Can stocks rise indefinitely? The astrology of the bull market

(27 October 2017) As most global markets continue to set new all-time highs, some financial analysts are trying to make the case that stocks are not overvalued and are not in bubble territory. Even if stocks suffer from a pullback or correction they argue, there are many reasons why stocks are still a good buy and should continue to rise for the forseeable future. The Federal Reserve and other central banks have essentially now included stock prices in their mandates since their loose monetary policies explicitly intend to increase the value of assets like stocks in order to increase economic activity. As long as central banks can navigate between creating excessive inflation (from interest rates being too low) and boosting sagging demand (from rates too high), the argument goes, stocks are unlikely to suffer a serious bear market as they did most recently in 2008 and in 2000.

My own predictive record has been inconsistent recently. In previous weekly updates, I had expected the US stock market to have moved lower by October. The period from August to October featured a number of apparently bearish alignments which I thought would outweigh other bullish patterns in the charts. Alas, this has not been the case as September saw a rebound from the initial August pullback and October has seen even higher highs. How can we explain this relentless bull market?

Off the top, it is important to note that there are many factors to consider before making any kind of prediction, even a probabilistic one. One of the difficulties in financial astrology -- and all astrology for that matter --- is that every planetary alignment we encounter is literally unique and has never happened before in human history. This means that today's planetary patterns are unique and this is one reason that makes prediction more difficult. What has happened before is that the individual planets have previously been in a particular point in their cycle (e.g. Jupiter transits its current position in the 9th degree of sidereal Libra every 12-13 years).

Astrologers therefore rely on a purely deductive logic that uses one or two-factor sign placements and planetary angles in order to forecast future trends. This simplified deductive approach therefore sidesteps the more difficult problem of deriving net influences from a unique holistic matrix of all the planets. Like all human sciences, astrology is imperfect and does the best it can with the tools at hand.

So how can we explain this huge bull market that has been in place since 2009 which has seen US and other stock markets more than triple their value? Briefly stated, there must be long term factors that will outweigh shorter term passing influences like transits. While Vedic astrology often makes good use of dasha periods to identify longer term trends, they are quite sensitive to birth time inaccuracy. Since there is still some debate about the correct birth time of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) -- I use 10.10 a.m. but other astrologers use 8.52 a.m. and 7.52 a.m. -- a more robust technique that is less sensitive to birth time error may be the Western technique of secondary progressions. A secondary progression is a method of event timing where a single day is symbolically equivalent to a full year of clock time.

So for example, the 10th day after birth can be seen to contain some symbolic resonance in the 10th year of life. In the chart of the New York Stock Exchange, the current secondary progressed chart placements are the transit placements of the planets 225 days after its launch on 17 May 1792. Since the NYSE is in its 225th year, the logic of progressions is that the present day trends can be seen in microcosm through the position of planets on 28 December 1792, which was 225 days after its inception.

A look at this secondary progressed chart and we can see why the stock market should be in the middle of a powerful up trend in recent years. The 90 degree alignment of progressed Jupiter (2 Scorpio ) with Uranus (2 Leo) is very bullish and it is also activating the square aspect of Mercury (2 Taurus) and Pluto (2 Aquarius) in the natal chart . Jupiter is the fastest moving planet in this progressed alignment but it only moves about 12 arc minutes per year. (N.B. There are 60 arc minutes in a degree.) That means this alignment has been gradually forming over several years and only now is it near exact at 2 degrees of the respective signs. Five years ago it was situated at about 1 degree of Scorpio. This was a very positive influence which formed in the background at least five years ago and has been growing in influence as it approaches its exact alignment.

There are a couple of things to note here.  First, bull markets need a series of positive alignments and a relatively smaller number of negative alignments in order to keep stocks rising in value.  Once positive alignments become exact, stocks begin lose positive energy and become more vulnerable to declines as they separate.  This may not happen immediately but it is frequently observed from previous instances.  Jupiter is already separating from Pluto and Uranus but it has yet to form an exact 180 angle with Mercury.  That happens late in 2018.   It is difficult to say which aspect is more crucial for the bull market in this regard -- the Jupiter-Uranus progressed square or the Jupiter-Mercury opposition.  It means there is a significant amount of uncertainty in any prediction we may make.

But the fact that this alignment is close to exact does offer confirmation that the bull market is at or fairly close to its end.  It could extend for another year or so, although other factors would be necessary to provide compelling evidence one way of the other.  Of course bull markets will tend to end not only after positive alignments have run their course but also when negative alignments become close to exact. 

Birth time issues notwithstanding, there are no clearly negative alignments in play at the moment in this chart.  In fact, we can see another positive alignment taking shape in late 2018 when Mercury, Venus and natal Uranus align near 24 degrees of their respective signs.  Since progressed Venus and Mercury Rx both move fairly quickly, this may be a relatively short-lived boost to the markets.  Whether it corresponds with more record highs is therefore difficult to say. 

But it does suggest that some kind of up trend is likely to take place sometime in 2018 and perhaps into early 2019 around this alignment.   And therefore it is possible the bull market that began in 2009 could conceivably last into 2018 and perhaps even 2019.  Other negative transit alignments not found in the secondary progressions are likely to coincide with declines over the rest of 2017 and the first half of 2018 but it is unclear if they will be large enough to officially end the bull market.  By definition, a bull market ends and a bear market begins after a decline of 20% or greater.

A more clearly bearish alignment looks active in 2019 when progressed Mars and the Sun align with retrograde progressed Mercury.   This alignment becomes exact in 2020-2021 and it likely to correspond with a significant decline.  This kind of multi-planet alignment has a better chance of ending the bull market then the lesser negative alignments in 2018.  But it is still just a probabilistic prediction.  It is only one chart -- the NYSE -- and it is using just one technique -- the secondary progressions.  A more comprehensive prediction would require taking into account other levels of analysis including dashas, transits and other progressed charts.  But the takeaway here is that this chart provides evidence for the view that this bull market is likely getting very close to its end, be that this year or next year.  This chart argues against the more optimistic analysts that see stocks in some kind of semi-permanent bull market. 

Weekly Market Forecast

US stocks have been a bit choppy this week as investors nervously await Donald Trump's appointment of the new Chair of the Federal Reserve.    The Dow finished Thursday's session at 23,400.  Indian stocks have extended their advance in October as the Sensex has moved above 33,000.  I thought we might have seen a bit more downside this week on the sign change of Saturn as it entered sidereal Sagittarius.  So far, there is little evidence that this passing transit influence has had any effect on dampening sentiment.

Jupiter still looks fairly strong over the next week or two as it moves further into Libra.  Its conjunction with the Sun this week has been one reason for the gains and it is due to conjoin Venus on November 12th.  The approach of this conjunction could well propel stocks higher for a bit longer.  Even if we see some pullbacks next week, the entry of Venus into Libra next Thursday November 2ndshould offset whatever negativity that may be about.  The outlook may become more tense towards the end of November.

For more details and analysis on market trends for this week, this month and this year, please check out my weekly MVA Investor Newsletter.  The newsletter is published every Saturday and includes extended discussion of US and Indian stock markets, as well as gold, oil and major currencies.

Waiting for Mueller: will his investigation damage Trump?

(12 October 2017) How long can this go on for?  As the Trump presidency enters its 9th precarious month, there seems to be no end to his unpresidential behaviour, his picking of fights with everyone who disagrees with him, and his childish and petulant fact-free tweets.   Even his own Republican party is showing more signs of wavering, as Senator Corker has accused him of risking World War III with North Korea.  And so America's descent into authoritarian populism continues as Trump cultivates chaos and division in order to distract attention from his own ethical shortcomings and inability to actually do the job.

Many on the Left are hoping that Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller can produce sufficient evidence against Trump to run him out of office, either through resignation or formal impeachment.  Indeed, many opponents of Trump see Mueller as the only real hope of forcing Trump from office since the GOP may not have the spine to commit political suicide over their President.  Therefore we need to ask: what are the chances that the Mueller investigation will damage the White House enough to force Trump out of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue?

There are several ways we can go about answering this question.  Exhibit A on this matter consists in the planetary interconnections between the horoscopes of Donald Trump and Robert Mueller.  There are a number of interesting hits.  Mueller's Saturn (13 Gemini) conjoins Trump's powerful 11th house Mercury (15 Gemini).  Trump's ability to realize his goals is due in part to this very strong Mercury placement in its own sign.  The 11th house symbolizes goals, ambitions and wishes fulfilled so Mueller's Saturn is more likely to have a blocking or inhibiting effect.  It is appropriate that Mueller's Saturn is in Trump's 11th house since Saturn represents structure and tradition -- the very things that Trump is seeking to overturn in his attack on the Washington establishment.  The Mueller investigation has been hanging over Trump and his administration for months now and threatens to undermine the ability of the White House to pass its legislative program.

The other possible problem for Trump is that Mueller's Mars (23 Leo) squares his Moon-Ketu conjunction.  This is about five degrees from exact but it nonetheless suggests that Mueller can be a thorn in Trump's side.  Mars in hard aspect to another person's Moon indicates a troubled relationship marked by conflict and disagreement.  So far Trump has generally not focused his criticism on Mueller himself while the investigation goes on behind the scenes.  But it seems likely that Trump is privately fuming against the work of the investigation as it uncovers the nature of Trump's dealings with Russia along with those in his inner circle. 

But we should note a more constructive alignment.  Mueller's Venus-Jupiter conjunction conjoins Trump's Mars and Ascendant.  This is a more positive contact between their charts and could indicate that Mueller and Trump may be able to mutually benefit from their interaction in some way.  While it may not offset the other negative alignments, Mueller's Venus-Jupiter may well end up helping Trump at some point along the way.  Could Mueller end up clearing Trump personally despite indicting several of his staff?   That's one possible reading of this chart pattern.

Another interesting chart overlay is that of Mueller and the chart of the Trump Inauguration on 20 January 2017.   There are several alignments involving Mueller's natural malefic planets (Mars, Saturn, the Nodes) and some key points in the Inauguration chart.  Mueller's Gemini Saturn sits just one degree from opposing Mercury.  Among other things, Mercury can be seen as communication and speech so Mueller's Saturn may be undermining or blocking the Trump administration's ability to communicate its message.  The legitimacy of the Trump White House is an ongoing issue given the steady stream of revelations about Russian meddling in the electoral process.  Mueller's Mars is exactly opposite Venus, the planet of happiness and sociality.  I take this as the negative influence of the investigation that is eroding the presidency.  Trump may try to blame his problems on the media and "fake news", but his positive message is being opposed and delegitimized by the actions (Mars) of Mueller. 

Mueller's Sun-Pluto also squares the Moon in the Inauguration chart.  The Moon is often seen as a proxy for the nation as a whole and the national mood.  Pluto is associated with investigation and the often hidden exercise of power.  No matter what one thinks of the "deep state" in DC, this Pluto-Moon alignment may be a symbolic representation of how the nation is undergoing collective soul-searching given the very real possibility that Trump won the election with the help of the Russians.  Mueller's task is to uncover the nature of the Russian involvement and his efforts are one reason why the US is fragmented as never before.

Yet another reflection of the significance of Robert Mueller at this time is the conjunction between his Ketu and the Sun (6 Capricorn) of the Inauguration chart.  The Sun represents authority in the form of the person of the president as well as the government as a whole.  Since it is a more spiritual and abnegating influence, Ketu tends to undermine the planets it contacts, especially the Sun which seeks to assert the ego.  Mueller's Ketu is clearly undermining Trump's power (Sun) as his legitimacy may remain under a cloud of suspicion for the duration of this term.

While the Trump-Muller overlay at least had some potential upside for Trump, the Inauguration overlay looks worse.  It suggests that Mueller and his work will probably have a lasting negative effect on the Trump presidency. Of course, that doesn't mean that Mueller will force Trump out of office.  It may also result in a lesser outcome such as pushing out some of Trump's principal advisors even if Trump is left unscathed.  But even in that case, his administration would be tarnished and all his claims of "fake news" on the Russia file would be shown to be wrong.


Outlook

While there are numerous astrological indications to support the view that the Mueller investigation will have a very real impact on the White House, when could we expect to see some major developments?  I believe that the upcoming Mercury retrograde station on 3 December could coincide with some major news.  In Mueller's natal chart, transiting Rahu will conjoin his Sun at 22 Cancer.  This is an indication of public prominence as well as some instability in his position.  We can also see how important it will be by looking at horoscope for the day Mueller was appointed Special Counsel on 17 May 2017.   Mercury turns retrograde at 5 Sagittarius which is just two degrees past Saturn.   This Mercury-Saturn conjunction will align closely with the Rahu (4 Leo) in the appointment chart.  The activation of this Rahu by Mercury and Saturn suggest surprising and difficult developments which will likely create a sense of disruption and political uncertainty. 

The exact transit hit of Ketu to the natal Mars around this time also supports the view of some major developments in late November and early December.  An indictment of someone in the Trump campaign is more possible given the activation of Mars (punishments).   The Mercury-Saturn conjunction will occur close to Trump's equal 5th house cusp so that could hint of problems with children and investments.  It's conceivable that could encompass son-in-law Jared Kushner who has been a subject of scrutiny in recent weeks.  Trump's shady and secretive investment history could also be in focus given this 5th house influence.  Those are two possible areas to look out for at least.  Interestingly, the PEOTUS chart is also heavily afflicted by this Mercury Rx and Saturn conjunction which occurs at the very bottom of that natal chart (9 November 2016).  So it seems quite likely it will produce some bad news for Trump.

I will make additional posts on the Mueller investigation as time goes on.  As before, I think the Saturn-Ketu conjunction in mid-2019 is a more plausible alignment that could force Trump from office.  Even then, I'm not sure it will be enough.  Or he could come back as the GOP nominee in 2020 anyway even if he resigned in 2019.  There are many different charts to consider and so far some have contradictory indications.  So I'm not in a position to make a clear prediction about what happens in 2020 although at this point, both Trump's and Pence's charts look quite good.  A second term for Trump looks very possible.  But I need to do more research on it. 


Weekly Market Forecast

Despite the ongoing drama in Washington, US stock markets remain at record levels.  The Dow is edging closer to 23,000 alongside many other indexes in the developed world.  India's Sensex has again reclaimed 32,000 and is also attempting to hit new all-time highs.  I had thought we might have seen more negative sentiment this week in the wake of the entry of Venus into Virgo on Monday the 9th and the Saturn-Rahu alignment.  But markets continue to climb higher on hopes that Trump will get his pro-business tax cut and the Fed will raise interest rates more cautiously in 2018.  A December rate hike seems to have been fully discounted already. 

Looking ahead, we can still expect some fallout from the Venus transit of Virgo, perhaps next week.  The first part of next week looks somewhat bullish, however, as Mercury conjoins Jupiter on Tuesday the 17th.  Declines may be more likely after that.

For more details and analysis on market trends for this week, this month and this year, please check out my weekly MVA Investor Newsletter.  The newsletter is published every Saturday and includes extended discussion of US and Indian stock markets, as well as gold, oil and major currencies.

NRA on the defensive in aftermath of Las Vegas shooting

(3 October 2017) After the horrific mass shooting in Las Vegas that claimed the lives of 59 people and injured another 500, the inevitable question arises once again: why is America so incapable of addressing its unique gun violence problem?    The short answer is that the Second Amendment's "right to bear arms" is an unassailable principle in US society which legitimizes gun ownership, seemingly without limits.  The high levels of gun fatalities are rationalized as "the cost of freedom".   As a non-American, I would suggest that despite its veneer of modernity, the US is very much captive to its traditions which date from more than 200 years ago.  The Constitution is regarded with a near-religious reverence which makes changes to it extremely difficult.

But this constitutional right has also been buttressed by active advocacy by gun owners.  The culture of unrestricted gun ownership has been fervently supported and lobbied for by the National Rifle Association (NRA).  Over the past 40 years, the NRA has poured considerable money and resources into the political arena to make gun control more difficult despite obvious data that show the number of gun-related deaths are spiraling higher as guns become more pervasive. 

From an astrological perspective, I have to think that the horoscope of the NRA must be both powerful and somehow closely intertwined with the chart of the USA.  How else can we explain this strange reluctance of Americans to rationally address the sourge of gun-related deaths?  Not surprising, the NRA horoscope is very strong.  The NRA was granted its charter from the state of New York on November 17, 1871 after its founding meeting the previous day. 

A few obvious things stand out from this chart, regardless of the fact of its unknown time of inception.  First, the Sun-Mercury conjunction in Scorpio was in a close trine aspect with Jupiter (and Uranus).  This suggested a confident and expansive organization which hinted at its growth through the decades.   The stable and determined Capricorn Moon is also boosted by its opposition alignment with Jupiter-Uranus. 

But one look at the exact Mars-Saturn conjunction and we can see why this organization can be so tenacious and aggressive in the pursuit of its goals.  Mars-Saturn reflects a focused and rational approach towards the fulfilling of goals.  There is little room for emotions when this pairing is strong in the chart as it is here.  Mars represents assertion and sometimes aggression, while Saturn is sober and methodical.  It is a combination of planets that is indicative of a calculating approach.  We can even take it a step further as Mars-Saturn may be the perfect planetary reflection of firearms.  Mars is the violent intention to fire a weapon, while Saturn is the rational, scientific structure of the interlocking parts of the weapon itself.

The other thing to note about the NRA chart is that this Mars-Saturn conjunction squares a debilitated (fallen) Venus in sidereal Virgo.   Venus is very damaged here and may reflect the fact that the NRA does not care about creating happiness nor does pay it much attention to its public image or the opposition to its program.  Venus rules popularity and happiness and it is quite telling that it so afflicted in this chart.  While its adherents are loyal and devoted to it, even more Americans likely oppose it.  Clearly, the NRA is not an organization intended to foster social harmony. 


The NRA and the USA: a close relationship

One intriguing side to the gun debate in the US is how powerful the gun lobby is.  It seems to be so completely intertwined with American life that change seems virtually impossible.  One reason for this can be found in the interconnectedness in the horoscopes of the US and the NRA.   The NRA's Rahu (0 Gemini) is exactly conjunct the US's Mars.  This suggests the NRA has the ability to tap into and exaggerate the aggressive component of the US national character.  The Lunar Nodes, Rahu and Ketu, are often distorting and magnifying in their effects on other planets.  That may well be the case here as the NRA brings out the irrationally violent tendency in the US society.   The Rahu-Mars connection can play on fears and anxieties which have their outlook in taking up arms against all possible enemies.

Moreover, the NRA's Mars-Saturn conjunction is almost exactly opposite the Venus-Jupiter-Sun stellium in Gemini.  And it is exactly opposite Jupiter, the planet of justice.  This may indicate that the NRA, through force of will, can block or prevent the natural inclination of the US justice system.  The opposition to Venus (harmony) and the Sun (confidence) may reflect how much of a damaging and divisive force the NRA has been on American society.  I am less clear on the planetary glue between these two charts.  The NRA's birth time is unknown so it may form a close angular hit through its Ascendant.  But we can see that the NRA Jupiter-Uranus conjunction does align nicely with the US Moon (7 Aquarius) and the Ascendant (9 Sagittarius) although by weaker angles.  Both the Moon and the Ascendant of the US are key chart points that reflect the essence of the nation. 


Criticism in the wake of Las Vegas

We can see how the NRA is coming under increased scrutiny in the wake of this tragic shooting.  The ongoing alignment of Saturn-Rahu (North Lunar Node) activates the NRA horoscope.  Transiting Saturn (28 Scorpio) is approaching its conjunction with natal Ketu (0 Sagittarius) while transiting Rahu (29 Cancer) is also aligning with Ketu's position.  Both of these are difficult influences.  Rahu and Ketu symbolize sources of uncertainty and disruption and when they are afflicted in the chart, there can be chaotic situations that feel like the ground is shifting under one's feet.  The NRA has pulled its usual promotional advertising in the wake of the shooting in the hopes that the outrage will all blow over as it usually does. 

So can this time different?  Will the US ever be able to enact meaningful gun control?  I am very reluctant to say that "this time is different" but I do think the NRA will be on the defensive for the next several months.  That's because transiting Saturn is due to enter Sagittarius and will station retrograde at 15 Sagittarius in April 2018.  This will be exactly hitting the dominant Mars-Saturn conjunction in the NRA chart.  This pattern may be indicative of some setback to the NRA.  New gun control legislation is possible, although it could represent other developments.  It could even coincide with another major shooting incident that sets the NRA further back on its heels.  However, the Saturn station is very powerful and I would think it is more likely to symbolize a legislative defeat for the NRA (i.e. a new gun control bill) or other obvious weakening of its power and influence.

Weekly Market Forecast

US stocks have remained buoyant into this first week of October on hopes that Trump's tax cut plan will boost economic growth.  The Dow continues to set records and is now trading above 22,600. Emerging markets such as India have fared less well as large institutional investors have pulled some money out in anticipation of higher interest rates in the US and Europe.  With bond yields rising, there is less rationale for capital to chase riskier assets in the developing world.  Gold has also declined as a result of the Fed's desire to normalize rates. 

In my last post two weeks ago, I thought that stocks were more likely weaken in the end of September and early October as the Jupiter-Uranus opposition began to separate last week.  This hasn't happened yet, at least in the US and Europe. 

This week has actually been very positive although I do note the approaching Venus-Mars conjunction in the second half of the week.  This seems less conducive to gains and I would think the Mars influence could well be bearish.  And yet since this is one factor out of many, it is unclear if the anticipated October pullback in the US can begin this week or perhaps it will wait for the entry of Venus into Virgo after Monday, October 9th. 

For more details and analysis on market trends for this week, this month and this year, please check out my weekly MVA Investor Newsletter.  The newsletter is published every Saturday and includes extended discussion of US and Indian stock markets, as well as gold, oil and major currencies.