NY bounces back after Mondays near death experience

After Monday's descent into an extreme danger zone near 7100, the bulls returned looking for bargains as the Dow ended the day at 7350. The S&P also recovered from from Monday's near-death experience below the November lows at 743 and closed at 773. In Mumbai, trading followed a similar pattern as the Nifty retested the January lows at 2675 near the open before ending the day largely unchanged at 2733.

It's hard to see the market falling much more this week, as the Aquarius New Moon has now kicked in. Still the approaching Mercury-Mars-Saturn alignment next week does not look very favourable for share prices. The larger question of course concerns the fate of the market after the Venus retrograde cycle begins on March 6. Many observers feel the market is doomed for another leg down towards SPX 600/Dow 6000, while the more bullish view sees the current lows as largely holding as the market undergoes a process of consolidation before turning higher. I tend towards the latter view, although there are a few key astrological pressure points that we need to get behind us before the bullish scenario can win the day. The Jupiter-Saturn aspect of March 23 may well determine if the market can hang on here or move lower.

Forecast for week of Feb 23 - 27

Stocks in New York continued to swoon last week on the growing alarm over the government's inability to fix the banking system, as the Dow fell to its lowest level in 6 years closing at 7365. The S&P did not break below its November lows (752) however, and closed Friday at 770. Mumbai was also sharply lower last week as the major indexes fell 8%. Indian markets have fared considerably better than American markets since the original Fall decline and are still trading above their January lows. On Friday, the Sensex closed at 8843 and the Nifty at 2736. My sense that last week's five planet alignment involving malefics Mars, Rahu and Ketu was going to be problematic for the market was largely borne out by the 6-8% decline. While I was somewhat unsure what the immediate impact of this pattern might be, I thought that proximity of the Mercury-Saturn aspect later on in the week would be enough to push prices down generally. Certainly, the markets have been hit by a new wave of bearishness in the wake of the lunar eclipse of Feb 9. Eclipses are famously bearish for stocks and the recent down move has proven this notion correct yet again.

I'm more optimistic about this week, however, as the Aquarius New Moon on Tuesday looks decidedly better than the previous one in Capricorn. Given that the New Moon chart governs the next 4 weeks, this means we may well be near an interim bottom here. Mercury conjoins Jupiter on Tuesday which ought to provide some support although with Mars moving into closer quincunx aspect to Saturn on the weekend, any gains made this week are unlikely to get very far. So the week may be fairly mixed with some more selling early on with more buyers coming back by midweek. I'm not ruling out a down week, but any declines should be fairly modest.

Gold finally reached $1000 on Friday which was in keeping with expectations. Monday may be a possible high as the Mercury-Jupiter conjunction will conjoin with the natal Jupiter in the GLD chart. I'm not sure that gold has much higher to go here, although the next couple of months could conceivably go either way. The summer looks more decidedly negative as the nodes will afflict several key points in the GLD chart. Until then, it may be a tug of war between the positive effects of transiting Jupiter on the natal Venus and MC and the Saturn square to natal Mars in the Futures chart.

Markets bail on US bank bailout plan

Investors gave a collective thumbs down to the Geithner bank plan as stocks retreated 5% in New York last week with the Dow falling to 7850 and the S&P to 826. I thought markets might be more bullish, but stocks seemed to slide right after Monday 's afflicted lunar eclipse. So the US markets seemed to be in negative space with all the heavy Jupiter representation in the nakshatra sublordships. This implications of the Rahu affliction to Jupiter was left as an open question, and we saw some confirmation of that bearish hypothesis.

This week features a very rare symmetrical configuration in the sky with a triple conjunction of Mars-Rahu-Jupiter at 15 Capricorn and then Venus at 15 Pisces in exact harmonic aspect with the Capricorn conjunction and Ketu at 15 Cancer. This kind of five planet alignment has never occurred in modern times and so extrapolating market effects is somewhat more difficult than usual. Certainly there is a a mix of benefic and malefic energies that complicates the picture. Even if we see a big gain early on here, I think the bears will return in force soon enough as the market seems destined to move lower.

Mumbai markets rose 3% last week on optimism that Asian economies would respond to various stimulus packages. This was broadly in keeping with our expectations as the approaching Jupiter-Rahu conjunction created more positive sentiment in India than in the US. Part of the reason for the different outcomes of this alignment was due to the fact that Jupiter was in close harmonic aspect with the ascendant of the NSE chart, hence the more positive outcome there.

The Mars-Jupiter-Rahu-Venus-Ketu alignment early in the week may produce a big move, perhaps in reaction to the Indian budget. The overall mood seems more negative, however, so any gains here are unlikely to last long.

US stocks finish flat after steep midday plunge

US markets ended flat after after a huge final hour rally erased deep losses that saw the indexes move closer to their November lows. After trading below 7700, the Dow closed at 7932 while the SPX ended at 835 after touching 810 around 3 p.m. In Mumbai, the Sensex closed at 9465, down 1.5% on the day while the Nifty ended at 2893.

An interesting point about today's rollercoaster action: the Moon moved from Mars-ruled section of Hasta to Rahu's section in the early afternoon. Given Rahu's strength from the Jupiter conjunction, this may have been one factor that allowed sentiment to improve for the rally in the last hour. Of course, the sublord shift occurred while the market was still falling at 1 pm so we can't take this influence too far. The relief rally will likely continue tomorrow in New York, although I'm less optimistic about the Indian market.

Geithner fails to impress; New York plunges 5%

In what must be seen as a bracing, if rude, welcome for the new Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner's bank bailout plan was greeted with a huge stock sell off as the Dow lost 400 points to close at 7888 while the SPX ended near session lows at 827. The drop reversed the prevailing optimism that moved Asian markets on Tuesday as Mumbai rose modestly with the Sensex closing at 9647 and the Nifty at 2934.

I had thought we would see more upside this week, but Monday's failure to generate any new highs above SPX 870 convinced enough investors that the time to sell was nigh. A couple of planetary observations here may suffice as an explanation. First, I had wondered if the movement of several planets into Jupiter-ruled sectors of nakshatras might change the overall equation. It did change the equation, and for the worse. Even though I called for some early week upside, I knew that the Jupiter influence here was a little shaky due to Jupiter's close conjunction with malefic Rahu and its debilitated state in sidereal Capricorn.

An additional negative factor was the 135 degree aspect between Mars and Saturn. Given my discussion in the weekly forecast of the potential role of Mars as a trigger in releasing the Saturn-Uranus energy, it seems that some of that energy has now been realized. My previous hypothesis focused on Mars' full strength quincunx aspect that will become stronger towards the end of February. Certainly, the drop today suggests that some of that energy has been manifested with today's trading.

The best the bulls can hope for is probably not much more than a fairly weak technical bounce for the rest of the week. Tomorrow may well start out fairly negative as well. Asia should be quite negative also tomorrow since the Mars-Saturn aspect does not perfect until after the trading day in Mumbai. The trend continues to be down, so next week still looks worse, so we could retest the Fall 2008 lows then.

Forecast for week of Feb 9 -13

After being in the doldrums for most of the week, US markets rallied towards the end of the week on hopes for a speedy passage of the stimulus package and the bank plan and closed up 4% on the week. After trading below 7900 at the open Thursday,. the Dow closed Friday at 8280 and the SPX at 868. I had thought the Saturn-Uranus aspect might provide more down energy now, but with such slow moving planets it is sometimes harder to identify the necessary triggering planet and predict when their negative energy will be released. For example, the first exact Saturn-Uranus opposition on November 4 coincided with a rise. It is worth noting, however, that the market did fall in the days following the aspect. Also the market made a significant low the week prior on October 27. So even with some of the declines we saw in late January, I would argue that the bearishness of this aspect has yet to be fully expressed. It may require the Mars aspect in late February to bring it out and for the markets to move lower.

This week there are a few interesting patterns including a lunar eclipse on Monday which may increase trading volumes and intraday swings. The eclipse pattern seems negative given the close harmonic aspect with Saturn, but I think we may move somewhat higher this week, at least in the early going before the Sun moves into sidereal Aquarius. One thing I will be watching is the effect of Jupiter moving from Rahu's to Jupiter's portion of Shravana. Given Rahu's current conjunction with Jupiter, one could see how the market might get support from Jupiter receiving this Rahu energy. And yet now that Jupiter is transiting through its own section of the nakshatra (until Feb 15), there could be a change in attitudes towards wealth (Jupiter). It is worth noting that last week's rise came during the Sun's transit of the Rahu portion of Dhanista. The Sun will be in Jupiter's sub of Dhanista Monday and then Saturn for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Mumbai lost a bit of ground last week as the rally only arrived on Friday. After bouncing up from 2760 a couple of times earlier in the week, the Nifty ended the week at 2843 and the Sensex at 9300. Aside from the unfulfilled downside energy from the Saturn-Uranus opposition, one of the interesting features of last week's action was the abrupt shift in sentiment from Thursday to Friday. Using the Nakshatra lord and sublord paradigm, we can find several changes, any one of which might have been involved in the move from bearish to bullish. Mercury transited from the Mars to the Rahu section of Uttarashada, hence increasing the plausibly positive energy available to market participants. At the same time, Mars moved from Mercury to Ketu's portion of Uttarashada. While Ketu is nominally negative for material endeavours, Ketu does come under the favourable aspect of Jupiter now, so it may not be as bearish as it may first appear. Finally, the Sun transited from Moon-ruled Shravana to Mars-ruled Dhanista between Thursday and Friday. Shravana is a very changeable nakshtra due to the constantly shifting influences upon its ruler, the Moon. But currently Mars may be interpreted as more positive given its exaltation in Capricorn and its approaching conjunction with Jupiter and Rahu. Further study of Mars' energy may shed more light on its effects in its transit of Capricorn over the next few weeks.

This week the market seems poised to go higher as the US stimulus package moves closer to becoming law. Optimism may be overflowing this week as Jupiter finally conjoins Rahu on Friday. And yet much depends on the effect of the various planetary transits to Jupiter-controlled nakshatras. Jupiter is debilitated in Capricorn and the influence of Rahu can make for sudden changes and reversals. The late week looks more negative as transiting Mercury comes close to the malefic 8th house cusp in the Nifty natal chart.

US rally runs out of gas

Stocks closed lower today after the rally fizzled in the morning. After hitting 850, the SPX ended the day at 832 while the Dow finished at 7952. In Mumbai, the market continues to struggle higher after Monday's sell off. The Nifty closed at 2803 after trading as high as 2840 and the Sensex ended the day at 9201.

We might see some morning gains in Mumbai but generally I think the mood will grow increasingly bearish over the rest of the week as we move into the Saturn-Uranus opposition. SPX 800 may well hold on Friday, while the recent lows on the Nifty (2700) look safe for now.

Stocks slump back after rally

Stocks in New York followed a sisyphean trajectory last week as an early rally culminated in Wednesday's high only to fall back by Friday below last week's close. The Dow closed at 8000 and the SPX ended at 825. I had thought the early week could be more negative with the Mercury Rx-Mars conjunction but it seems only to have increased the energy available to market participants rather than move the market in any particular direction. Its placement in Sun-ruled Uttarashada may be shaped the outcome as the Sun is under the presumed influence of Rahu and Jupiter in Capricorn. While Rahu is disruptive by itself, its current conjunction with Jupiter can produce acquisitiveness and buying. Overall, the market was slightly negative.

This week should see continued volatility as Saturn exactly opposes Uranus on Thursday with a t-square from the Moon forming during trading hours EST . There is a potential for a short rally before then, perhaps Monday or Tuesday when Moon is in Aries while its dispositor Mars is exalted in Capricorn. Tuesday's Moon has the added positive feature of being in Venus-ruled Bharani which is also currently exalted in Pisces. By Friday, Venus will square Pluto and combined with Saturn-Uranus opens the door to a possible return down to current support levels of Dow 7900 and SPX 805. February and March are shaping up quite negatively so the only question is whether the November lows of 7400/750 will hold. I think they won't.

Mumbai bounced back last week as markets rallied 7% with the Sensex closing Friday at 9424 and the Nifty at 2874. The extent of the upside surprised me, mostly because I did not expect the early week gains on the Mercury Mars conjunction. As strong as the rally was, I don't think it changes the fundamental direction of the market down. This week should see averages somewhat lower by Friday although if the early week gains come to pass, then the overall decline could be minimal or even be flat. Monday and Tuesday will see the now forward moving Mercury in a helpful aspect with the natal Jupiter in the NSE chart. This may give some support to prices. In addition to the difficult transit patterns that will build up by late week, Mercury will be sitting on the 12th house cusp of the Sensex natal chart. On Friday, the Moon will transit Ardra, a particularly difficult nakshatra. These are bearish influences that could bring down prices sharply.

Gold extended its recent gains last week as it closed at $928. While some retracement down did occur early on, prices resumed their upward climb following the Sun-Rahu conjunction. This week may see a couple of down days as Mars aspects Ketu in the GLD chart, but gold seems likely to continue to rise at least for the duration of the Sun's transit of Capricorn until Feb 12 and perhaps several days beyond. Gold may only begin to fall significantly in March once the Venus retrograde cycle has started. (Mar 6). So even if it tops out around $1000 in the next two weeks, the Venus retrograde period will return it back below $800.