Week of April 27 - May 1

Stocks in New York finished mostly unchanged last week as the rally showed signs of weakening. After trading as low as 7800 on Tuesday morning, the Dow bounced back and closed Friday at 8076 while the S&P ended at 866. The story was much the same in India, as the bulls returned late week to push the market higher by 3% as the Sensex closed at 11,329 and the Nifty at 3480. This outcome was not unexpected as the apparently bearish Mars-Venus conjunction early in the week did push down prices. The late week comeback was also more or less foretold in the Mercury-Jupiter aspect and later, the Mercury-Uranus aspect.

The planets this week looks similarly mixed. Mars comes under the aspect of Ketu on Monday and Tuesday and with Pluto thrown into the mix, it is hard to see much upside there. Alignments of three malefic planets have the potential to create a mood of frustration and irritation which could encourage a more bearish stance. The mood may shift rather quickly, however, when Venus replaces Mars in that alignment by Thursday and Friday. Pluto and Ketu are still malefics and therefore should be treated carefully, but Venus has the power to transform their energies into something positive. Also Jupiter enters sidereal Aquarius Thursday, so that is another potentially positive energy, particularly for the technology sector since it is governed by Aquarius. So I would not be surprised to see a significant bounce later on. Gold may also stand to gain in the next week or two here. Indian markets are closed for Thursday and Friday, so they may miss out on some of this benefic Venusian energy.

As we approach the Mercury retrograde cycle which starts May 6, markets seem vulnerable to pullbacks. The planetary situation is complicated by the existence of opposite energies. The Jupiter-Uranus-Neptune alignment is very positive, and even more so if we want to throw Chiron into the mix which is also conjunct Jupiter and Neptune in early sidereal Aquarius. Much of this recent rally can be traced back to the formation of this very tight configuration of planets. It is so positive that its energy started flowing much earlier than I expected. I thought it might begin to drive up prices in April as Jupiter came to within 5 degrees of Neptune, but the rally began in mid-March when Jupiter was still 10 degrees away.

But on the other side, we have some more negative influences. The most immediate is Mercury turning retrograde in aspect with Rahu. This retrograde cycle lasts until May 31 and is often (but not always) correlated with sideways or negative trends since Rahu introduces irrationality into the thinking process as symbolized by Mercury. Second, Pluto forms a harmonic aspect with the nodes, Rahu and Ketu which will last for two to three weeks. This can be problematic for any large scale organizations such as corporations which are represented by Pluto. The nodal influence can signify uncertainty, transgressions, and imbalance and could coincide with a public skepticism towards large scale enterprises. Third, Saturn stations on May 16 as it returns to direct motion after spending the past five months in its retrograde cycle.

By themselves, Saturn stations may not incline the market one way or the other, although they can often mark changes in trend. For example, when Saturn turned retrograde on December 31, 2008, the fledgling market rally peaked just a few days later and began its long slide down to the March lows. The previous Saturn direct station on May 3, 2008 coincided with an interim market top as prices peaked days after and then began to fall in earnest by late May. This doesn't mean that I think the market is going to start to fall precipitously after May 16. Far from it. But as a malefic planet, Saturn has the ability to inject a lot of fear and pessimism into all situations. For this reason, the time window around this station is unlikely to pass without some bearish consequence.

Banking fears sink stocks

After being up most of the day, stocks in New York fell sharply at the close as renewed fears over the banks took hold. The Dow ended the day at 7886 while the S&P closed at 843 after trading as high as 860 at midday. Meanwhile Indian stocks slumped for the third day in a row as the Nifty closed at 3330 and the Sensex at 10,817.

The expected early week Mars to Venus bearishness has largely come to pass, although I would have expected a little more strength today. Even if tomorrow sees some recovery in New York on the vestiges of the Mercury-Jupiter aspect, I think the outlook isn't very positive as we move into Monday's Mars-Ketu-Pluto alignment.

Stocks continue ascent

The bulls refused to let go of the reigns of the market last week as stocks added another 1-2%. After some early week selling, New Yorks stocks rebounded with the Dow closing Friday at 8131 and the S&P at 869. In Mumbai, stocks rallied up to their 200 day moving average Wednesday, before falling back a bit by Friday's close. The Nifty ended the week at 3384 and the Sensex at an impressive 11,023. The undercurrent of bullish sentiment on the approaching Jupiter-Neptune conjunction continues to offset most other potentially negative astrological factors. US markets fell early in the week ahead of the Mars-Uranus conjunction, but this decline was less than expected. The return of buyers coincided with a fairly innocuous looking Sun-Neptune aspect.

The bears may well rule the early part of this week as Mars approaches Venus on Monday and Tuesday. The Moon transits Aquarius opposite Saturn on those days, so that may increase levels of caution. Wednesday features a Mercury-Jupiter square aspect while the Moon enters Pisces to join Venus and Mars. This looks like a significant infusion of energy that could well stimulate buyers. Friday will see Mercury in aspect with Uranus so that may provide additional stimulation for the bulls. With Jupiter, Uranus, and Neptune all in close harmonic proximity, it may be difficult for this market to fall too far right here. I think the market may get choppier here, with larger declines possible but likely still followed by roughly offsetting gains. Still, I note that a number of the relevant natal charts show some fundamental afflictions by slow moving malefics such as Saturn and the nodes, so their bearishness should begin to bite very soon.

This Friday is the Aries New Moon and features a close square aspect between the Sun-Moon conjunction and Rahu and Ketu. This would suggest a rise in nervousness and undermining of confidence over the next four weeks. Mercury, the planet of trading, is in close square aspect with Jupiter-Neptune which again is not indicative of significant gains. It needn't translate into losses, but given the nodal influence on the luminaries, the New Moon chart does not support the notion that this rally can be extended much further. And when we mix in the prospect of the Mercury retrograde period starting on May 6, the planets seem to be pointing to weaker markets in the near term.

The dollar should continue to strengthen this week, as oil and gold may slide back further.

Bulls on parade; Mars-Uranus conjunction threatens

Stocks racked up more gains last week as the positive profit outlook from Wells Fargo on Thursday brought the bulls out in force yet again. The Dow closed at 8083, up less than 1% overall while the SPX finished the week at 856. Indian markets fared somewhat better over the three-day trading week and were up 3% as the Nifty closed at 3342 and the Sensex at 10,803. While I had expected more downside from the Mars-Saturn opposition, at least there was some pullback early on in the week in the US when this aspect was closest. Also the bearish Uranus ingress into sidereal Pisces did correspond with the decline below Dow 7800. The late week gain was also not too surprising given the favourable alignment of Sun-Mars-Jupiter, but I had not expected its positive effects to offset the negative patterns earlier in the week. Assessing amplitude is one of the more difficult aspects of financial astrology, after one has decided whether a particular configuration is either positive or negative.
While the bulls are on parade here and have clearly gained the upper hand in this market, I still think there is some remaining negative energy from the Uranus ingress. History tells us that Uranus' ingresses do not always translate into big declines, of course, but in instance I wonder if the release of energy might have been delayed somewhat by the approaching conjunction with Mars. Mars will conjoin Uranus in the first degree of Pisces on Wednesday. By itself, this conjunction can be a bearish pattern, and when it occurs so close to the actual ingress, it may receive an extra boost of energy. So there's still a chance for a sizable decline at some point in the week, perhaps as much as 5% on a single day. Even if the rally somehow continues early on, I think the week should be negative overall. With Venus ending its retrograde cycle on Friday, we are likely at the end of this fast rising bear market rally. It is interesting to recall that the rally began very close to the time that Venus went retrograde on March 6. Now that the cycle is ending, we will likely see the market consolidate at lower levels over the next few weeks. With Mercury turning retrograde in aspect to Rahu in early May, we may in fact see even lower prices then. Let's see how low we go here. If it's only a garden variety 3-4% correction by next Monday the 20th, then the extent of the overall decline may be more modest.

I think there is a chance for a big rally in the dollar here, with crude falling back quite a bit. Gold seems harder to read, but the Sun falling under the aspect of Saturn in the GLD natal chart suggests some late week bearishness.

Rally gets an encore

Last week stocks extended their rally into a fourth week adding another 3%. After Monday's steep sell off, the bulls returned to the trough and pushed up the Dow above 8000 closing at 8017 while the S&P finished at 842. Indian markets also rose as ended above some important resistance levels as the Nifty closed at 3211 and the Sensex at 10,348. While I was bearish for last week, I left open the possibility that the negative fallout from the Mars-Saturn aspect may well manifest this week instead. Also, I did call for weakness early on which was somewhat fulfilled in Monday's pullback. The midweek recovery was also within the boundary of my forecast given the bullishness of the Venus-Jupiter aspect.

So despite having underestimated the strength of this rally, I think a downside bias makes more sense this week. Besides, the Mars-Saturn opposition aspect, the Sun is also part of that alignment around 22-23 degrees. And as I mentioned last week, Uranus changes signs this weekend as it moves into sidereal Pisces (according to the Lahiri ayanamsha) so this may act as an amplifier for prevailing market sentiment. Uranus is the planet of sudden and explosive energy, and the sign changes often correlate with significant events and big market swings. Uranus changed signs on October 17, 1987 just two days before the world markets had their biggest single-day decline. Seven years later on February 6, 1994, Uranus changed signs again this time entering Capricorn. This occurred just two days after the markets lost between 5-8% worldwide. Of course the correlation is not perfect as there are many occasions when a Uranus ingress did not coincide with a major market move. Nonetheless, it is a potential factor to include in our analysis and given the pattern in the sky at the moment, it increases the likelihood for some kind of significant sell off. The larger symbolism of Uranus entering Pisces may also indicate some fundamental changes occurring in areas ruled by Pisces. These may reflect the return of the welfare state and more socialistic government policies given Pisces connection with compassion and caring.

Gold looks pretty bearish here, as does crude oil. I expect the dollar to resume its bounce this week.

Markets add to yesterday's gains

Wall St woke up on the right side of the bed this morning as markets rose 2% on some encouraging economic data. After a negative open, the Dow closed at 7761 and the S&P ended the session near the highs of the day at 811. Mumbai also moved back towards last week's levels as the Nifty ended at 3060 and the Sensex at 9901.

So the midweek rally I wondered about seems to have come to pass here, although bulls should note that we're still off last week's highs. Failure to move beyond those levels would be a bearish signal. I do think we're headed mostly down here in the next few sessions. In fact, given the prominence of malefics Mars and Saturn, it could be a BIG move down, possibly over 5%.

I would also point out that sidereal Uranus will enter Pisces over the weekend. Outer planet sign changes often correlate with major developments in the financial and geopolitical world. Readers will note that the largest single day decline in US stock market history in October 1987 occurred two days after sidereal Uranus changed signs. That doesn't mean we're looking at a drop of that magnitude (>20%) but it does add an extra amount of planetary energy to the mix. Since Uranus is the planet of surprises and sudden changes, expect the unexpected!