Obama's Happy Halloween?

The presidential race is coming right down to the wire now.  Polls show Mitt Romney with an average 1% lead in the national popular vote but Obama continues to enjoy a slight edge in terms of the electoral college.  As expected, Obama did come out on top in the last debate.  As I suggested in the previous week's post, the respective campaign charts showed that Obama's chart was being strongly influenced by benefics Mercury and Venus.  By contrast, Romney's campaign chart was under a difficult Mars aspect.   It was intriguing to see how well these campaign charts appeared to coincide with the debate outcomes. 

I would expect Obama to have a fairly good week this week, especially around Wednesday and Thursday.  On those days, the Moon transits sidereal Taurus where it will conjoins his natal position.  If we look at his relocated chart for Washington, DC, we can see how his Moon moves to the 1st house.  What's important to note here is how the current transit of Taurus will highlight to favourable trine (120 degree) aspects with Jupiter and Venus.  Jupiter (21 Taurus) is also in Taurus where it is exactly trining the Midheaven (10th house cusp).  The Midheaven is connected with status and public profile and this Jupiter aspect tends to benefit those areas of life.  The Moon transit will tend to underline this influence and bring it out more strongly.  Similarly, Venus (9 Virgo) will be trine his natal Moon (10 Taurus) which is a favourable influence often associated with positive social contacts (with the population) and general happiness.  The transiting Moon will also punctuate this transit and tend to make it stronger in its effects in the middle of this week.  Natal Jupiter (7 Capricorn) will also help to bring out the more positive sides to these Venus and Moon transits since they will form a rough grand trine pattern where each planet is separated by 120 degrees. 

I'm not sure where this boost for Obama will come from.  Perhaps it will come from improved poll numbers.  Or perhaps hurricane Sandy will somehow work to his advantage.  The storm is expected to severely damage the Northeast.  Such disasters can be politically significant, as George Bush knows all too well.  While he benefited enormously from the 9/11 attacks after his visit to Ground Zero, his administration was pilloried for its weak and incompetent response to hurricane Katrina.  If Obama tours the damage and shows him in a strong and compassionate leadership role, then that could work out positively for him.  Mars may be a helpful planet for him this week as it is his 11th house ruler (Scorpio), and it will be exactly conjunct his equal 11th house cusp (24 Scorpio).  The 11th house represents gains and opportunities.   But since Mars is involved here, that may suggest gains (11th house) may come from conflict and destruction (Mars).  This is likely overstating the natural qualities of Mars, but it is a plausible enough scenario given the approaching storm.

So there is some evidence to suggest that Halloween won't be all that scary for President Obama.  The planets may well have some treats in store for him.

Meanwhile in the markets last week, stocks generally declined on more reports of slowing corporate earnings.  US stocks fell by almost 2% as the Dow closed at 13,107.  The Indian market also lost some ground as the Sensex eased back to 18,625.  This negative outcome was in keeping with expectations as I thought the dual effects of the Sun-Saturn conjunction and the entry of Venus into Virgo would likely dampen enthusiasm for risk.   Venus is debilitated in Virgo and its entry into sidereal Virgo on Tuesday coincided exactly with the largest decline of the week. 

This week could see more downside in the early going as Monday's Full Moon is often bearish.  In addition, we can see that Mercury forms a difficult square aspect with Neptune and Venus aligns with Saturn.  Gains are perhaps somewhat more likely heading into Thursday's Venus-Uranus aspect.

Obama wins second debate; third debate on Monday

The US presidential race remains as tight as ever with national polls showing just a 1% difference between Obama and Romney with less than three weeks to go before the vote.  As I suggested in last week's post, Obama did emerge as the slight winner in the last debate according to most polls. In keeping with the stronger influence of Mars at the time of the debate, the contest was much more spirited and argumentative than the first debate.  Romney's chart suffered from an unfortunate placement from transiting Mars and hence he was unable to harness the energy of the fiery red planet as Obama did.

The third and final debate is slated for Monday night in Boca Raton, Florida.  In my opinion, the stars again favour Obama.  At the same time, I would admit that their respective birth horoscopes are perhaps more equivocal than I would like to see.  Transiting Venus (29 Leo) is exactly conjunct his natal Mars and this is not necessarily a good combination.  At best, it may suggest a love (Venus) or fighting or conflict (Mars).  It does not bode well for establishing friendship and goodwill, although we should recognize that is probably the last thing of Obama's mind.   The Sun (6 Libra) and Saturn (8 Libra) are lining up in a potentially difficult square aspect with Mercury (9 Cancer).  This could inhibit Obama's ability to clearly express himself as Saturn often distorts or denies the promise of the planet it associates with. Saturn-Mercury contacts are also prominent in situations of frustration and disappointment so there could be some elements of the debate that will be problematic for Obama.  It's definitely not a good influence, although Saturn is moving quite slowly here so it is possible it may not directly affect his performance on Monday. (See last week's post for these natal charts)

Romney's chart actually has a much better placement for that transiting Venus opposite the Sun.  The problem here is that it is a bit past its opposition so it may not do him much good.  And that transiting Mars (17  Scorpio) is still squaring all his Scorpio planets and will be exactly squaring the midpoint of Mars and Mercury.  This may or may not be decisive, but it does not look particularly helpful.

A more telling difference can be found in the charts of both campaigns, and more specifically in the relocated campaign charts for Boca Raton.  Transiting Mars (17 Scorpio) opposes the Sun in the Romney campaign chart (2 June 2011 1.16 pm).  This is a symbolic combination for confrontation, especially ones that go against the interests of the campaign.  If this chart works, it does look like Obama will be on the offensive here and it will cause Romney more headaches.  What is potentially worse for Romney is that when his campaign chart is relocated to Boca Raton, that transiting Mars moves to the exact bottom of the chart and therefore squares up against his ascendant.  This is rarely a positive set up.  Romney may well be feisty himself, but it seems it may work against his best interests somehow. 

By contrast, the Obama campaign chart brings up the Mercury-Venus aspect to the ascendant.  Mercury is rising at 29 Libra in this chart putting the focus on communication and intelligence.  To be sure, Rahu (North Lunar Node) is also just three degrees away so that is one potentially complicating factor.  Venus is also exactly aspecting the ascendant from the 11th house of gains.  This is another excellent placement and suggests that the outcome is more likely to favour Obama.  The Mercury-Venus combination suggests Obama may come across as more intelligent and speak with more grace and even humour.

To be sure, these campaign charts are one step removed from the candidates' natal charts, so this analysis is somewhat more speculative than it otherwise would be.  And the absence of any strong indications for success in Obama's natal chart suggests that this prediction for another Obama debate win definitely deserves an asterisk or two.

Meanwhile, stocks were mostly unchanged last week as shrinking corporate earnings offset some encouraging data out of China.  In New York, Friday's sharp decline left the Dow flat on the week at 13,343.  Indian stocks were also neutral last week as the Sensex held its own at 18,682.  Gold slumped to $1720 as the Sun entered sidereal Libra, its sign of debilitation.  Overall, this outcome was not unexpected as I thought the aspects looked fairly mixed. 

This week may tilt more negatively, however, as Venus enters sidereal Virgo, its sign of debilitation on Tuesday.  Some gains may be more likely in the early week, however. Thursday's Sun-Saturn conjunction would also suggest growing caution and pessimism.  This is also likely to create more declines for gold as both the Sun and Venus are debilitated until mid-November.

US Presidentail race tightens; Mercury turns retrograde on election day

As the polls tighten in the US presidential race, it may be a good time to speculate how that Mercury retrograde station on election day might affect the outcome on November 6.  As I've discussed previously, Mercury will turn retrograde on the day of the election. The reversal of Mercury's direction on election day suggests the possibility of confusion and uncertainty around the outcome.  The logic here is fairly straightforward.  Mercury is a planet that symbolizes communication.  When Mercury is strong and otherwise unafflicted, our thoughts and ideas can be exchanged more or less clearly and rationally.   However, when Mercury ceases its forward motion and begins to move backward in the sky, then we may become more prone to misperception and miscommunication.  This tendency towards ineffective or ambiguous communication is likely heightened around the time of the stations where Mercury changes its direction.  With between 3 or 4 retrograde cycles per year, that works out to 6-8 such Mercury stations where this order-subverting energy is at its theoretical maximum.  Perhaps the most well-known example of this phenomenon was in 2000 when Mercury also reversed its direction on election day (it turned direct) and the US entered a strangely protracted period of political uncertainty when the winner of the election remained unknown for 5 weeks until a Supreme Court decision finally awarded the election to George Bush.

While it is always possible we could see a replay of the 2000 election with state-wide recounts and legal intervention, there are other possibilities to consider as well.  This week's polls suggest that Romney has pulled into a national lead of about 1%.  However, Obama remains ahead in the electoral college count due to his more concentrated support in swing states such as Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado.  Some writers have discussed the scenario whereby Romney could win the overall popular vote but Obama would win the electoral college and hence the presidency.  Such an electoral college/popular vote split is still quite unlikely, but if the election were held today that would likely be the outcome.  But the problem here is that scenario may not be sufficiently uncertain to fulfill the promise of this tricky-looking Mercury retrograde station.  Even if Obama did win under those circumstances, it would not create any uncertainty since it would adhere to the rules of the game.  It would likely further undermine his legitimacy in the second term, however, as Republicans would become more extreme in their opposition to Obama.  Gridlock in Washington might well intensify (if that's possible) under this scenario. 

Looking at the US horoscope for election day, we can that the potential problems extend beyond just the Mercury retrograde station.  At the time of the election, Mercury will station at 10 Scorpio, which is almost exactly on the 12th house cusp of the 6.30 chart.  Clearly, one does not want to over-emphasize such house placements when the accuracy of the USA chart is still in question.  And yet, this is definitely a more difficult placement for Mercury since the 12th house is broadly negative and concerns confinement and foreign matters, among other things.  From this placement, it is possible that there may be some noteworthy foreign dimension to the outcome, up to an including foreign interference.  Of course, Saturn is also in close aspect with Mercury on election night and hence Saturn will sit on the 11th house of gains in early November.  Saturn is often negative in its influence so this could signal difficult economic implications from the election.  An indecisive or disputed election would likely hurt the US credit rating since bond rating agencies would correctly surmise that a disputed election result would reduce the likelihood of co-operation on the fiscal cliff that threatens the country on December 31.  Rahu is also involved here as it is in a close 120 degree trine aspect to natal Mercury in the US chart.  While Rahu to Mercury aspects can mark an occasion of novel thinking and intellectual breakthroughs, they are also commonly found in times of confusion.  In that sense, the Rahu influence on Mercury is a very close echo of the energy contained in the Mercury retrograde station.  Given the afflicted nature of this chart at this time, I think the more  negative interpretation of Rahu-Mercury is more likely.

Perhaps more worrying is the close opposition aspect between Mars (28 Scorpio) and its natal placement at 0 Gemini.  Such hard Mars to Mars aspects are frequently correlated with situations of conflict so it seems quite likely that the election will generate some hard feelings among the losers.  There has been some mention of possible civil unrest after this election as passions are running quite high.  I would expect more of a Mars affliction here if the civil unrest was going to be a major problem.  As it is, the Mars to Mars transit is only in force for a few days.  That may not be strong enough to correlate with some bleaker scenarios of widespread violence.  Therefore, my guess is we are likely to see more harsh talk and inflamed passions than any actual violent action.  With Neptune still closely conjunct the US natal Moon, I would expect those feelings and emotions will be running close to the surface as the ideal image of America will be thrust into the foreground around this election result.  Conservatives are convinced that Obama is trying to remake America into some kind of socialist society that violates its constitution and founding principles.  No doubt this kind of talk will persist and possibly increase after the election.

The bottom line here is that I think there is a good chance that we will see some significant complications on election night that will remain unresolved in the days afterwards.  It seems likely that any post-election scenario will be more disruptive and uncertain than the electoral college/popular vote split discussed earlier.  Just what that might be is hard to say.  It does seem possible that the rancor from the fiercely fought election campaign is unlikely to go away any time soon.  This is likely to affect the ability of the US government to act decisively on its pressing economic and budgetary issues in the post-election period.  I would also expect this contentious result and/or stalemate will negatively affect stock markets.  Another term of an Obama presidency could be neutral for markets, however.  While corporate spending is down due to the perceived threat of tax increases and the impact of Obamacare, the higher levels of government spending from an Obama administration would likely be stimulative for the economy and the stock market.  Furthermore, if Obama is re-elected (as I still expect he will), then Bernanke's loose money policy is likely to continue.  Quantitative easing has been generally good for stocks, so it seems likely that if Obama re-appoints Bernanke in early 2013, we can look forward to more such stimulative money printing from the Federal Reserve.

On that score, the markets were down last week as corporate earnings guidance have reduced profit projections for 2013.  The Dow was down about 2% on the week closing at 13,329.  Indian stocks also lost ground as the Sensex fell to 18,675.  Gold also tumbled to $1755 as the spectre of recession reduced inflation dangers.  While I was uncertain about last week, I wondered when Jupiter's retrograde period would begin to weaken sentiment. It may have begun already as stocks have trended lower since its retrograde station on October 4.

This week could see more fallout from Jupiter's reversal although it should be noted there will be some positive short term aspects, too.  On Tuesday, Mercury and Venus will align with Jupiter so that suggests the possibility of some early week gains.  However, the Sun's enters sidereal Libra on Wednesday.  Not only is the Sun debilitated in Libra, but it will move into closer conjunction with Saturn in the days ahead.  This is another plausibly negative influence on stocks. Gold is also likely to weaken further as a result of this debilitated Sun in the weeks ahead. 

Transits for Wednesday 17 October 2012  9.30 a.m. New York