The Trump tax bill: will it save the GOP in November?

(27 December 2017) With the first year of his presidency almost done, President Donald Trump finally scored a much-needed legislative win with the passage of his tax overhaul bill.   As Trump signed the bill into law last Friday, the GOP have turned their sights to next November's midterm elections.  Trump is betting on the tax cut to win back voters who have thus far been alienated from his tumultuous and divisive presidency.  

There is a lot riding on next year's midterms.  With Trump's approval ratings still below 40%, the Democrats are favored to win the House of Representatives and to have a decent chance of winning back the Senate.  If the GOP loses control of both Houses of Congress, the Trump agenda would effectively be neutralized until 2020.   Also, a Democrat-controlled Congress would very likely move toward impeachment of President Trump. 

So will Trump's tax cut achieve its desired ends and help the GOP hold onto Congress next year?  One perspective on this question is to examine the horoscope for the time that Trump signed it into law.  Using this "birth chart" for the tax bill, we can then see how the planets are aligned with this chart in November.  A favorable alignment of planets in November would suggest that the tax bill would boost GOP fortunes while negative alignments may project the more negative aspects of the bill and correspond with an electoral defeat.


Prelude: The Reagan Tax Cuts

Before we look at the charts, let's take a look at the most appropriate historical precedent for Trump's tax bill, namely, the famous Reagan tax bill from 1981.  This bill cut taxes and was widely credited for boosting economic activity in the 1980s.   However, it is not a clear-cut historical judgment since it is also increased the deficit and likely widened economic inequality.   President Reagan signed the bill on August 13, 1981.  Interestingly, the Republicans did poorly in the subsequent midterm elections in November 1982.   The economy was still struggling through a recession so the tax cut bill was not well received by voters.

As we can see in the chart, this largely negative evaluation is evident in the transits on Election Day 1982.   On the plus side, transiting Jupiter (25 Libra) is just past its trine aspect with Mars (24 Gemini) which ordinarily is associated with positive action.   The Republicans did at least keep their Senate majority that year even if that was never really in question. 

But the most outstanding configuration is the Saturn-Pluto conjunction at 3 Libra which is exactly square to the Moon at 3 Capricorn.  This is an extremely difficult pattern which would more likely bring out the negative side of the natal horoscope of the 1981 tax bill.  This is especially true since the Moon represents the people or population as a whole.   The American people were not happy with the Reagan administration at this time as the GOP lost 25 House seats. 

But by the next presidential election in 1984, the economy had improved.   As a result, the Republicans boosted their standing in the House although the Democrats retained control and Reagan was re-elected in a landslide against Walter Mondale.    The GOP kept control of the Senate.  

And true to the logic of astrology, the horoscope of the 1981 tax cut was in much better shape in the fall of 1984.  Saturn (25 Libra) is in a more benign position here in the 2nd house and was not making any full strength aspects to any planet.  It is making a partial strength trine aspect with Mars but the trine is generally more positive than the square.  Jupiter is not prominent here although it is helping the 4th house of sentiment and satisfaction. 

Most noteworthy is that Rahu (North Lunar Node) creates a symmetrical grand trine with Venus (0 Virgo) and the Moon (3 Capricorn).  Also Rahu can be an unpredictable planet, it can be positive when it is associated with benefics, as is the case here with the Moon and Venus.   The Sun (21 Libra) forms a nice trine aspect to the 10th house cusp (22 Gemini) while Venus conjoins Neptune (28 Scorpio) and trines the Sun (27 Cancer). 

It's a much better chart for the 1984 election and should be seen as one reason at least why Reagan's economic agenda carried the day. 


The Trump tax bill and the 2018 midterms

The midterms will be held on November 6, 2018.  The resulting transit overlay chart suggests difficulty for Trump and the GOP.  To be sure, it is not all bad.  The conjunction of the Sun (20 Libra) to Jupiter (21 Libra) is quite positive.  And the Mercury-Jupiter conjunction in Scorpio in the 10th house is good for public profile.  But Jupiter isn't doing all that much actually especially when we consider the negatives.  The nodes, Rahu and Ketu are close to their respective 6th and 12th houses cusps.  This can be disruptive of intended goals and may not correspond with desired circumstances for the GOP.  Also we should note the near exact degreewise alignment of the nodes at 5 degrees with the Sun-Saturn conjunction at 6 degrees of Sagittarius in the natal chart.  While this is not a conventional Vedic aspect, it looks more negative than positive.  Uranus at 5 Aries is also not helpful.

And the other big problem here is that transiting Saturn (11 Sagittarius) will be almost exactly conjunct the equal 11th house cusp.  Certainly, Saturn rules the chart as a whole (since Aquarius is rising) so it's not all bad in its transits.  But the contact between Saturn and the 11th house of gains seems problematic.   Some astrologers may offer a more positive interpretation of this transit but I would not, especially given the weight of the other alignments in the chart. 

The bottom line to me is that the Trump tax bill is not likely to help the GOP much in the midterm elections.   Most current polls have them losing control of at least one chamber.   This tax bill chart suggests that those polls are more likely to be proven correct.   Whether they lose both the House and Senate is impossible to say from this chart alone.  


Weekly Market Forecast

Stock markets have held steady into this week after rallying in the lead-in to the passage of the Trump tax overhaul.   The Dow is still trading above 24,500 while India's Sensex is trading just below 34,000.  As expected, we did get some minor selling late last week.  Also Bitcoin rebounded more or less as predicted in last week's market forecast after the culmination of the last Mars transit to the Bitcoin horoscope on Dec 23rd.

Mercury has returned to direct motion now and will align with Jupiter and Rahu for the rest of this week.  One would think that should boost sentiment during this final week of 2017.   I would therefore be surprised if we got any big declines here and more upside is still possible.  As we head into January, we may see a rise in caution on Jan 1 and 2 given the Mars-Rahu square.  The proximity of Jupiter to Mars could offset some of the destabilizing effects of this pairing but risk is nonetheless elevated.  I am still keenly focused on the multi-planet alignment on January 8-9 for clues for future market direction.

For more details and analysis on market trends for this week, this month and this year, please check out my weekly MVA Investor Newsletter.  The newsletter is published every Saturday and includes extended discussion of US and Indian stock markets, as well as gold, oil and major currencies.

Mars sideswipes Bitcoin as price falls 20%

(20 December 2017) The Bitcoin mania continues after the cryptocurrency traded near $20,000 over the weekend.  Bitcoin's profile was further heightened on Sunday as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) began to offer BTC Futures following the lead of the CBOE which initiated futures trading last week.  While there is some variation in prices depending on the exchange, BTC hit about 19,700 on Sunday, 17 December before pulling back.  The past few days has seen Bitcoin trade below $16,000 although currently trading near $17,000. 

This 15-20% pullback closely coincides with a prediction I made about the price of Bitcoin last week.  I had suggested that a series of transits involving the planet Mars to key planets in the BTC first trade chart could bring about some declines.  I had had some doubts about the usefulness of the first trade chart (12 January 2009), but the current pullback seems to line up well with the planetary influences. 

I had thought that the Mars-Moon square (i.e. when Mars was 90 degrees from the natal Moon) on 19th December could coincide with some nervousness in the bitcoin market.  That is just two days after the 17 December top as prices have fallen on the 18th, 19th and the 20th.  Mars was just one degree from its exact square aspect during the start of this decline.  A fairly close correlation.

Mars is also now squaring Mercury in the chart and that also explains why prices remain under pressure today (Wednesday).  I would think Mars will continue to be a negative factor until 23rd December when it squares the Lunar Node (Rahu).  Due to the clustering of planets in Capricorn, however, I'm less certain that the transit effects will closely coincide with exact aspects.  When planets are grouped together as in this chart (Moon, Mercury, Lunar Node, Jupiter, Neptune), the effects of stressful transits can sometimes be diffused.  Nonetheless, this suggests that BTC is less likely to rebound strongly to new highs over the next few days.

I would think prices are more likely to rise after Christmas.  However, as I noted in my previous Bitcoin post, the Uranus direct station on 2nd January could be significant.  Uranus represents technology in general and its station at 0 degrees of sidereal Aries forms a close alignment to the Ascendant in the first trade chart.  Of course, I'm not at all sure that this chart (and the Ascendant) is reliable but it is definitely something to watch out for.  The Uranus station hints at weakness, or at least a reduction in volatility in both directions.  Without the strong Uranian influence in recent weeks, Bitcoin may be more likely to move in a narrower trading range on any given day.  More than a bullish or bearish indication perhaps, the 2nd January Uranus station may signal a lessening of the wild swings in price for the next few weeks. 

As before, I think more upside is very possible in the first months of 2018.  I would think higher highs are more likely than not, although forecasting prices is purely speculative. How high Bitcoin could go is therefore impossible for me to say.  But I do think that April-May looks more troublesome as Saturn turns retrograde and the Lunar Nodes form a semi-return with the natal chart.  But that also depends on how workable this first trade chart is.  So far, it seems to reflect changing sentiment at least partially, October notwithstanding.  But I would need to see more evidence before feeling comfortable with it.


Weekly Market Forecast

The stock market remains as buoyant as ever as investors welcome the news of the passage of the Trump tax bill.  The business-friendly tax overhaul has the Dow again trading at record highs while India's Sensex matched its recent all-time high a bit below 34,000.  This ongoing rally is not surprising as the late December planetary alignments look fairly positive.  As I noted in last week's market forecast, we got some mild selling in the second half of the week following the Fed meeting but stocks have rebounded strongly this week as Venus enters Sagittarius today and Mercury stations direct in alignment with bullish Jupiter. 

The rest of this week looks less positive as the Moon is squared by Mars and the Sun conjoins Saturn.  But with Jupiter aligning with the Lunar Nodes and Pluto next week, one would expect the Santa Claus rally to prevail once again this year.

For more details and analysis on market trends for this week, this month and this year, please check out my weekly MVA Investor Newsletter.  The newsletter is published every Saturday and includes extended discussion of US and Indian stock markets, as well as gold, oil and major currencies.

Bitcoin goes mainstream as futures trading begins

(12 December 2017) The incredible story of Bitcoin began a new chapter on Sunday as futures of the cryptocurrency began trading on the Chicago Board Options Exchange at 6.00 pm EST.   Suddenly, the hitherto cultish Bitcoin has burst onto the mainstream as a testament to its relevance in our wired world.  2017 may well be remembered, among other things, as the year of Bitcoin as the computer-based open source currency has risen from $1000 in January to over $18,000.  Bitcoin has attracted huge interest from both novice and institutional investors alike as a possible alternative to government-based fiat currencies. 

While many analysts think it is in a bubble, no one is quite sure when that bubble may burst.  And even if it is a bubble, there is a growing consensus that Bitcoin and its blockchain technology is here to stay.   With the start of futures trading, it seems there are two schools of thought about the future direction of Bitcoin's price.  The optimistic bulls see this mainstreaming of the cyptocurrency as an opportunity for demand to rise as a wider range of people and institutions try to get a piece of the action.  A more cautious, bearish view is that the introduction of futures trading will give larger investors the means to short, or bet against, Bitcoin and this could tank the price in the coming weeks and months.

In my post from September, I thought that the parabolic rally in Bitcoin would likely continue but only after a pullback in October.  Using the first trade horoscope from January 12, 2009, I had expected the Saturn-Lunar Node aspect in early October to correspond with some declines in the price but this did not materialize.   This missed prediction was perhaps due to a miscalculation on my part, and also may have reflected a data error in the horoscope itself.  As I noted, it is unclear which date, time and place we should use as the "birth" of Bitcoin.  For this reason, I was fairly guarded in my prediction as it depended on some speculative assumptions such as the location of Temple City, California where Bitcoin co-founder Hal Finney lived.

Given this missed prediction, I have some doubts about this January 12th chart and yet the timing of Sunday's first futures trade would seem to offer some additional evidence for it.  The first Bitcoin futures traded just as Mercury was in a near-exact trine/120 degree aspect with Uranus, the planet of technology.  And these two planets were in turn, in a near-exact 120/240 degree alignment with the Ascendant at 29 Cancer.  The Asc-Mercury-Uranus alignment speaks to important communications and innovations pertaining to Bitcoin.  It is also part of the reason why the Futures rose by 20% in the first trading session.

The approaching Uranus direct station at 0 Aries is one reason for the current rally.  Uranus will station direct at 0 Aries on January 2nd and thus form a very powerful alignment with the Ascendant in this proposed Bitcoin chart.  I suspect the frenzied rally in recent weeks is partially due to the approach of this very close 120 degree alignment with the Ascendant.   But then the question is: what happens after the station when Uranus begins to separate from its alignment with Ascendant.  Conventional astrological thinking would suggest that euphoria and price would tend to diminish after this date, albeit only gradually. 


Bitcoin Outlook

I am still generally bullish for Bitcoin for the next few months.  Some downside looks more likely during the approach of Christmas as transiting Mars aligns with the Moon, Mercury and and the Lunar Nodes in the Bitcoin first trade chart.  Let's see if this Mars transit after Dec 19th has more effect than the Saturn aspect in October did. 

Another possible shift in sentiment may occur after Uranus turns direct on Jan 2nd.  Since Uranus may have been a bullish influence recently, it's separation from its aspect with Ascendant could see less euphoria in the Bitcoin market. 

I can see that the Saturn retrograde station in April could bring about some significant declines.  Whether Bitcoin is still in a parabolic rally at that time is harder to say.  But it does seem more probable that it will undergo some correction at that time. 



Weekly Market Forecast

Stock remain fairly buoyant over the past week as last week's US jobs report was strong although wage growth was quite modest.  As per last week's market forecast, we did see some downside last week on the Mercury-Saturn conjunction but stocks bounced later in the week as Venus aligned with Neptune.

This week again could bring some downside, probably as a result of tomorrow's Fed meeting.  The Sun conjoins Mercury retrograde and that is often a problematic influence.  Mars conjoins the Moon on Wednesday also so that would hint that the bears may have the advantage in the short run.  While the markets may cheer the very likely Moore win in Alabama because it will protect the working GOP majority in the Senate, I wonder if Janet Yellen may say something that upsets the prevailing optimism.  It's something to watch out for.

Even if we get a down week next week, the approaching alignment of Jupiter with Pluto and the Lunar Nodes over the second half of December would suggest that declines may not last and that further rises are very possible.

For more details and analysis on market trends for this week, this month and this year, please check out my weekly MVA Investor Newsletter.  The newsletter is published every Saturday and includes extended discussion of US and Indian stock markets, as well as gold, oil and major currencies.

Flynn pleads guilty as Mercury turns retrograde on Trump

(4 December 2017) The Russia investigation dominated the news cycle again last week as former Trump National Security Advisor Michael Flynn pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI about his Russia contacts shortly after the election.  Robert Mueller's investigation has taken a significant step forward as it reaches Trump's inner circle for the first time.  Stock markets sold off sharply, although only briefly, on the news of Flynn's plea on Friday.  The Predictit.org odds that Trump would still be president on 2018/12/31 fell from 72% to 66%.  Investors are only now beginning to consider the possibility of a worst-case scenario in Washington where Trump is forced out. 

Obviously, this kind of uncertainty is bad for financial markets.  To be sure, Mueller is long way from implicating President Trump himself and the chances of finding the proverbial smoking gun remain fairly remote.  And yet the more the investigation reveals this kind of deception on the part of Trump's associates, the more it could gradually undermine the presidency.  Ironically, this political setback for Trump arrived in the same week that his bold tax overhaul bill passed its Senate vote.  This is one reason why stocks recovered on Thursday afternoon as the bill now seems certain to be signed into law in the coming weeks, perhaps before Christmas. 

The Flynn guilty plea and agreement to cooperate with Mueller are not unexpected given the current planetary alignments.  In a post about the Mueller investigation from October 12th, I thought that the early December period would bring bad news for Trump due to the close placement of Mercury and Saturn in some key charts.  On December 3rd -- just two days after the Flynn plea -- Mercury turned retrograde while in a close conjunction with Saturn and this occurred in sensitive places in the Trump horoscope and the PEOTUS horoscope.

The Mercury-Saturn conjunction hits Donald Trump's chart on the 5th house cusp and brings in his natal Mars also.  The conjunction also occurs near the 4th house cusp of the PEOTUS chart.  Without going into arguable and speculative details about houses, any Saturn alignment to any equal house cusp increases the risk of negative outcomes.  Mercury stationing and turning retrograde in the same point in the sky merely makes the probability of difficulties that much higher.


What's next?

I think December is likely to bring more pressure and difficulties for Trump.  Saturn is slowly moving through the cuspal area of his 5th house at 6 sidereal degrees of Sagittarius.  It will be conjoined by the Sun on December 21st and then by Venus on December 25th.  While the Sun and Venus may be seen as more benign than Mercury retrograde, the presence of Saturn in these alignments may not be conducive to progress or improvements. 

Jupiter will be a positive influence throughout this time, however, so that could represent the passage of the tax bill through Congress.  However, the position of Saturn usually indicates that some kind of hardship or frustration has to manifest somewhere in Trump's life.  These days that has usually meant the Russia investigation.

Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner also looks to be under a lot of pressure in the second half of December as transiting Saturn conjoins his Venus (= loss of happiness) while Mars squares his natal Mars (= conflict, frustration).  There is a lot of speculation that Kushner may be next in Mueller's sights and certainly his horoscope offers some support for this view.  While other sources of personal difficulty are possible, the Russia investigation is an obvious scenario that fits the planetary pattern during the Christmas holiday period.

After a relatively quiet spell, I think Trump could enter another tense phase with the investigations starting in late February.  Transiting Mars will conjoin his Moon-Ketu and oppose his Sun-Rahu while Saturn prepares to station retrograde at 15 Gemini -- exactly opposite his 11th house Mercury.  This is a terrible transit that is made worse by the stationary nature of Saturn.  This means that the restrictive and pessimistic nature of Saturn is within range of his Mercury for two or three months.  I should note that this will likely be a bad period for the US economy since Trump's 11th house of income and gains symbolizes the country as a whole.  But the Mercury affliction also may represent Trump's growing inability to achieve his ambition and fulfill his wishes.  Saturn will likely put him on the defensive more than ever.

The Saturn station at 15 Gemini also opposes the USA's natal Jupiter so it is worth speculating how Jupiter (law, morality) will be blocked or compromised by this negative Saturn influence.  Some kind of damaging evidence with respect to Russia may come to light here which taints the presidency more decisively.   Although it is clearly a difficult transit, I do not expect Trump to resign at this time.  Instead, I would think there could be a worsening of his position, both in terms of public approval and perhaps more so in the eyes of his own party.  Even if Mueller uncovers some damning evidence against Trump or his campaign team, it is another matter entirely what the political damage may be.  Trump seems unlikely to resign in any event, and he is very unlikely to be impeached when the GOP controls both houses of Congress.  After next year's midterms, that calculation may be different, however.


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks appeared to extend their winning ways on Monday as investors initially cheered the Senate's passage of the GOP tax plan.  The Dow set another record close above 24,000 although most other indexes actually reversed lower during the day as the rally fizzled.  Maybe all that glitters is not gold.  The Indian Sensex has also resumed its winning ways is again fast approaching its previous high of 33,000.  I thought we might have seen a bit more of an across the board pullback last week on the approach of the Mercury-Saturn conjunction but US markets managed to buck the down trend as Europe, India and China declined.

With Mercury now retrograde and in the proximity of Saturn for all of this week, there is an elevated risk of declines across many markets.  The alignment with Mars at midweek also boosts the possibility that we will see some downside this week.  And with the Mercury Rx-Sun conjunction due next week, there are an unusually high number of potentially bearish short-term alignments over the next little while that offer some evidence for a pullback. 

For more details and analysis on market trends for this week, this month and this year, please check out my weekly MVA Investor Newsletter.  The newsletter is published every Saturday and includes extended discussion of US and Indian stock markets, as well as gold, oil and major currencies.