Stocks slide on Mercury retrograde; Venus enters Libra this week

Financial markets continued to look shaky last week as poor US housing data provided more evidence that the recovery may have stalled. Despite Friday's post-Bernanke rally, the Dow nonetheless closed down for the week at 10,150 while the S&P500 finished at 1064. Indian markets finally broke their winning streak and moved lower by more than 2% as the Sensex ended Friday's session at 17,998 with the Nifty closing at 5408. This latest weakness in the markets was perhaps a reflection of the Mercury retrograde cycle that began on August 20. Last week, I suggested that Mercury retrograde periods can be an added burden on sentiment which is often incompatible with higher prices. In addition, there were several difficult planetary combinations that would tend increase anxiety and take stocks lower. Interestingly, I had specified Thursday as a possible down day since there were two pairings that did not look favourable that day -- Mercury-Mars and Sun-Saturn. Thursday was lower in Europe and the US but India actually put in a positive performance. This is a reminder that there is always a margin of error in astrology, especially when dealing with global markets separated by many time zones. Sure enough, the Indian market then experienced a stronger selloff one day later on Friday while the US market rebounded after Bernanke's 10 a.m. promise to prevent deflation by any means necessary.

Like most complex knowledge systems, one of astrology's greatest challenges lies in trying to combine a high number of variables into one coherent picture. Nine planets, twelve signs, a dozen different aspects, 27 nakshatras, and so on -- that makes for millions of potential outcomes. And to make matters that much more intricate, there is comparatively little empirical evidence for the likely effects of each of these factors, much less what may happen when they occur simultaneously. This means a lot of astrological forecasting has to rely on deductive thinking from untested assumptions and theories about the potential effects of various planets and their interactions. Given this epistemological minefield, probabilistic thinking is a best case scenario and even that limited approach may come up short more often than we would care to admit.

The current situation is perhaps typical of many planetary setups that can best be described as "mixed". On one hand, the Mercury retrograde period extends to September 12 and may correlate with negative sentiment and repeating what has already been encountered i.e. retracing previous trends whether up or down, but often down. But Jupiter is fast approaching its conjunction with Uranus (exact September 18) and these two planets ought to increase risk taking and optimism for investment. Perhaps the result may be short term moves in both directions that ends in a sideways market.

This week we will get the effects of the second week of Mercury retrograde while Venus enters sidereal Libra on Wednesday. Venus tends to do better in the sign of Libra so we may see a greater focus on spending and the enjoyment of money. From a purely deductive perspective, this should be seen a positive factor for stocks, although it is only one out of many factors. By Friday, the Sun will conjoin Mercury while in close aspect with shadowy Rahu. This is an unusual combination of planets that suggests greater uncertainty and increases the potential for major moves. Rahu (North Lunar Node) is considered a malefic planet by nature, although it can sometimes have the opposite effect when circumstances support it. Given the close proximity of Mars to Venus, and the various Saturn aspects that are still in play, we may not have enough favourable energies to entice a positive result from Rahu. We shall see.


"It is vain to do with more what can be done with fewer." -- William of Occam

US Stocks fall on Venus-Mars; Mercury retrograde begins

US Stocks trended lower last week as more bad jobs numbers suggested the recovery was more talk than reality. The Dow fell about 1% for the week and closed at 10,213 while the S&P500 finished at 1071. As has been the case recently, Indian stocks were able to sidestep most of the trouble as the Sensex closed at two-year highs at 18,401 with the Nifty ended the week at 5530. Considering how many bad planets were in play last week, this outcome actually wasn't too negative. I thought Monday's Mars-Rahu aspect might correspond with more selling but Asia was only down modestly and New York recovered after the open. The midweek gains appeared to fit neatly with the Venus-Rahu aspect as Rahu's devil-may-care attitude loosened the purse strings for Venus. As expected, sentiment turned sour by the end of the week as impressionable Venus kept the bad company of Mars. US and European markets fell sharply after Wednesday while India confined its bearishness to Friday only, the day of the exact Venus-Mars conjunction.

Mercury turned retrograde on Friday afternoon and this is yet a potentially disruptive element to the already dense planetary picture. Mercury's retrograde cycle will last from August 20 to September 12. As the planet of commerce and trading, Mercury naturally figures prominently in financial astrology. When it is afflicted by Saturn, stocks generally fall. When it is in aspect with benefics like Jupiter and Venus, stocks usually rise. When it changes its direction and begins to move backward from our perspective on Earth, sentiment often undergoes a shift. This is perhaps less reliable as an indicator of market direction and is better understood as a background influence. Astrological lore says that new business is best avoided during Mercury's retrograde periods, since its outcome will often be unexpected and unwanted. That is why astrologers usually recommend going back over old business to tie up any loose ends, or review already existing work. It's generally sensible advice in any event, but in market terms it can sometimes mean that the market will go over or "retrace" over previous territory. For example, if the market has been rising, then it may go lower in order to revisit its previous levels. In my experience, Mercury retrograde cycles are much less reliable than aspects for predicting outcomes. That said, we ignore Mercury's condition at our peril since it is such a crucial planet for business and commerce. And I would note that the previous correction during April and May corresponded fairly well to the Mercury retrograde cycle of April 18 - May 12. Again, nothing is ever perfect in astrology (or in life for that matter), but there does seem to be something there worth paying attention to.

So the retrograde Mercury cycle adds another burden to the markets this week. The Sun forms a minor aspect with Mars on Monday that could generate an unproductive level of energy that could be too much for the market. Some positive aspects are available going into midweek, however, so short-lived gains may still occur. The Sun aspects Jupiter on Tuesday, as does Mercury and Venus. These could well carry over into Wednesday. Later in the week, the picture appears to darken as Mercury teams up with irascible Mars (esp Thurs) while the Sun tries to make nice with pessimistic Saturn.

"A jug fills drop by drop." -- Buddha

Dow slides with weak Venus; Jupiter-Saturn this week

Stocks slumped on most world markets last week amidst growing fears of a double dip recession in the US. The Dow broke below key technical support levels to close more than 3% lower at 10,303 and the S&P ended the week at 1079. Indian stocks resisted the down trend as the Sensex closed slightly higher for the week at 18,167 with the Nifty at 5452. This negative turn certainly comes as no surprise as I had noted the weakened condition of Venus in Virgo caught between a rock and hard place, aka the malefics Mars and Saturn. Fed Chair Ben Bernanke also dutifully played out his cosmic role as he announced further stimulus measures to kick start the sagging economy. The early week alignment between Venus, Jupiter and Pluto signaled some kind of need for increased spending, regardless of the consequences. Indeed, Monday's gains more or less corresponded with the Venus-Jupiter aspect while things began to unravel shortly after the aspect had passed.

So it seems that there are growing signs that the current skein of planetary aspects may finally be exerting some effects here. There is a sense that the economy isn't right and is not on the path to recovery anytime soon. More observers are noting the inability or unwillingness for government to address economic problems head-on. Europe's problems also appear poised to return to the front burner here as bond yields are once again rising for peripheral countries such as Greece and Spain. This is an indication that sovereign debt loads may becoming too large for most market participants to accept.

This week continues the parade of potentially notable aspects. Saturn exactly opposes Jupiter on Monday. This confrontational meeting between the celestial bearers of optimism and pessimism often corresponds to significant market moves. The last time they were in aspect in May, the market was in a serious down trend. Of course, the usual caveats apply. Like economics, astrology lacks infallible axiomatic knowledge and instead takes note of probabilities and tendencies, both empirical and symbolic. So what we do know is that Jupiter-Saturn aspects is an energy that does not necessarily favor expansion or risk taking. The early week period has the added feature of a tight square aspect between Mars and Rahu (North Lunar Node) that often represents a sudden or powerful release of force or energy. When it occurs alongside other tense patterns, it is often associated with negative situations and suggests higher volatility and sudden moves. Later in the week, Venus will finally catch up to Mars as they will conjoin near Friday's close of trading in New York A strong Venus often coincides with buying and gains, but when it comes in contact with malefics like Mars, its harmonious nature is compromised. Since Venus is already in a weakened state due to its transit of Virgo, this seems to be another negative astrological input.

"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." -- Niels Bohr

Lingering Jupiter-Pluto holds up stocks; Venus keeping bad company this week

Neither Mars nor Saturn could stop the melt up last week as stocks extended their rally on more better-than-bad economic data. In New York, stocks climbed another 2% with the Dow closing at 10,653 and the S&P at 1121. In Mumbai, the Sensex again traded near its highs for the year, closing at 18,143 as the Nifty finished the week at 5439. Despite the plethora of apparently troublesome aspects in the sky, financial markets are holding there own here. In the past two weeks, we've seen the often negative influences of Saturn-Uranus and Mars-Saturn come and go with barely any reaction from the markets. Does this negate the notion of any major financial problems from this rare alignment of outer planets? Or more to the point, should we simply dispense with all this astrology nonsense altogether and get with the program?

While I'm hopelessly biased, I would say "no" to both suggestions. Last week, I suggested that the bullish effects of Jupiter may be tested this week given the Mars-Saturn conjunction and the entry of Venus into sidereal Virgo. While Jupiter is separating from its positive aspect with Pluto and hence losing energy, this is a slow process since the separation is taking place at a rate of just one arc minute per day. Clearly, there is still a fair bit of Jupiter's optimism lingering here. And there is another complicating factor. This huge traffic jam of planets has blurred the immediate effects of individual planets and aspects. The Mars-Saturn-Uranus alignment on July 31 might typically generate more instability and fear but in the present circumstance, Jupiter is just a few degrees away from Uranus. Since it is a calming and edifying influence, Jupiter's close proximity may have delayed or transformed some of the the nastiness contained in the various Saturn aspects. In this case, I wonder if we will have to wait for Jupiter's opposition aspect with Saturn on August 16 to see just what kind of karma this unusual and monumental alignment is packing.

While the entry of Venus in sidereal Virgo did not spell any trouble early in the week, the midweek Mars-Jupiter aspect did correspond fairly closely with continued enthusiasm for stocks. Dips were bought, and prices generally stayed firm through Wednesday. The later week action also seemed to find a celestial correlate as the more bearish Mercury-Rahu aspect may have produced some modest declines in both New York and Mumbai.

This week we will see Venus aspect Jupiter-Pluto on Monday and into Tuesday. Any transits to this powerful Jupiter-Pluto aspect have closely coincided with gains so that seems a likely outcome here. It's especially interesting that this aspect will roughly concide with the FOMC meeting on Tuesday where Fed Chair Ben Bernanke will update his assessment of the US economy. There is some speculation that he might announce new stimulus measures to jump start a flagging recovery. This combination of planets would tend to support that notion since together they symbolize spending and expansionary thinking. On a more cautionary note, however, Venus will be further weakened this week. Not only is it debilitated in its transit of Virgo, but now it will be "hemmed in" between malefics Mars and Saturn. This makes it that much more unable to deliver its positive blessings. Later in the week, Venus will move very close to Mars, just as Mars forms an aspect with Rahu. This is an unfortunate combination of planets that will upset confidence and reduce comfort levels with the status quo. Neither contact is exact until next week, but this may not be the best time to split hairs.

"Doubt grows with knowledge." -- Johann Wolfgang von Goethe