Sequestration cuts likely inevitable as Saturn asserts control

(24 February 2013)  Financial markets showed some signs of nervousness last week as sequestration budget cuts loomed and evidence mounted that the Federal Reserve may end its quantitative easing program sooner than expected.   US stocks were largely unchanged as the Dow finished the week at 14,000 even.  Most other global markets were somewhat more bearish.  Indian stocks slipped by less than 1% as the Sensex finished the week at 19,317.   As expected, markets were generally stronger in the first part of the week as the planetary aspects were sufficiently bullish to offset the negativity from the Saturn's retrograde station on Monday the 18th.   And perhaps not surprisingly given this Saturn influence, gold continued its decline as it closed below $1600. 

More broadly, Saturn's bearish influence would appear to hang over this market as investors try to come to terms with a number of areas of uncertainty.    Monday's Italian elections are one potential mine field that could shake confidence, especially as it looks somewhat unlikely that a stable coalition will be formed.  The political wrangling in the US continues over the debt sequestration agreement is set to go into effect on Friday March 1.   With both sides now digging in, it now seems likely that the required (Saturnian) spending cuts will take place.  This is likely to reduce economic growth in 2013 and hamper recovery efforts.  We should also mention that Thursday's Indian Union Budget is another possible source of worry if the anticipated investment reforms are not delivered.

Of course, bull markets have to climb a "wall of worry" so perhaps the current situation is not all that unique.  And yet the planetary picture would offer the pessimistic view somewhat more confirmation.   Not only is Saturn virtually stationary in the sky (and hence more powerful) but it is forming a near-exact 60 degree angle with Pluto.  While various interpretations of this Saturn-Pluto aspect are possible, my sense is that this ramps up the negative potential in collective sentiment.  Pluto often represents compulsory structural change involving large organizations while Saturn dictates change through destruction and loss.   When it is strong and unafflicted, however, Saturn can also be a force for stability, restraint and continuity.  The problem here is that this more positive interpretation of Saturn is perhaps less likely given this geometric connection with Pluto.  The US budget cuts from the March 1 sequestration would appear to fit well into this aspect between Saturn (restraint) and Pluto (forced or compulsory actions).   It is less clear how the Italian election result will reflect this pairing.   Perhaps a win by the pro-austerity Bersani would reflect Saturn's current dominance and its emphasis on fiscal responsibility.  But there is always a distorting and destructive element with Saturn that is never too far away.  A shaky coalition government that includes more anti-austerity voices could also conceivably reflect some of his destructive Saturnian symbolism, especially if this encourages more caution and anxiety in Europe.   In this sense, the symbolism of Saturn is not always as unambiguous as one would like in an independent variable.  This makes predicting the markets with financial astrology very much an open-ended and probabilistic enterprise. 

This week the planets would appear somewhat negative.  There is a potent conjunction of Mercury and Mars on Monday and Tuesday that is in close aspect with Rahu (North Lunar Node).  This really looks quite nasty and may reflect quickly evolving situations where information is unclear or concealed.   Given the Italian elections conclude on Monday, it is not hard to draw a straight line from this alignment and some kind of negative market reaction.   That said, Monday also features a fairly supportive Sun-Jupiter aspect which is usually more bullish in its effects.   I wonder if this Jupiter influence will merely serve as an amplifier for the size of the reaction rather than a determiner of its content.  It's hard to say with certainty.   Thursday's Venus-Neptune conjunction is more bullish, so that may correlate nicely with a positive market reaction to the latest Indian Budget.

Transits for Thursday 28 February 11.00 a.m IST Mumbai, India

Gold plunges $50; stocks hold steady

(17 February 2013)  Stocks generally held steady last week as most economic data continued to suggest that the recovery is slowly proceeding apace. US Stocks were mostly unchanged as the Dow lost only a handful of points on the week closing at 13,981. Indian stocks were similarly flat as the Sensex was only marginally lower finishing at 19,468. I thought we might have seen more downside than we got as the array of short term aspects with Saturn suggested the possibility of declines. At the same time, I did not lose sight of the continuing aspect between bullish Jupiter and Uranus which has lifted collective sentiment for the past month or more. In other words, we had a result that did not violate our basic assumptions and remained within general expectations.

Gold had a more interesting week as it fell by 3% closing near $1610. It seems that all this fresh evidence of a recovery means that there is less reason for the Fed and other central banks to print money with various quantitative easing measures. This in turn reduces the possibility of inflation and the subsequent damage to the buying power of national currencies. In a more stable economic climate, gold is less attractive as an inflation hedge. The recent decline in gold is very much in keeping with our expectations as I thought we would see more weakness in February around the Saturn retrograde station. This has proved to be the case as Saturn turns retrograde tomorrow, on Monday the 18th. Gold broke a key technical support level at $1620-1640 last week and now there is a growing sense that it may remain bearish for a while here.

The 1919 natal chart for gold also reflects the current bearishness around the yellow metal. The 1919 horoscope represents the first public price for gold as arranged by a small group of London banks. It is certainly not the only relevant horoscope for gold but it is one that has often yielded some useful information. As we can see transiting Saturn -- a very bearish planet -- sits in the 1st house of this chart and casts its powerful square aspect to the triple conjunction of Mars, Neptune and Jupiter. This is a serious affliction, especially now that Saturn is stationary and therefore more powerful. On the other hand, we could also argue that both Jupiter and Uranus form harmonically significant aspects to the ascendant at 12 degrees of sidereal Libra. This ought to have produced some bullishness given the optimistic nature of Jupiter. As is often the case, Saturn tends to outweigh Jupiter, all other things being equal. In this case, however, they are actually worse as Ketu perhaps casts the more decisive vote towards bearishness. Ketu, the South Lunar Node, forms an exact trine aspect to the Sun-Venus conjunction in the natal chart. This is often a difficult influence and often coincides with sudden changes and instability. Given the centrality of Saturn in this chart at this time, we can see that Ketu would tend to show its more anti-materialistic side. Ketu is a good planet if you're seeking esoteric knowledge and spiritual enlightenment, but not so good if you're a gold bug in search of better investment returns.

This week all eyes are on Saturn is the gloomy ringed-planet turns retrograde on Monday. This is generally a negative influence on sentiment albeit one that can manifest in the background for some time.  The fact that it is aspecting Pluto is also a negative influence.  The short term aspects this week actually look somewhat promising. Monday's Moon-Jupiter conjunction is bullish, Tuesday's Moon-Venus aspect is also bullish and Wednesday's Sun-Neptune conjunction is also arguably bullish. Even Thursday's entry of Venus into Aquarius is bullish. I'm not sure how these bullish short term aspects will be reconciled with the medium term pessimism that will likely be conjured by Saturn turning retrograde. Perhaps there will be stalemate. It's very hard to say either way. I would tend to think that at least some of those bullish aspects should translate into gains at some point. Just how much upside they produce remains to be seen, however.

Transits for Thursday 21 February 2013

Global stocks fall on Europe uncertainty

Stocks were mixed last week as positive economic data coming out of China was offset by renewed European worries and the possible return of Berlusconi to Italian politics.  In New York, the Dow lost just a handful of points closing at 13,992.  Indian stocks fared worse, however, as GDP data came in below expectations.  The Sensex lost 2% and finished the week at 19,484.   The mixed outcome here was not surprising as I noted some difficult aspects in play on Monday (Mars-Neptune) and Friday (Mercury-Mars).  The midweek was somewhat less bullish than I might have hoped, however, as the Venus-Jupiter aspect produced only nominal gains. 

While US Stocks held up rather well last week, there are cracks forming in the recent rally across many global markets.   Could this be the beginning of a correction or merely a bump in the road on the way to higher prices?  As I have suggested previously, Jupiter may be on the verge of weakening here as it forms its closest angle with Uranus this week.  The Jupiter-Uranus combination is usually quite bullish but now it is at its maximum potential energy.  That means that further optimism may be in shorter supply going forward.   Saturn may already be asserting itself as the planet of bearish pessimism prepares to turn retrograde on the 18th.   It is moving very slowly already and last week's negativity is a possible symptom of Saturn's greater influence.   This influence is not evenly distributed across all markets, however, as individual charts still have an important role.

For example, the German DAX horoscope is becoming more afflicted these days from the Saturn station and its aspect with Pluto.   Like the Indian market, German stocks also suffered last week as renewed uncertainty about the upcoming Italian election and the scandal in Spain hit equities hard.  A quick look at this chart reveals the potential trouble spots.  Jupiter is strong in the 11th house but it is not closely aspecting any planet.  This would appear to reduce the possible upside here.  Pluto opposes the natal Sun in this chart while Saturn is about to station in a very close 120 degree aspect to the Sun.   Both are slow moving aspects so this is a potentially damaging affliction.   As an added wild card, we can see that transiting Ketu is in the 10th house and close to the cusp of that house at 25 degrees.   These are medium term afflictions that will likely inhibit the ability of the German market to rally in the weeks to come.  The presence of this strong Saturn aspect alongside the Pluto and Ketu placements also increases the possibility of some kind of negative move in February and beyond. 

This week looks like there is a lot of Saturn in the picture and hence the bias is to the downside.  Venus is in aspect with Saturn on Monday, while Mercury moves into position on Tuesday and then Mars on Friday.  To be sure, the high number of simultaneous aspects in play is in itself a bullish indication.  However, Saturn is very strong at the moment, and I would tend to think that there may be some fallout from this succession of interactions with Saturn.   We shall see.  All of these short term aspects of Sun, Mercury, Venus  are now past their exact point with Jupiter and hence any further upside may be somewhat less likely.