US tries to avert fiscal cliff: lessons from the 1996 shutdown

All eyes remain fixed on Washington, DC these days as the fiscal cliff negotiations continue between the Obama White House and House Republicans led by Speaker John Boehner. Unless a deal can be struck before the December 31 deadline, the government will be compelled to enact spending cuts totaling $6 Trillion and raise taxes across the board, in accordance with the rules of sequestration set down in the 2011 deal ceiling agreement.  It is widely believed that if the US does go over the fiscal cliff and the cuts and tax increases are enacted, there will be a substantial slowing of the economy.  Needless to say, financial markets have been closely following the talks and the lack of progress so far has led to recent declines in the stock market. 

In last week's post, I suggested that November did not look promising for any quick solution.  The combined relationship horoscope of Barack Obama and John Boehner did not look promising for an agreement.  Jupiter seemed to have a stronger role in December in this chart and increased the possibility of cooperation and hence a deal. However, it is hard to base predictions on such an approximate chart, since Boehner's birth time is unknown.

This week I wanted to look at the fiscal cliff problem from another angle.  The national chart of the USA should offer some clues about when a deal is more likely to be found.  As a rule of thumb, a deal would be more likely when benefic planets form more aspects than malefic planets.  The Sun is the planet that symbolizes government so a deal would be more likely when the Sun is under the influence of a favorable planet.  Conversely, we would expect Mars to be relatively inactive if a settlement could be found between the two sides.  Mars typically represents situations of conflict and frustration, especially when it is involved in an aspect with another natural malefic. 

We can gain added perspective by looking at similar situations in the past.  In 1995 and 1996, the US was similar plagued by political disagreement over budgetary matters as the government was shutdown for several weeks.  President Bill Clinton and Speaker Newt Gingrich could not come to an agreement over the extent of spending cuts and the result was an unprecedented period of political rancor and dysfunction.  We can clearly see how afflicted the US horoscope was on November 13, 1995 when talks broke down between Democrats and Republicans.  Transiting Rahu (disruption, distortion, selfishness) was aspecting the natal Mars (conflict, frustration, assertiveness).  Since Rahu moves quite slowly, this was one of the main sources of the ongoing conflict in government that lasted into January 1996.  There were actually two periods of shutdown, as an temporary emergency agreement expired in December and that led to another shutdown from December 16 to January 6. As an added burden for that initial shutdown on November 13, transiting Mars cast its full strength 8th house aspect (the quincunx) to the Sun (government) reflecting conflict involving government.   We also note how all three of the transiting planets Venus, Mars and Jupiter are under the close influence of Saturn's full strength 3rd house aspect (i.e. 60 degree or "sextile").  Saturn is often a negative or impeding influence so its triple aspect here of these transiting planets would tend to undermine the ability of each to fulfill their promise.  Saturn therefore blocked Jupiter's wisdom and capacity for balanced and harmonious thought, Mercury's communication and rational intelligence, and Mars' positive potential for quick and decisive action.  The chart as a whole was very afflicted when talks broke off and the shutdown occurred. 

But a resolution was found on January 6.  We can see that most of the afflictions had passed by that time.  Rahu had moved passed its tight trine aspect with Mars by a full two degrees, thus much of the source of the animosity would have lessened by the time an agreement was reached.  With Mars less prominent, there was less aggression in the air and this created more space for compromise.  Transiting Jupiter had moved away from the negative influence of Saturn and in fact had moved to sit atop the ascendant, which represents the body, self or in this case, the country as a whole.  This is usually a very positive transit in any event, and strongly supports the notion that Jupiter brings harmony and enlightened thought to most situations.  The symbolism of Jupiter to the Ascendant is an unmistakable indication for relief and resolution that this agreement would have provided.  The crisis had passed and now the government could return to its normal functioning.

The current fiscal cliff negotiations are perhaps less serious but it is nonetheless analogous.  The current chart is afflicted but arguably less so than in 1995.  Transiting Rahu is still afflicting Mercury which can undermine communications and rational thought.  This transit has been in effect for several weeks already and contributed to some of the voting problems on election day.  The fact that Mercury is still in close aspect with Rahu is not positive for getting a deal done in my view since it will tend to distort communication between the key institutional actors.  If a deal does get done under this transit, it seems less likely to last or accomplish what was intended.

Looking at this chart for later this week, we can see that transiting Mars (10 Sagittarius) is exactly conjunct the ascendant of the 6.30 pm USA chart -- not good.  On its better days, Mars can symbolize taking necessary action (esp. military action) but it is opposite Venus here so that does not look conducive for cooperation or agreement.  Venus is also a co-ruler for wealth and the economy so that is an added problem for such matters.  Uranus is setting up in a square aspect to the ascendant ahead of its station in December.  This is another source of instability in a general sense, especially since it also forms an aspect with Venus.  Transiting Saturn (11 Libra) is closely aspecting the ascendant at the moment which can tend to depress the mood of the country as a whole.  This may be a reflection of the anxiety about the negative economic effects of the fiscal cliff.  This may also be one reason why the markets are not doing well. 

A deal seems fairly unlikely as long as Mars is in Sagittarius and continues to oppose the natal planets in Gemini. Mars will move out of Sagittarius in mid-December so that may remove some of the ongoing conflictive mindset. That is perhaps the first favorable window of opportunity for an end to the fiscal cliff negotiations.  Alternatively, mid-January also looks positive as Venus enters Sagittarius and thus conjoins the Ascendant. More broadly, by January we can see that the Rahu-Mercury transit will be weakening as Rahu moves away.  This will tend to improve the chances for constructive and rational discussion over time.  Given the level of dysfunction and partisanship in DC these days, that is definitely a good thing.  Overall, then, I think the odds are fairly good that a deal will get done, although it is possible we may have to wait until January.  Whether it or not it is achieved before then is harder to say with any certainty.

As noted above, the markets are not doing well under the shadow of the fiscal cliff talks.  US stocks fell again last week as the Dow closed down 1% at 12,588.  Indian stocks were also lower as the Sensex lost 2% finishing at 18,309.  This negative outcome was in keeping with expectations as I suggested last week that the two negative Mercury aspects with Neptune and Mars were likely to correlate with losses. 

The outlook this week may be somewhat better due to a positive Sun-Venus-Neptune aspect in the first half of the week.  This is in keeping perhaps with the traditional bullish bias of the market before the US Thanksgiving holiday.  However, there is a tight Saturn-to-Mars aspect forming here that may reduce confidence. The aspect is closer later in the week so declines are more likely at that time.  Friday's Mars-Uranus square aspect could also bring some nasty surprises for the market.

Transits for Wednesday 21 November 2012  9.30 a.m. New York

Obama wins re-election; faces fiscal cliff negotiations with Boehner

US President Barack Obama won re-election on Tuesday narrowly defeating Republican Mitt Romney to win a second term in the White House.  While Obama won by only 2% in the popular vote, he carried most of the key swing states and hence had a more comfortable margin of victory in the Electoral College.  Obama's win confirmed my prediction made back in June that he would defeat Romney as Obama's horoscope generally looked stronger in November.  While I am obviously happy with this outcome, it's important to acknowledge that as predictions go, it isn't that impressive.  The election only had two candidates and hence only two outcomes.  The race was fairly close but most pollsters had given Obama the edge for most of 2012.   The odds of calling the outcome correctly was therefore a little less than forecasting the outcome of a coin toss.  Fortunately, astrologers can sometimes enhance and add value to that initial prediction by also describing the ups and downs of the race.  While pollsters can deliver some impressive results in the science of public opinion, none has the ability to predict the specific ups and downs of a campaign the way astrology can.   To this end, I offered some observations on the last two debates and the dynamics of the final weeks of the race.  For the most part, these were proven correct as Obama won the last two debates as the momentum shifted towards him in late October.

For all the talk about Mercury turning retrograde on election day, nothing too dramatic or bizarre actually happened.  To be sure, there were some significant voting problems in various states as voters were forced to wait well into the night to cast their vote even after Obama had been declared the winner.  Hurricane Sandy also created problems for many voters in places like New Jersey, although it did not affect the outcome of the race in any significant way.  The vote in Florida was so close that Obama was only declared the winner yesterday -- four days after the fact.  That's the kind of delay one would expect from a Mercury retrograde, so that is a modest reflection of its energy potential.  Overall, however, Mercury did not confound or delay the decision.  Last week, I suggested that the problems would more likely be manageable since the USA chart for the 2012 election was much less afflicted than the chart for the 2000 election. This proved to be correct, although I was still surprised and frankly a little disappointed that we didn't even get a single state recount.  Mercury definitely came in at the very low end of its spectrum of disruption and confusion.  It may be time for the concept of Mercury retrograde to be subjected to a more rigorous Popperian assessment. 

But with the win behind him, Obama must now deal with the fiscal cliff.  Obama must negotiate a deal with House Republicans in order to prevent automatic cuts in spending and tax hikes.  This is a huge issue with major economic implications as failure to come to an agreement may well cause another recession.  The fiscal cliff is also creating jitters on Wall Street as last week's decline was the result of investors weighing the possibility of slower growth and higher taxes if no deal is struck.  The deadline for a deal is December 31, although it is also possible that one could occur after the deadline in January with a retroactive clause to restore funding.  A post-facto January deal would nevertheless cause some profound angst in the financial markets until it actually got done.  With so much on the line, can Obama find common ground with his long-time adversary Republican House Leader John Boehner?

There are any number of ways to delve into this question, all of them indirect and therefore quite inferential and speculative.  But that goes with the territory of astrology.  For me, one of the most intriguing windows on this question concerns the relationship of Obama and Boehner.  When this relationship comes under planetary pressure by malefics like Saturn and Mars, there is more likely to be rancour and discord.  When benefics like Jupiter and Venus are more prominent in the relationship horoscope, then an agreement is more likely.  I have found the Davison relationship chart to be useful in this regard.  Basically, this is a horoscope that is cast from combining the charts of the two individuals.  One takes the the halfway point in between the dates of birth of Boehner and Obama, as well as their  places of birth.  Since we don't know Boehner's birth time, this is a more approximate chart so we have to confine ourselves to planet-to-planet contacts.  Nonetheless, it is still revealing.

Obama and Boehner famously tussled on the debt negotiations in the summer of 2011.  Talks broke off on July 22 as the country careened perilously close to bankruptcy since there was not enough money to cover the US government's debt obligations.  The planets for July 22 show the level of animosity that may have pervaded the relationship of these two men.  Transiting Saturn (17 Virgo) was closely conjunct the natal Venus (16 Virgo) indicating obstacles, delays and the unlikelihood of progress.  Even more problematic was the tight conjunction of Mars and Ketu (SN) with natal Ketu (SN) at 27-28 Taurus.  Mars was also square its natal position at 26 Leo.  It's worth noting that the presence of a natal square between Mars and Rahu/Ketu is one reason why the two men may not get along.   Mars is frequently implicated in disagreements and conflicts, while the nodes Rahu and Ketu often serve as magnifiers for this Mars energy.  The natural tendency of Mars to assert its will can become headstrong and out of control when under the influence of Ketu.  This is more or less what happened when both men angrily denounced the other as unreasonable and intransigent when the talks broke down.  It also probably did help matters that the Uranus-Pluto square had set up just a couple of degrees from the natal Sun.

But cooler heads eventually prevailed and a deal was finally struck nine days later.  By this time, Saturn had moved away from Venus somewhat thus allowing for more progress to occur.  Mars had also moved away from Ketu (both Ketus actually!) and thus defused the animosity between Obama and Boehner.  There was also a boost in positive planetary contacts as the Sun and Venus had moved into aspect with the Moon.  Progress was more likely under the influence of Venus, which is a more sociable and conciliatory energy. 

This time around the prospects look fairly good that a deal will eventually be struck.  Transiting Saturn is not really in the picture (at least this particular picture which is only an approximate chart) as it does not form aspects with any planet. However, there are two contacts in November that suggest there may be some difficulties in this relationship in the short run.  On November 23, Mars and Uranus form a very powerful and intense t-square with the natal Sun.  With Mars in the mix, we should expect some conflict here.  Uranus symbolizes sudden or unexpected developments, so it may come out of the blue.  Perhaps this will coincide with a breakdown of talks, or a sudden change of heart of one of the individuals that is poorly received by the other.  Just four days later on November 27, Mercury will end its retrograde cycle in an exact conjunction with the natal Saturn.  Mercury-Saturn combinations are not usually found in positive situations as they represent heavy or onerous communications that is often met with frustration or disappointment.  Will this be a case of "back to the drawing board"?  It may well highlight a time of blocked progress, especially coming so soon after the Mars-Uranus-Sun pattern. 

The presence of these difficult aspects suggests that a quick deal may be unlikely.  Jupiter will aspect Venus quite closely in early December so perhaps that will mark some substantial progress.  Perhaps they can even work out a deal then -- I'm not sure yet. I will revisit this question in future weekly posts in this space.

Meanwhile, markets reacted negatively to Obama's re-election as it increased the likelihood of the fiscal cliff and higher taxes, especially on capital gains. The Dow lost more than 2% closing at 12,815.  Indian markets fared better, however, as the Sensex suffered only a fractional decline closing at 18,683.  This negative outcome was in keeping with expectations as I thought that the aspect between retrograde Mercury (trading) and Saturn (loss) would likely translate into a fall in the markets. 

This week looks difficult again for the markets as Mercury forms a square aspect with Neptune on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mercury then continues to run the gauntlet as it enters into a tense alignment with Mars on Thursday.  To add to the reservoir of available energy, there is also a solar eclipse on Tuesday at the tail end of sidereal Libra.  While a mixed week is still somewhat possible here, the most likely outcome would seem to be for more downside.

 

Transits for Tuesday 13 November 2012 9.30 a.m. New York

 

Obama enjoys narrow lead in polls but Mercury may have final say

The election is just two days away and Barack Obama is poised to be re-elected President of the United States.  Polls have showed a small but significant move towards him in the past week in the aftermath of hurricane Sandy.  Obama clearly had a good week just as I suggested he would last week in this space. He appeared presidential in his handling of the Sandy disaster and received plaudits for his efforts from most corners, including from New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, a Republican. While the race is still extremely close, polls from key swing states like Ohio clearly show Obama on the verge of victory.  As political analyst Nate Silver has shown, the fact that Obama had led in 19 out of 20 recent Ohio polls is clear evidence that he will very likely win on Tuesday.  Without Ohio, it is very difficult to see how Romney can put together the 270 electoral college votes needed to win the White House.  Silver currently puts the odds of Obama winning at 83% while at Intrade.com, the online betting site, Obama's advantage stands at 66%.  

Even with Obama with a clear advantage, the prospect remains for some kind of unexpected developments on election day due to Mercury turning retrograde on Tuesday.  Just what these might be is more speculative, although it is not difficult to come up with some possible scenarios.  Recounts due to tight races are the most likely development, although I wonder if a simple recount would be sufficiently strange to reflect this unusual planetary pattern.  Perhaps not.  Many Democrats fear the Republicans stealing the election, as the Romney family indirectly owns part of Hart InterCivic, a company that manufactures most of the voting machines in Ohio, along with several other states.  Certainly, if Romney were to actually win Ohio where he has not led in a single poll, there would be an outcry of protest from suspicious Democrats.  This would certainly fulfill the uncertain and strange promise contained in this particular Mercury retrograde cycle.  I don't think this is likely but certainly the planetary picture is sufficiently weird that this kind of scenario is more likely than it otherwise might be.  Perhaps there will be some other kind of snafu on voting day that will serve to confuse or delay the final outcome.

One more look at the USA chart reminds us of the potential for problems.  The natal Mercury (3 Cancer) is getting a full-on aspect from transiting Rahu (North Lunar Node), although this is now past exact.  Mercury can be considered the planet elections so its affliction here by Rahu is suggestive of problems.  In a way, the closeness of the election and uncertainty regarding the outcome can be seen as a manifestation of this ongoing Rahu influence.  Rahu symbolizes disruption of the status quo, deceptions, and instability.  Rahu has stationed at 2 Scorpio and thus has been aspecting the natal Mercury for several weeks already. 

Mercury was also afflicted in the 2000 election that famously gave us the "hanging chad" and ultimately the Supreme Court decision. At that time, Mercury was under a very close 3rd house (sextile) aspect from transiting Saturn.  Actually, we can see that the USA horoscope was somewhat more afflicted in 2000 as transiting Rahu was conjunct the Sun.   The Sun represents government and leaders, so this Rahu conjunction was one reason for the interruption in the smooth transfer of power -- Rahu was interrupting or suspending the normal status of government.  We can also see that transiting Jupiter (15 Taurus) was exactly in aspect with natal Ketu (South Lunar Node).  This reflected a situation of changing or uncertain (Ketu) legal principles (Jupiter) in the legal battle surrounding the vote.   Transiting Mercury went direct at 6 Capricorn, thus forming an exact square with Pluto, the planet of power and manipulation.  Mars was also involved as it formed a close square aspect to the ascendant.  Mars-Ascendant contacts are often found in situations where there is a concentration of energy and action. 

This time the Mercury retrograde station at 10 Scorpio does not form any close aspects with any planets in the USA chart.  If the 6.30 pm chart is correct (a big "if" to be sure), then this Mercury station falls on the exact 12th house cusp, a very vulnerable spot in the chart as it suggests loss of communication, perhaps through hidden or nefarious means.  Mars is also in play here, as transiting Mars opposes its natal position.  There will likely be quite a bit of energy (to put it politely) and this should produce a significant amount of animosity around the results. 

But the good news is that neither Jupiter (law) nor the Sun (government) are closely involved in any obviously negative patterns.  This suggests the amount of legal wrangling will likely be less significant this time around in the event we have some recounts or legal challenges.   Since the extent of affliction appears to be somewhat less, there is good reason to think we won't have the same level of intensity and uncertainty that we had in 2000.  And of course, it is still possible that nothing much out of the ordinary will happen at all.  This would be disappointing from an astrological point of view as it would reveal more weaknesses (i.e. errors) in astrological theory.  But I am of the school that mistakes are the best teachers.  Francis Bacon, the founder of the scientific method, also recognized the indispensability of mistakes when he said that:  "truth emerges more readily from error than from confusion."

 

Finally, I noticed an intriguing alignment in the Obama campaign chart (April 3, 2011) for Inauguration Day, January 20, 2013.  This chart looks quite strong now due to the aspect from transiting Jupiter to natal Saturn.  It also indirectly picks up the Sun-Jupiter conjunction in Pisces.  But look at what happens to malefics Saturn and Mars on January 20.  Saturn moves exactly to the ascendant while Mars has moved right atop the IC (unequal 4th house cusp).   In most charts, this would be a terrible sort of event.  Saturn is placed in the 12th house of loss in the natal chart and here it has moved to the ascendant -- not good at all.  Mars on the IC is also rarely good, I think, as it denies health and happiness.  At first glance, one would be tempted to think this represents Obama being very unhappy on Inauguration Day, as if Romney would be up there taking the oath of office instead of him.  That could happen of course, although it doesn't seem likely given the rest of the charts involved.  But remember that this is a campaign chart and that the Inauguration represents the culmination or "death" of the campaign.   Perhaps like the butterfly that emerges from the caterpillar, this could simply represent the successful end of the campaign and the beginning of his second term.  Nonetheless, this is a somewhat paradoxical chart that doesn't easily fit with the overall notion of an Obama win.  Truth be told, I would have preferred if there had been some more benefic planetary activity here just to be on the safe side. 

In the markets last week, stocks generally held their own.  US stocks were mostly unchanged as Friday's decline offset earlier gains. The Dow finished at 13,093.  Indian stocks were somewhat stronger as they escaped Friday's negativity.  The Sensex rose by less than 1% closing at 18,755.  The week unfolded largely according to last week's forecast as we saw some early week declines around the Venus-Saturn aspect followed by a rebound into Thursday's Venus-Uranus aspect.

This week's Mercury retrograde station (on Tuesday at 6 pm EST) looks like a negative influence mostly due to its close aspect with Saturn.  Declines from this extended aspect could happen at any time.  Venus forms a more encouraging aspect with Jupiter on Thursday, however, so there is at least some possibility for gains.  But then bearish Mars enters sidereal Sagittarius on Friday.