Mars extends correction; Mercury conjoins Rahu

Stocks continued their losing ways last week as worries over China's tightening credit and a possible debt default by Greece cast a shadow over the market. Despite the successful reappointment of Fed Chair Ben Bernanke, US stocks lost 2% as the Dow closed at 10,067 and the S&P at 1073. It was a similar story in Mumbai, as the RBI warned of inflation down the road and stocks fell 3% as the Sensex closed at 16,357 and the Nifty at 4882. This negative outcome was in keeping with expectations given the plethora of Mars aspects last week. Most of the bearish sentiment in the US occurred towards the end of the week on the Sun-Mars opposition whereas Indian markets experienced its deepest decline on Wednesday on the Venus-Mars opposition. One possible explanation for the slightly different timing around the Mars energy could be that the Venus-Mars aspect also coincided with a specific affliction in NSE natal chart. As always, transit afflictions need to be interpreted through the template of relevant natal positions.

This week will feature a Mercury-Rahu conjunction on Wednesday and a very close alignment of Jupiter with Saturn and Pluto on Friday. Rahu (North Lunar Node) is normally seen as a malefic and unpredictable planet, and its conjunction with Mercury, the planet of commerce, suggests volatility and excessive speculation. We should not be surprised to see uncertainty about global financial markets to persist leading into the Wednesday conjunction, so that may well increase the likelihood for down days early on. Jupiter's influence on the Saturn-Pluto square later in the week will be an intriguing blending of optimism and pessimism. Generally speaking, Jupiter's influence is a positive one, even on planets that may symbolize difficulty or contraction.

The current corrective phase in the markets has coincided with the near-simultaneous reversal in direction of Mercury (forwards) and Saturn (backwards) that occurred in mid-January. As if to give these reversals added oomph, the Solar Eclipse of January 15 may have punctuated their importance in marking a shift in sentiment. Of course, we may also note the potential role of other planetary measurements. While stocks continued to rise around the time of the Mars retrograde station on December 19, the fact that Mars is still moving backwards in the sky is nonetheless significant. Mars retrograde periods have a historical correlation with negative price trends in the market, so this should give investors added caution for the duration of its period of retrograde motion which concludes March 10.

Mars aspects dominate this week

Storm clouds gathered over the financial markets last week as China tightened lending rules and Obama's new banking plan put things in a new light. Much of the new reality in the US was brought about by the upset victory of Republican Scott Brown in the special Massachusetts Senate election. This has meant a loss of the Democrats 60 seat supermajority and has forced Obama to adopt a more populist anti-Wall St stance. The new-found Republican confidence will also likely mean increase concerns over the growing government deficit and will therefore diminish any future stimulus measures. The new political reality in Washington has also jeopardized the confirmation of Fed Chair Ben Bernanke for a second term as more senators are reluctant to be seen to be too close to Wall St in a mid-term election year. The net effect was negative on stocks as investors wondered if the days of easy government bailout money was now over.

The Dow closed down 4% on the week to 10,172 while the S&P closed at 1091. The story was similar in Mumbai as the Sensex backed off its recent highs to close at 16,859 with the Nifty finishing at 5036. While I did not foresee the extent of the decline I correctly noted last week that we could see new highs put in early in the week on Jupiter's influence. I also warned about growing pessimism later in the week on the Venus and Sun aspects to Saturn. Since Saturn is a planet of caution and limitation is seems that these aspects have played an important role in the losses.

This week may well extend the dark mood as Mars forms a series of aspects through the week with Mercury, Venus and the Sun. Given the proximity of the aspects, declines could occur on any day this week. Gold is also likely to come under further pressure since both Venus and the Sun, two planets that symbolize gold, will come under the malefic aspect of the debilitated Mars in sidereal Cancer. Despite the heavy Mars influence, we should still see some up days this week. But the overall tone of the market will likely reflect the sense of Mars -- urgency, quick action, agitation and possibly more fear.

Last week's sell-off and the prospect of all those Mars aspects this week increases the chances that we saw an important top in the market with the Solar Eclipse and twin reverses of Saturn and Mercury on Jan 13-15. Whether or not it can stand up as high water mark in the medium term will depend on how low the market corrects in the coming weeks. With Mars staying retrograde until March 10, there is some reason to remain cautious here. And we will also have to integrate the effect of Jupiter aspecting both Saturn and Pluto in the first week of February. This is a very close three planet alignment that could provide additional input into sentiment.

Jupiter, and then Saturn

Stocks mostly treaded water last week as mixed earnings reports did not provide a sufficient push in either direction. In New York, the Dow closed at 10,609 while the S&P finished Friday at 1136. It was much the same story in Mumbai as investors were reluctant to extend the rally further. The Sensex ended the week at 17,554 and the Nifty at 5252. It seems we had something of a celestial saw-off, as the series of apparently positive aspects involving the Sun and Venus with slower moving planets was offset by the stations of Saturn and Mercury and Friday's disruptive solar eclipse. While I had been agnostic about the overall outcome here, I was a little disappointed by the relatively small moves on most days, with Friday being a significant exception as the New York market declined. The loss was in keeping with the general tone of a Mercury Direct station conjunct Pluto square Saturn. This definitely qualified as a "not very nice" combination, especially when you factor in the simultaneous solar eclipse. Whether these changes in planetary directions may mark a top to the market remains to be seen. Certainly, the market did not advance after Wednesday's Saturn station, but it's early days so we will have to wait and see.

This week again offers broadly offsetting influences. The early week seems to be dominated by the double aspecting of Jupiter by the Sun and Venus. Whenever Jupiter is involved, we can expect optimism and expansion to be more prominent. These are only minor 30 degree aspects so we may not see much in the way of upward lift here. But is there enough planetary fuel for stocks to rise to new highs? Hard to say, but if it going to happen, it will likely happen by Wednesday. That's because later in the week Saturn looks to be more the focus as Venus will form a trine aspect on Thursday and the Sun will follow suit on Friday. Saturn inclines towards caution and pessimism, so it is often correlated with declines.

Gold made another rally attempt last week but failed to go anywhere. As I expected, Gold was a little higher on Monday's Sun-Venus-Rahu conjunction but sellers moved in after that. Interestingly, prices started to slump as soon as Venus began separating from the Sun. Since the Sun is generally viewed as the planetary significator for gold, the gradual loss of the favourable influence of Venus coincided with falling prices. Not even some positive aspects with Uranus and Neptune were enough to put gold back into the plus column. This week could see another day or two of good gains on the Sun-Jupiter aspect but gold has lost an important planetary ally now that Venus has moved on so it's unclear how much of a rebound it can have this week.

Saturn Rx, Mercury D near solar eclipse

Stocks started 2010 on a positive note as encouraging US retail numbers brought in new buyers eager to participate in the economic recovery. In New York, the Dow was up 2% to 10,618 while the S&P fared somewhat better and closed at 1144. In Mumbai, the enthusiasm was a little more subdued as valuation worries kept a lid on things with the Sensex edging higher to 17,540 and the Nifty to 5244. Certainly, I had expected some upside from the close Sun-Mercury-Venus conjunction in the early going since Venus usually brings some element of joy to the proceedings. But the extent of Monday's gain in New York was definitely food for thought as the positive Venus energy manifested before its exact conjunction. Another reminder perhaps that no matter how precise we can do the mathematics in planetary geometry, there are always other unknown and largely unknowable "X" factors that are part of the equation that make forecasting such a challenge. I wonder if Donald Rumsfeld ever pondered astrology's "unknown unknowns". The latter part of the week saw a little more negativity and this correlated fairly well with the minor Mars aspect to the Sun and Venus. Overall, last week's extension of the rally showed how little the medium term influences have changed. The recent Mars and Mercury retrogrades have not provided enough counterbalance to the pervasive optimism of the rough alignment of Jupiter, Neptune, Uranus (and Chiron) near the same degree of their respective signs. Jupiter is now moving away from Neptune so this should eventually weaken the bullish pattern, but it is not clear when the supports will fall away.

This week will be an interesting test of that status quo optimism as we will see two planets change direction very close to a solar eclipse. With the Sun now conjunct Venus, we can see how this can produce a happy mood which could correlate with rising prices. On Monday, however, the Sun-Venus tandem will conjoin Rahu (North Lunar Node) at 27 degrees of sidereal Sagittarius. Rahu can be a disruptive influence although if it is in proximity to benefic planets like Venus, it can often be swayed to go over the bright side of life. Sun-Venus will also form supporting aspects to Uranus and Neptune early this week so that is another positive influence. Since gold is represented by the Sun, the ongoing conjunction of Venus will likely take gold prices higher in the short term. Once Venus begins to pull away, however, gold's fortunes may become more uncertain.

Saturn will turn retrograde on Wednesday and begin its five-month backward journey through early sidereal Virgo. When planets change direction, there can be a subtle shift in mood and purpose so these retrograde stations need to be watched carefully for clues of new market trends. If the market has been rising going up leading into a significant retrograde station, then stocks may be more vulnerable to pullbacks afterwards. While there is a certain deductive and holistic appeal to this position, it's important to remember that the correlation is very loose in practice. Like most probabilistic astrological measurements, it is only one factor out of many. What makes this Saturn station more noteworthy, however, is that it occurs just as the Moon, Mercury and Pluto are all in tense square aspect. This is an unusual circumstance and may well indicate some sudden increase in pessimism or misapplication of authority in some area. Friday is no less interesting as Mercury ends its retrograde cycle in square aspect with Saturn on the same day as a solar eclipse. That is also quite an unusual circumstance and warrants close attention in terms of potentially marking any changes in market direction. All in all, it should be a very compelling week as several positive aspects are tightly intermingled with a couple not-very-nice patterns.

2010 begins with Sun-Mercury-Venus conjunction

As if to underscore the resuscitation of the global economy in 2009, stocks hit their highs for the year last week in advance of the New Year's holiday. In New York, the Dow finally settled off its highs Thursday at 10,428 while the S&P closed at 1115. In Mumbai, equities were up over 80% for the year as the Sensex finished the year at 17,464 while the Nifty closed at 5201. The strength of the market through the second half of December presents a real puzzle, as the number of bearish influences appeared to be growing while the bullish influences were on the wane. In addition to the Mars retrograde cycle which began on Dec 20, Mercury also turned retrograde on Dec 26. Neither of these is usually considered favourable for stocks, although it should be noted that their direct temporal effects are more amorphous than, say, a planetary aspect. The Venus-Saturn-Pluto alignment on Dec 28-29 corresponded with continued strength, although future events may reveal this pattern as pivotal moment where trends were reversed, rather than anything especially bullish. Lurking in the background, the afterglow of the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction, now two degrees past exactitude and still apparently fueling the optimism of prevailing market sentiment.

The extended conjunction between Jupiter, the planet of expansion and wealth, and Neptune, the planet of idealism and dreams, has been a key part of the economic recovery this year. Back in late 2008 near the depths of the meltdown, I expected this conjunction to boost the market through much of 2009 and thought that Dow 10,000 would be a possible target. While that target has been achieved, I have to honestly say that I never expected the stock rally to last this long. Between the Saturn-Uranus opposition in September and November's Saturn-Pluto I thought we would see markets subject to greater stress. This hasn't happened as corrections have been relatively mild due in part to the lengthy contact between Jupiter and Neptune, with a close 30 degree aspect from Uranus lending a helping hand.

2010 begins with a close triple conjunction of Sun, Mercury and Venus early in the week. Sun-Mercury conjoin first on Monday with Mercury and Venus coming together on Tuesday. As the planet of commerce and trading, the condition of Mercury is of particular interest. Its inferior conjunction with the Sun is often difficult as close proximity leads to the affliction known as combustion. By contrast, the Venus influence is often positive, as harmonious feelings are more likely to pervade commercial transactions. Later in the week the Sun and Venus form a minor aspect with retrograde Mars. Contacts with a debilitated and retrograde malefic such as Mars are often problematic and this aspect may coincide with sudden events or a sense of urgency. At the same time, the aspect is not a full strength one, so that would tend to mitigate its effects. While the net effect of these short term aspects may well be negative, what is more important is how they will interact with some of the patterns that occur next week. On the 13th, Saturn turns retrograde in close aspect to President Obama's natal Moon (housing market issues?). Then just two days later, Mercury's direct station occurs on the same day as a annular Solar Eclipse at 1 degree of sidereal Capricorn.

January offers more difficult planetary energies that should put pressure on stocks over the near term, but the planetary aspects generally look more difficult later in the year. April and May will see a very awkward looking Saturn-Uranus-Neptune pattern that will likely prove inimical to further gains. Then the Saturn-Uranus-Pluto t-square will dominate the summer and fall period. This unholy trinity of slow moving bodies is evocative of a state of pessimism and hardship. Although Jupiter will be a frequent visitor in this t-square configuration, it's unclear if its optimism will be enough to induce prices to move higher. Overall, 2010 seems destined to undermine many of the economic gains that were achieved in 2009.