekly investor newsletter.  I cover US and Indian stock markets, as well as gold, oil, and major currencies.

US midterm elections: can the Democrats win?

(21 August 2018) As the summer winds down, attention is shifting towards the US midterm elections in November.  These elections will be particularly important this year since they will largely be a referendum on the turbulent Trump presidency.  Currently, the Republicans control both houses of Congress as that has helped Trump to implement his agenda.  But if the Democrats win the House and possibly the Senate, then Trump would be hamstrung and effectively neutralized.  It would also likely mean that impeachment proceedings would begin in early 2019. 

At the moment, most analysts believe the Democrats are likely to win the House of Representatives.  The political betting site Predictit.org puts the odds at 67% while Fivethirtyeight.com gives it a 75% probability.  A Democrat win of the Senate is more unlikely with around just a 25% probability. 

My readings of the horoscopes of the key players suggest that the Democrats are likely to do well in the elections on November 6th.  For starters, President Trump's chart looks difficult at that time.  Transiting Mars (0 Aquarius) will be squaring his MC/10th house cusp indicating stressful situations relating to career and status.  Mars will also oppose its natal position in the 1st house and align with Saturn and Venus in his 12th house.  None of these hits suggest winning bigly.  Rahu (North Lunar Node) will be conjunct his 12th house cusp representing loss.  This is often a bad transit which correlates with disruptive events that break with the status quo and cause disappointment. 

Jupiter will be transiting his 4th house cusp in November so that could be a saving grace.  Maybe the GOP holds on to the Senate with this transit.  And yet Jupiter hits are no guarantee of positive results, especially when the rest of this chart is this afflicted.  Jupiter is often weaker at the bottom of the chart and could represent a turning inward (4th house = mind) as a consequence of negative events in the world.

The other thing to remember about Donald Trump's chart is that he enters his Jupiter-Saturn dasha period on November 19 according to the Krishnamurthi ayanamsha.  For the duration of his presidency, he has been running the much stronger Jupiter-Jupiter dasha.  As of November, he should have a worsening of fortunes over the next 2+ years.  Saturn is poorly placed in his 12th house, albeit next to Venus.  This dasha period could bring about separation or divorce from his wife Melania since Saturn is conjunct Venus, the planet of marriage.  The 2018-2020 period may also be a time when secret 12th house matters involving women and sex (Venus) bring him embarrassment and scandal. 

Compare Trump's chart with Barack Obama, the former Democrat president.  If Obama's horoscope is well-aspected, then it seems more likely that the Democrats will do well in the midterms.  That does seem to be the case as Jupiter (5 Scorpio) is exactly conjunct his 10th house cusp/MC which symbolizes career and status.  When benefics such as Jupiter align with this point, the person usually has good news regarding career.  As an added boost, Jupiter will aspect Obama's Mercury in November. 

Since Trump's chart looks bad on November 6th and Obama's chart looks good, it seems more likely that the Democrats will regain control of at least the House.  Therefore, the astrology would seem to support the prevailing view that the Democrats will win.  But can they also win the Senate which most analysts are saying is a long shot? 

I don't have any strong opinions on that question, although a look at the horoscope of the Democrat Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer suggests it's possible.  Schumer was born with the Sun at 7 Scorpio so Jupiter will be closely conjunct at the time of the election.  This is a very positive placement.  Also, Venus will be in aspect with his natal Jupiter in early November.  Unfortunately, Schumer's birth time is unknown so we can only use his approximated chart cast for noon. 

GOP Senate Leader Mitch McConnell's chart looks unimpressive for November.  Again, he have no birth time for him so we have to use the noon chart.  Unlike Schumer's chart, Jupiter is not aspecting any planet in McConnell's chart.  More negatively, Saturn (11 Sagittarius) will be casting its full strength 3rd house aspect to the Sun.  Moreover, it will align closely with Venus (12 Capricorn), Pluto (12 Cancer) and possibly the Aries Moon also, depending on his exact birth time.  These hits strongly suggest that McConnell will not have much to celebrate in November. 

Of course, it may not mean that the GOP loses the Senate. McConnell's chart would likely be afflicted in November anyway if the Democrats simply won the House since it would damage his party's fortunes overall. But the level of affliction hints at possibility of bigger problems than simply losing the House.  McConnell and the other GOP bigwigs likely already expect to lose the House.  This suggests that the midterm losses the GOP suffers will be greater than expected, including maybe losing the Senate. 

I will revisit this question in the coming weeks as the election draws closer.


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks have generally been bullish thus far in August.  In fact, the S&P 500 made a new record high today at 2873 before pulling back at the close. Indian stocks have also hit records as the BSE Sensex is now trading above 38,000.  In my previous forecast two weeks ago, I thought that the rally in stocks might start to weaken last week in the wake of the New Moon.  That hasn't really happened although we did see some down days on Monday and Wednesday last week. 

So where do stocks go now?  While the bulls are very much in control, some kind of pullback also looks likely in the coming days.  The Full Moon on Sunday, August 26th is a bearish influence, as is the Mars direct station on Monday the 27th.  Therefore, the rest of the week may see increased caution.  Wednesday's Moon-Pluto conjunction is a possible signal in that regard, although Venus will be bullishly aligned with Jupiter and Neptune as well.  This could offset some of the brewing negativity.  Mars aspects the Sun again tomorrow, however, so that is an additional burden on sentiment.  I would note that Mars has been in aspect with the Sun on Monday and Tuesday already with few obviously negative effects.  Thursday's Moon-Mars conjunction looks more volatile and could turn an initially positive week into a losing one. 


For more details on the short and medium outlook for the markets, check out my weekly investor newsletter.  I cover US and Indian stock markets, as well as gold, oil, and major currencies.

Who is winning the US-China war?

(6 August 2018) The ongoing trade war between the US and China shows no signs of abating.  Last week, President Trump announced his intention to slap 25% tariffs on another $200 Billion worth of Chinese goods. China's response was muted as they only targeted $60 Billion worth of US products for tariffs.  While there is much gnashing of teeth about the possible global economic fallout of a full-scale trade war and a return to 1930s-style protectionism, so far financial markets are taking a wait-and-see approach.  At least they are in the US, where most stock indexes are again near their all-time highs from January.  The Dow Jones is comprised of more trade dependent companies so it has been lagging the NASDAQ and S&P 500.

But Chinese stocks have fared much worse and have actually entered a bear market as the Shanghai Index (SSEC) has fallen more than 20% from its January highs.  While global markets all sold off sharply in January, it should be noted that Trump announced the first tariffs on Chinese goods on January 23 as part of his "America First" economic policy.  Much of the global decline can be attributed to this action. 

As the SSEC price chart shows, this coincided closely with the decline.  One reason why tariffs have hit China harder than the US is because its economy is more trade-dependent.  Financial markets believe the US is in a better position to ride out any ongoing trade tensions, especially if its domestic growth remains stronger than the rest of the world.

The Davison relationship horoscope for the US and China aptly reflects this growing trade dispute.  The US-China relationship chart cast for the temporal midpoint of 17 February 1863, was under considerable stress in January when Ketu (South Lunar Node) was conjunct the Moon-Mercury conjunction (22 Cancer), very close to the 7th house cusp.  Ketu disrupts and interrupts the status quo and is usually seen as a malefic influence.  Mercury symbolizes commerce and the Moon represents collective mood and mindset.  Therefore, we can see that Ketu's transit of this very powerful and close conjunction of the Moon and Mercury would have significant effects.  As an additional layer of sudden change, transiting Ketu also closely aspected the natal Ketu-Uranus conjunction in the chart.

Moreover, Pluto (power, coercion, manipulation) is in a near-exact 120 degree angle with Mars, the planet of conflict, aggression and assertion.  While the 120 degree angle is seen as less damaging than a 90 or 180 degree angle, it is still a potent combination that indicates an extended time period of tension and conflict between the US and China.  In recent weeks, Saturn has been squaring its natal position (12 Sagittarius) and thus creating a climate of frustration, distrust and hardship. 


So what does the future hold?  The month of August could see some improvement in relations between the two countries as Mercury will align with Jupiter and Neptune this week.  This will align with the natal Venus (22 Aquarius) and offer the possibility of a much-sought after trade deal.  But I think there is also good reason to think that the tensions will worsen in September.  Mars is due to station direct on 27 August at 4 Capricorn and then it will approach the Moon-Mercury conjunction in September and October.  This looks unhelpful in terms of the chances for an enduring trade deal.  The Mars influence could be felt most intensely in mid to late October when the conjunction is closest. This could signify any deal falling apart or some other area of dispute arising, such as involving North Korea.

Another aspect of this situation is the afflicted chart of Chinese President Xi Jinping (15 June 1953).  Xi has been coming under unprecedented domestic criticism over the past week or two as middle and upper class investors has expressed disappointment with China's response to the trade war.  The upcoming Saturn station in September will oppose his natal Mars very closely -- within one degree -- and could indicate a very turbulent and difficult political situation for him.  It is possible that Xi himself could be forced out of power although it could also be a less serious event such as China suffering additional economic distress in financial markets. 

While it is usually a better astrological practice to expect more moderate outcomes, I would note that China's horoscope is very afflicted at this time.  The South Node Ketu and Mars are conjunct the Capricorn Ascendant while Saturn stations direct at 8 Sagittarius which is exactly on the equal 12th house cusp.  Saturn is due to square China's Sun and Mercury over the next year so that will likely reflect some ongoing disappointment and frustration with government and the economy.  I suspect that I will be returning to this topic again fairly soon as the situation develops.


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks have moved higher since the Full Moon and lunar eclipse on 27 July.  While there was indeed the expected pullback in the days following the Full Moon, the decline was surprisingly modest.  I thought we might have seen more selling given the tense Mars and Saturn alignments around the time of the lunar eclipse.   Although disappointing, the fact that we did see at least a small pullback nonetheless confirmed the notion of relatively bearish effects around the Full Moon period. 

Now the NASDAQ is at all-time highs after Apple posted strong earnings and became the first $1 Trillion corporation.  The Dow is still lagging other indexes as it is still holding on to the 25,500 level. Stocks have rallied in recent days as we approach a more bullish New Moon.  As it happens, this New Moon will also be a solar eclipse which occurs on Saturday, 11 August.  This is a positive factor for stocks this week.  Also we can see that the Sun-Mercury conjunction after hours on Wednesday the 8th will align fairly closely with Jupiter and Neptune.  This is another generally positive influence for the week.  So the stars this week offer support to the expectation that we could see new all-time highs in US and Indian stocks.  To be sure, it is unlikely to be a straight line upwards, but there are no strongly negative short term patterns in play this week.  Next week looks more mixed by comparison so markets may finally be approaching a time of reckoning.

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