Stocks rebound as China averts bank crisis

(30 June 2013)  Stocks rebounded last week as Bernanke's foot soldiers at the Fed did their best to talk the markets back off the ledge.   US markets rose 1% on the week as the Dow closed at 14,909.  Indian markets followed suit as the Sensex posted a 3% gain finishing at 19,395.  I thought we might have seen the more cautious mood extend into midweek but stocks generally posted their low on Monday and rallied after that.  The late week Venus-Jupiter aspect may been a key driver of sentiment here as highs in the US occurred at Thursday's close and on Friday in Mumbai.

Perhaps less surprising was gold's sharp decline as it traded below $1200 on Wednesday before staging a modest recovery to $1230.  This extended decline in gold was expected ahead of the Saturn direct station on 8 July.  As I have noted previously, the current position of Saturn lines up almost exactly with the Ascendant in the 1919 gold horoscope.  This is one key reason why gold has been so widely sold in recent months.  Interestingly, the big drop on Tuesday and Wednesday coincided exactly with the Sun's alignment to bearish Saturn and sickly Neptune.  According to traditional astrological thinking, the Sun is the planetary ruler of gold. 

The other big financial news last week was the emerging banking crisis in China.  Over the past few years, the government has pumped trillions into the economy in order to promote growth and avoid a recession.   This has created an unsustainable bubble in real estate and massive debt loads in China's shadowy secondary bank sector.  As the housing market cools, many of these loans are going bad to a point where China may be on the verge of another US-style sub-prime mortgage meltdown.  The Shanghai stock exchange fell out of bed on Monday and only an emergency intervention by the People's Bank of China on Tuesday prevented an all-out crash.  The Shanghai Composite Index was down 15% for the month of June. 

We can see this latest decline in the Chinese market reflected in the horoscope of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, re-established in the post-Mao era on 15 December 1990.  There are a number of difficult transits at the moment involving both fast and slow moving planets.  Slower moving planets are often implicated in longer term periods of market weakness when the outlook is mostly negative.  The Moon's nodes (Rahu and Ketu) are in the middle of the fray in this respect, as Ketu (21 Aries) is closely aspecting the Moon (23 Sagittarius).  Ketu has stationed over the past month or two so this destabilizing energy has been in effect for some time.  Chinese stocks have generally been weak through the month of June although they drifted somewhat higher in May. 

Whenever we see a major decline in the markets, Saturn is usually in the picture in some way and that is again the case here.  Saturn is stationing at 10 Libra next week and has been edging backward as it concludes its retrograde cycle.  This sets up a full-strength 3rd house (60 degree) sextile aspect to the close Mercury-Venus conjunction at 14 Sagittarius.  The Sun (3 Sagittarius) is also somewhat affected by this Saturn transit.  While these aspects are not exact, the influence is likely still noteworthy due to the reduced velocity of Saturn ahead of its direct station. 

For short term aspects that may have correlated with the specific decline last week, transiting Mars (22 Taurus) was exactly aspecting the Moon (23 Sagittarius) through its full strength 8th house aspect.  This is also known as a 150 degree quincunx aspect in Western astrology.  Mars is considered a first-class malefic influence and its close geometric relationship with the Moon speaks to sudden and violent emotional reactions in the stock market.  On Monday and Tuesday, the main Shanghai index had fallen over 10% before the emergency PBOC intervention.

The additional problem here, however, was that Mercury, the planet of trading and commerce, was due to station at 29 Gemini on Wednesday.  This approaching Mercury retrograde station was almost exactly opposite the natal Saturn in the stock exchange chart at 0 Capricorn.  Mercury stations are times of high planetary torque which can produce sharp moves in the market.  If they are geometrically associated with benefic planets like Jupiter, they can produce sudden gains.  But when they are tightly connected with malefics like Saturn as is the case here, they usually spark big declines.

All of these afflictions are lessening now so there is good reason to expect Chinese stocks to stabilize.  Ketu is slowly moving away from its aspect with the Moon although Saturn remains in a somewhat difficult place over the next few months.  Nonetheless, the absence of any major short term afflictions suggest a rebound is even possible.   However, Saturn is due to conjoin Rahu in the sky in September at 14 Libra and this will exactly aspect that Mercury-Venus conjunction at 14 Sagittarius in the SSE chart.   This would suggest that stocks may not be able to rally too far and indeed another move even lower is possible around that time.

This week features a couple of complex transit alignments.  The early week looks to be the most active time as Monday's Mars-Mercury aspect will occur very close to the time when Venus aligns with Saturn and Neptune.  On the face of it, both of these alignments look difficult due to the presence of malefics Mars and Saturn.  That said, there are occasions when apparently bad aspects turn positive in their effects due to the sheer high number of geometric connections involved.  I'm not sure that can happen here, however.  More often, bad planets are just bad.   Friday also stands out as Mars enters sidereal Gemini.  Mars sign changes can create tension and are sometimes correlated with declines.

Emerging markets suffer from tapering talk; Bernanke speaks Wednesday

(16 June 2013)  Stocks mostly lost ground last week as stimulus tapering worries continued to spook investors.  In New York, the Dow declined by more than 1% closing at 15,070.   Indian stocks also fell as the contraction of liquidity continued to hit emerging markets hard.  The Sensex slipped by almost 2% on the week finishing at 19,177.  I thought we might have seen more strength in the early part of the week on the Mercury-Venus influence but its effects were quite limited.  The absence of much upside here on these putatively positive aspects is perhaps evidence of the approaching Saturn-Neptune aspect at the culmination of the Saturn retrograde cycle on July 8th.

Emerging markets appear to be in the cross hairs at the moment as they act as a sort of early warning system for a global financial system that is dependent on central bank monetary expansion (i.e. money printing).  Disappointment over the size and scope of the Japanese government's stimulus plan caused the Tokyo market to extend its recent sell-off.   Fears that the Fed may soon be winding down its QE3 bond-buying program is having a similar effect on many emerging markets as "hot money" is now beating a swift retreat back to the US and Europe in search of safer harbors until the outlook becomes clearer. 

India's market looks vulnerable to more downside in the near future.  The horoscope of India's National Stock Exchange (NSE) shows considerable planetary afflictions over the next several weeks.  Saturn is settling into an near-exact conjunction with the Moon in this chart at 11 Libra.  Saturn is due to station on this point in early July and will only then begin to slowly move away from the Moon.  Saturn is bearish by nature and therefore it should be considered as a negative factor for stocks.  It won't always be bearish in its effects, of course, as other factors can outweigh or even transform it.  The problem at the moment is that most of the other active factors in the NSE chart look difficult.  Transiting Neptune is conjunct the natal Saturn at 11 Aquarius.  Neptune to Saturn contacts are usually problematic and reflect an erosion or illness (Neptune) that affects foundations and principles (Saturn).  Due to the very slow velocity of Neptune, however, this is quite a long term influence can could reflect market movements over the next year. 

More immediately, transiting Rahu conjoins its natal position in the NSE chart at 21 Libra.  This is another influence that tends to be difficult.  In the horoscopes of individuals, such nodal returns (since Rahu, the North Lunar Node, is returning to its natal position) mark times of change and disruption where instability is more common.  In stock markets, it can indicate times of volatility and unpredictable or unreliable movements.  To be sure, Rahu is something of a trickster and gains are still possible under its transits.  But in probabilistic terms, this is still a negative influence that tilts the picture towards a glass half-empty interpretation.  The Rahu-to-Rahu transit is made a little more negative by virtue of the Mars-Rahu square in the natal chart. 

On the plus side, transiting Jupiter has now entered Gemini and is moving up to its trine aspect to the Moon in mid-July.  This is a potentially important bullish influence which could offset some of the negativity we associate with Saturn.  On balance, though, the picture still looks problematic. 

It is possible that some of the negative effects of these various contacts have already manifested.  Indian stocks are already off their recent highs as investors await the next clear direction. That is an argument that the influence of Saturn, Neptune and Rahu have already been felt in recent weeks.   It is therefore not inconceivable that most of the downside associated with these transits have already occurred.  However, my sense is that there may be some more negativity to come, perhaps as closer to the time when Saturn reverses its direction on July 8th.  We shall see.

This week could be important for markets worldwide as Ben Bernanke makes his latest pronouncements of the fate of QE3 and the possibility of ending the Fed's bond-buying program on Wednesday.  Interestingly, Bernanke will speak on the day that Sun conjoins Jupiter, a quintessentially bullish pairing.  This may augur well for sentiment that day so there is some reason to expect some upside this week.  However, there are a few ways we could interpret this symbolic combination of planets.  The bullishness of these planets could reflect a Bernanke's optimism about the US economic recovery which would then allow for a quicker tapering process of QE3.   This could well be negative for the markets which have become dependent (or addicted!) to the Fed doing the heavy lifting in the markets of late. 

Alternatively, it could simply mean that investors are optimistic heading into the Fed meeting and that Bernanke is successful in his attempt to reassure investors that all is well and he has their back.  This would be more bullish for stocks.  Mercury is due to conjoin bullish Venus later in the week so that is another potential source of optimism here.  I would tend towards a more straightforward bullish interpretation of the planets this week although I would note that the market does tend to weaken after the Sun separates from Jupiter.   A post-FOMC decline is therefore somewhat more likely here, regardless of what Bernanke says.  It should be an interesting week!

Obama on defensive after US surveillance revelations

(9 June 2013)  President Obama seems to have lost his midas touch recently.  This week's revelations of widespread US government spying on its own citizens was only the latest of a series of scandals and embarrassments that has put Obama on the defensive.  Things have got so bad that even the usually sympathetic liberal media outlets such as The New York Times are criticizing him for his unprincipled acquiescence to this expansion of the security state and the further erosion of civil liberties.  Obama's approval ratings are now under pressure and there is more talk that his agenda has been irretrievably comprised.  Thursday's bombshell report by The Guardian of NSA surveillance through compliant phone and internet companies gives fuel to the suspicions sowed by his right wing foes that Obama is an advocate for Orwellian Big Government.

As is often the case, Obama's current troubles are the result of the placement of several different planets at once.  First, we can see that transiting Rahu (North Lunar Node) is stationary at the top of the chart in the 10th house, just two degrees from his equal house cusp (24 Libra).  Rahu isn't always bad news but it can coincide with challenging new situations when other planets confirm.  The 10th house represents status and profession so it is appropriate that Obama would be experiencing disruptive situations affecting his job at this time.  His status and reputation have taken a hit as more traditional supporters are now openly questioning his commitment to liberal values and principles as well as his presidential legacy.  We also note that Obama's natal Rahu is not well-placed in the 8th house (= obstacles) with Pluto and Uranus.  To some extent, when Rahu moves through his horoscope it will carry that difficult 8th energy with it.  We should also note that Rahu has been stationary at 22 Libra since April -- roughly the time of this string of scandals which have included the IRS audits of the Tea Party, the secret subpoenaing of the Associated Press reporters phone records, and the growing skepticism of official accounts of the Benghazi consulate attack.

But Rahu is only part of the story here.  Saturn's position also figures prominently in Obama's difficulties.  Saturn is retrograde here and is backing into its station in early July at 10 Libra.  It is therefore forming a very close square aspect to Mercury.   Saturn-Mercury aspects are classic indicators of frustration and disappointment and often occur when we make mistakes or are trapped by unfortunate developments.  Interestingly, Mercury rules Obama's 9th house of justice and legal matters and many of Obama's problems are due to perceptions that he is not committed to legal and constitutional notions of personal privacy in the face of excessive government intrusion.  The Saturn influence is arguably worse because it is forming a 150 degree quincunx aspect to the Moon.  While this is not a full strength Vedic aspect, it is close enough to be inflicting some harm on Obama, especially on his popularity which is ruled by the Moon.  Saturn-Moon aspects are often found in situations where we feel isolated and alone.  Many of Obama's usual political allies seem to be deserting him at the moment, as he has adopted the more conventional position of previous presidents in defending the need for greater surveillance and data mining in the service of national security.

Finally, Neptune may also be implicated in Obama's current situation.  Neptune (11 Aquarius) is almost exactly square Obama's Moon (10 Taurus).  Neptune is associated with deception and illusions and when it is in hard aspect to the Moon, it can indicate times when a person loses sight of themselves and what they believe in.  It is important to remember that this planetary combination does not judge people's intentions.  Whether Obama has willfully deceived the public or he has been deceived by others remains a separate and non-astrological question.  Indeed, the Neptune-Moon aspects can describe situations whereby Obama maybe deceiving himself as he has lost touch with his core beliefs -- that is another possible manifestation of this planetary combination.  The net result is often a time of personal confusion where things are not going the way we intend or wish for no matter how diligent our conscious efforts.   It is interesting to note that Neptune turned retrograde on Thursday -- the very day that the relevations about government spying through the NSA's Prism program hit the press.  Planets are at their maximum influence whenever they change direction in this way, either forward or backward.  The likelihood of a negative impact was increased since Mars was square Neptune that day and hence exactly conjunct Obama's Moon.  This would be a time of extreme agitation (Mars) related to deception and spying (Neptune).

If things are bad right now for Obama, when are they likely to improve?  I think June may continue to be difficult for him since Saturn will still be afflicting his Mercury.  Saturn will reverse direction and begin to move away from its aspect with Mercury on July 8.  I would think Obama would feel less pressure after this date, although improvement may be fairly slow in coming.  Rahu will begin to move at its normal speed in July so that broadly confirms the idea that he could face continued hostility and skepticism through most of June.  The transit chart for July 1 shows how these ongoing aspects from Rahu, Saturn and Neptune will still in place.  The Mars-to-Mars square aspect in early July could represent one last awkward or embarrassing scandal or setback but one would think things would begin to improve after that.

Just as last week's Mars-Neptune square appeared to be implicated in this latest Obama embarrassment, it also roughly correlated with a low point in the stock market.  Stocks drifted lower through much of the week on worries of an early end to the Fed's QE3.   The late week rebound on the mildly positive jobs report gave US stocks a positive result for the week as the Dow finished at 15,248.  Indian stocks fell through the week, however, as the Sensex lost 2% finishing at 19,429.  I had thought Friday's exact alignment suggested a more negative outcome although I acknowledged that the complexity and torque of the pattern meant that any outcome was possible. 

This week looks somewhat more positive -- at least in the early going -- on Monday's triple conjunction of the Moon, Mercury and Venus.   The Sun is approaching its conjunction with bullish Jupiter on the 19th so that is another positive factor in the current celestial mix.

Markets ponder early end to QE3 as stocks fall

(2 June 2013)  Stocks trended lower last week as markets pondered the possibility of an early end to the Fed's quantitative easing program.  US stocks fell by about 1% with the Dow finishing the week at 15,115.   Despite a sharp sell-off Friday, Indian markets ended the week mostly unchanged with the Sensex closing at 19,760.  This outcome was not unexpected as I thought we might see some weakness enter the market after the various Jupiter influences had culminated on Thursday.  As expected, Monday's Mercury-Jupiter aspect coincided with a strong rally.  Stocks also generally rose further through Tuesday's Venus-Jupiter aspect and the entry of Jupiter into Gemini of Thursday.  Once all that bullish Jupiter energy had manifest on Thursday, that opened the door for Friday's global decline.  It is worth noting that Friday also featured a close Mars-Mercury aspect, a commonly bearish influence. 

While US markets have pulled back somewhat in the past week, we may well ask if is this yet another bull market buying opportunity or is the market finally on the verge of a larger correction?  Certainly, the Fed and other central banks continue to shovel liquidity into the market and give investors good reason to hope that the good times will continue for a while longer.  But there are some clouds on the horizon.  The Japanese market extended its decline last week and underlined the fragility of such central bank-driven rallies.  Abenomics and promises from the Bank of Japan to boost inflation pushed up stocks 60% in just a few months, but sentiment can change quickly if the market gets too far ahead of itself.  And if this Friday's US jobs report is stronger than expected, then it could be trouble (ironically) for stocks since it will likely mean an early end to the Fed's QE3.  Most of this rally has been dependent on QE3 and if the economy is recovering, then it means that QE3 has to end.  This would be negative for the market.

US treasury yields rose sharply last week, including Friday's session.  This is a red flag because bond yields and stocks usually move in the same direction as a falling stock market drives traders to the relative safety of bonds and this lowers their yields.  Not so this time around as bond buyers were demanding a higher return from Bernanke's funny money program.  While it is only one day out of a bad week for treasuries, it is something worth watching very carefully.  The Fed cannot allow yields to rise too high too soon or else the rationale for the entire QE program (i.e. low rates!) will be invalidated.  2.4% on the 10-year is one potential line in the sand that could ring alarm bells at the Fed as the market calls Bernanke's bluff of endless easing and a massively lopsided balance sheet.  Friday's yield got as high as 2.2%. 

But as we know, every bull market climbs a wall of worry, so it is entirely normal for there to be some possible trouble spots for the market.  The astrological perspective would tend to support the half-empty glass interpretation, however, as the 120-degree Saturn-Neptune aspect is due to become exact in early July.  This is usually a bearish combination, although one could argue that the 120 degree trine aspect is less damaging than the square or opposition aspects.  This pairing of Saturn and Neptune in a geometrically significant alignment is quite rare since both planets move so slowly.  The last trine aspect between Saturn and Neptune occurred in June 1977.  At that time, US stocks were in the middle of a major decline that lasted for much of that year.   Stocks fell 3-5% in June just ahead of this aspect.  This is just one data point, of course, and it would be wrong to extrapolate too much from it.  Nonetheless, it does confirm the theoretical tendency of Saturn aspects to correlate with declines in the market. 

This time around the Saturn-Neptune aspect is potentially more damaging since Saturn is due to culminate its retrograde cycle and begin to move forward again in early July just as it forms this aspect with Neptune.  This Saturn station therefore will lengthen the geometric association with Neptune and therefore makes this contact more negative.  And just to make things really interesting, Neptune also stations and begins its retrograde cycle on June 7th, just as the aspect is exact.   So this aspect will actually be extremely tight for a period of six weeks from early June to mid-July as both planets slow down around their respective stations.  This is quite an unusual and potentially harmful pairing of planets.  All other things being equal, this extended aspect between Saturn and Neptune increases the risk of a larger decline in the markets. 

As an added complicating factor, Jupiter forms a grand trine with Saturn and Neptune on July 17-22.  Jupiter is often a bullish influence and its presence in this alignment could conceivably coincide with some positive sentiment.  This might mean that market optimism will begin to return around that time window when Jupiter is strong.  Conversely, it could also indicate a time of maximum confidence and a rallying stock market.   This alternative scenarios are, in fact, opposites but both must be considered when we think about how these multi-factored alignments can manifest.  I tend to think that Saturn's bearish influence will carry the day because it will be slower than Jupiter and therefore the more powerful planetary influence.  This may be especially true in early July.  

This week should be quite interesting.  We will get a little preview of that July alignment of Jupiter-Saturn-Neptune when fast-moving Mercury inserts itself into that grand trine position with Saturn and Neptune.  What happens on Monday and Tuesday could therefore provide clues about July.  Both positive and negative outcomes are possible here.  The late week could be even more interesting as Mars forms an alignment with both Saturn and Neptune on Friday.  This looks more problematic for stocks so I would tend to think stocks could fall, maybe by a lot.  Neptune could serve as a planetary amplifier as it turns retrograde on Friday just when the Mars aspect hits.  There is quite a bit of torque with this pattern so no outcome would surprise me.  And as it happens, that powerful-looking alignment occurs on the day that the US jobs report will be released.