Markets rise on Sun-Uranus; Mars-Ketu due Tuesday

Stocks rebounded forcefully last week as fears about Japan lessened and US growth prospects continued to show signs of improvement. In New York, the Dow climbed more than 2% closing at 12,220 while the S&P500 ended the week at 1313. Indian markets were even more bullish, as the BSE-Sensex soared 5% closing at 18,815 with the Nifty finishing at 5654. This bullish outcome was perhaps a reflection of Monday's Sun-Uranus conjunction which I had suggested was a fairly positive influence in the early going. I had been more unsure about the rest of the week, however, given the unreliability of the midweek Venus-Ketu aspect and the mix of energies at the end of the week.

This recent rise in stocks is perhaps somewhat anomalous with the close opposition aspect between Jupiter and Saturn, now just one degree from exact. As a general rule, closer aspects are more powerful in their effects and if this aspect is mostly negative, then stocks should tend to decline around the date of their exact aspect, which is March 28-29 in this case. While that is likely true, it is important to note that both Jupiter and Saturn are slow moving planets and usually require faster-moving triggering planets to release their energy. We didn't have a triggering 3rd planet last week, so that was one reason why the markets recovered. So even though the aspect will begin to separate and therefore weaken after Monday, its mostly bearish energy can be released for days or even weeks afterwards if we get the right triggering planets involved in the alignment. This appears to be the case now as we have a series of transits involving fast-moving inner planets (Sun, Mercury, Venus, Mars) that will all conjoin Jupiter in the month of April. It promises to be a fascinating time.

It's also worth noting that planetary energies for good or ill will not always manifest clearly in the market. Negative energy such as what we see with Saturn aspects can sometimes show up in the form of a war, or natural disaster that may not have any obvious economic implications. The 2004 tsunami in the Indian Ocean was an example of this type of event that occurred near a negative planetary alignment of Saturn and Pluto and yet did not have any effect on the market. All of which is to say that there is still a lot we don't know about the relationship between the motions of the planets and life on Earth. Astrology's empirical foundation is fragmentary at best (not unlike economics perhaps!), and this is why it exists in a rather isolated, dark corner safely away from the mainstream.

This may be quite an interesting week. Not only will we see the exact Jupiter-Saturn opposition late on Monday (GMT), but we will also have a square aspect between Mars and Ketu (South Lunar Node) in the first half of the week. Mars aspects with the nodes can be quite lively and energetic and often correlate with quick action and sudden changes. Since both planets are considered natural malefics, there is a somewhat higher possibility for declines here. And given the Jupiter-Saturn encounter, we can't rule out some major "volatility", as they euphemistically say in the business media. This Mars-Ketu aspect doesn't quite qualify as a "trigger" since it will not aspect Jupiter-Saturn, but it may act as a kind of pseudo-trigger. Mercury turns retrograde late Wednesday (GMT) in fairly close aspect to Rahu. This may be a mostly neutral influence, although the Rahu influence here suggests an overload or distortion of information. In some instances, this could be a good thing but it should be treated with caution. At the same time, the Moon conjoins Venus and Neptune on Wednesday and Thursday, so that may exert a mildly calming effect. Friday's Mars-Neptune aspect seems more negative, especially since the Moon will be in the proximity of Mars later in the day in the US.

Markets fall on Japan fears; Jupiter approaches Saturn

Japan's nuclear crisis delivered another blow to the markets last week as investors pondered the implications of a disruption of the global supply chain. In New York, the Dow broke below the 12K level falling almost 2% to 11,858 while the S&P500 finished at 1279. It was much the same result in India as another RBI rate hike added to the inflation anxiety with the BSE-Sensex slipping 2% to 17,878 while the Nifty ended the week at 5373.

This negative outcome was very much in keeping with my bearish general expectation ahead of the Jupiter-Saturn opposition aspect. However, some of the intraweek moves did not perform quite as anticipated, even if I suggested a higher level of ambiguity here. The early week Mars-Saturn aspect was bearish as expected in the US, although India ended flat over Monday and Tuesday. More interesting was the outcome of the midweek Mercury-Jupiter conjunction. Usually this is a bullish influence, although I noted that the proximity of Saturn's aspect might mitigate of those effects. Well, Saturn not only mitigated them, it basically reversed them as US stocks fell into Wednesday. Indian markets appeared to adhere more closely to the negative effects of Fridays' Mercury-Saturn aspect as this activated a key pattern in the natal horoscope of the BSE.

So far, the Jupiter-Saturn aspect appears to be fulfilling its bearish promise as we prepare for the exact opposition on March 28-29. As I have noted, these two giants of the solar system usually make news whenever they come together by aspect. As symbolic opposites, they represent the extremes of optimism/pessimism, expansion/contraction and gain/loss. While their energies some sometimes be constructively combined when they are favourably placed or aspected by benefic planets, they tend to be somewhat incompatible. While one might think they are roughly equal in strength, in practice Saturn tends to carry the day. That's because as a more distant planet, it moves more slowly. In astrology, the general maxim is: the slower the planet, the greater the strength. This is perhaps a sobering reminder of the nature of the human experience: the strongest of the visible planets symbolizes structure, pessimism, and loss! Thanks, I needed that.

This week presents another mixed bag of aspects starting with Monday's Sun-Uranus conjunction. Uranus' risk-seeking outlook often manifests as gains on aspects like this, although the upside may not last long as the conjunction is exact before the start of trading in New York (although after the close in Mumbai). The Venus-Ketu/SN aspect may exert an influence on proceedings starting on Wednesday and lasting into Thursday. This is often a negative influence, although it is somewhat unreliable in that respect. Due to natal chart hits, Indian markets may be feel its effects more than the US. The end of the week is quite mixed as Venus heads towards its conjunction with Neptune. This is quite a bullish influence, especially for gold and oil, but it may well pan out to include most asset classes. However, it is exact only on Saturday so Asian markets may be less likely to feel it. But potentially offsetting influence here is that Mars enters sidereal Pisces on Friday and that can be a bearish influence. Given that mix of energies, I would not rule out any outcome.

Stocks fall on growth concerns; Mercury-Jupiter this week

Stocks slipped again last week as new data out of China suggested slowing economic growth in an increasingly inflationary environment. This double whammy was too much for New York to bear as the Dow fell more than 1% closing at 12,044 while the S&P500 finished at 1304. It was much the same story in Mumbai as Indian stocks declined on the prospect of continued high oil prices. The BSE-Sensex tumbled almost 2% closing at 18,174 while the Nifty ended the week at 5445. This outcome was not wholly unexpected as I noted the likelihood of declines on Monday's Sun-Saturn aspect and at the end of the week. Most global markets fell on Monday and again towards the end of the week. I also corrected noted the probability of gains in the midweek period around the Mercury-Uranus conjunction. I thought we might see a little more offsetting upside on this conjunction that we got, but Tuesday and Wednesday were nonetheless mostly higher across the board. Of course, my medium term expectations were pretty bearish here in any event as we approach the Jupiter-Saturn opposition on March 28-29.

It's interesting to see how the discussion about inflation has evolved in recent weeks. Back when Jupiter (optimism, expansion) was in fairly close conjunction with Uranus (risk, change), we saw rising inflation in the emerging economies like India and China but the potential downside risks seemed fairly minimal as growth was expected to continued at a brisk clip. That optimism began to waver after the exact conjunction in early January as India's market began to decline in earnest. Clearly, more investors were realizing that inflation could be a big problem that could hamper growth in the future. But US and European markets continued to climb as inflation was less of a problem in those recession-ravaged economies. It was only with the ongoing Middle East crisis and the spike in the price of oil that inflation became a concern in developed countries. This was a reflection of the weakening of Jupiter's optimism as it began to separate from risk-seeking Uranus and approach cautious and pessimistic Saturn. The notion of good, or at least, benign inflation is now being replaced by bad inflation. Now that Jupiter is moving close to Saturn's aspect, worries about growth are increasing, the Eurozone debt problem is back on the table and the glass is very much half-empty. In other words, Jupiter's rosy outlook is getting schooled by Saturn's sobriety. This is a similar planetary set up to May 2010 when the last Jupiter-Saturn opposition coincided quite closely with the stock market correction and the Flash Crash.

This week features a high number of aspects, both bullish and bearish. Monday begins with the key Mars aspect to Saturn. This is a full strength 8th house or quincunx aspect that definitely has the potential to pack a punch, especially in India. In this instance, however, Venus will also be part of this three-planet alignment, so that may moderate some of the difficulties here. Nonetheless, I would be surprised to see anything other than a decline on Monday. US markets may fare somewhat better, if only because the aspect is exact at the open and will begin to weaken thereafter. The midweek period looks more positive as Mercury conjoins Jupiter on Tuesday and Wednesday. Both of these planets are considered bullish influences, so their combination here is likely to produce some significant upward thrust. Even here though the presence of Saturn's aspect suggests a potential mitigation of the inherent positive energy of Mercury-Jupiter. The late week period looks more negative again as Mercury lines up exactly opposite Saturn on Friday. Mercury-Saturn aspects usually correspond with pessimism and disappointing economic news so it is quite possible that any midweek gains may come under threat.

Stocks rise with Venus; Mercury-Uranus this week

US Stocks were mostly unchanged last week as the market digested the implications of the February jobs report against a backdrop of an emerging civil war in Libya. Although the Dow did enjoy some midweek gains, Friday's selloff left it only marginally higher than last week at 12,169 while the S&P500 finished at 1321. Indian stocks fared much better rising 4% as the balanced approach of the latest Union Budget was warmly received. The Sensex closed at 18,840 while the Nifty ended the week at 5538. Gold and oil continued to benefit from the Libya crisis as gold made new highs over $1420 and oil ended the week over $100 for the first time since 2008.

In last week's post, I had suggested that the early week Venus-Uranus-Neptune aspect would likely tilt the market towards the bulls, especially in India. This was certainly the case in Mumbai as Monday was higher and then Tuesday saw the Sensex soar 600 points. US markets were less reactive to this Venus influence although stocks did rise on Monday. Tuesday's selloff in New York anticipated the bearish midweek Mercury-Saturn aspect. I had also suggested that the late week period would generally be weaker on Friday's New Moon. While India was merely flat on Friday, US markets sold off fairly significantly as the over-hyped jobs report disappointed many investors.

As I have noted previously, the current geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East is an appropriate reflection of the Rahu-Uranus square aspect that became exact as the end of last week. This volatile pairing of Rahu (greed, deception) and Uranus (change, freedom) has been drawing closer to its exact aspect over the past few weeks. This is perhaps one astrological factor behind the recent instability in financial markets and the soaring price of oil. But now that the aspect will begin to separate, we should look for a possible shift in this dynamic. Of course, the weakening of this Rahu-Uranus aspect does not necessarily mean that we can quickly move back to the status quo ante. Rather, it seems more likely that markets will move into a new phase. The initial shock phase is therefore likely winding down and we may be entering the next period of adjustment.

I continue to underline the importance of the approaching Jupiter-Saturn opposition on March 28-29. As in economics perhaps, there are no guarantees in astrology. Where human behaviour is the object of analysis, there can only be probabilities in the best of times. And yet we know that the interaction of these two giants of the solar system often brings about significant market moves. Sometimes these aspects correspond with approximate low points, as happened in May 2010 after the Flash Crash. In other situations, it may correspond with a trend reversal lower as Saturn's pessimism finally asserts itself over the enthusiastic entreaties of Jupiter. And still other situations will see very few immediate effects. In most cases, however, this coming together of positive and negative influences has major implications for human psychology and hence for stock prices.

While we move one step closer to the Jupiter-Saturn opposition -- now just separated by 6 degrees -- there is the prospect for more gains on the midweek conjunction of Mercury and Uranus.
Mercury (trading, commerce) and Uranus (risk, speed) are usually a bullish combination, especially in the day or two leading up to the conjunction. On this occasion, there is likely to be an increase in urgency and perhaps volatility also due to the co-presence of the Rahu aspect. While the week could well begin bearishly (perhaps more likely in India), the midweek period could well see stocks more higher. The late week period would seem to be less positive for stocks, even if this translates into further gains for oil and gold.