Market Forecast -- week of December 1 -5

Stocks in New York rallied over 10% last week amidst a growing sense that a solid bottom was reached the week previous at 7400. The Dow ended the holiday-shortened week at 8829 while the S&P closed at 896. The rally was largely expected although I had thought we might see more declines later in the week. As it happened, the potential negativity contained within the Moon's transit of Scorpio was offset by the approaching conjunction of benefics Venus and Jupiter.

Monday's triple conjunction of Moon-Venus-Jupiter may coincide with a big rise as the rally enters a more difficult phase. The Sun and Mars will conjoin at 20 degrees of Scorpio on Friday and this may also shift sentiment away from rehabilitated optimism to a more jittery and alarmist orientation. The coming Saturn-Neptune aspect will likely bring back a significant amount of fear and pessimism to the market. In addition, the New Moon of November 27 was quite afflicted and also suggests that December will not be kind to equities. Although the Venus-Jupiter conjunction is fairly close in that chart, Mercury is in a tighter conjunction with Mars and both are aspected by unstable Ketu. This suggests that prices will be volatile through December with sudden ups and downs. To make matters worse, the New Moon in New York features Neptune rising with Saturn in the 8th house of obstacles. This is additional evidence that the markets will see a significant move down this month, perhaps revisiting Dow 7400 or even going below it.

Indian markets made more modest gains last week as the terror attacks in Mumbai shut markets on Thursday. While I had expected higher prices in the early going, stocks ended the week fairly close to forecast levels. The Nifty ended Friday's session at 2755 while the Sensex closed at 9092. The rally will likely be extended this week as the Venus-Jupiter conjunction occurs almost exactly on the natal Uranus of the NSE chart in the 2nd house of wealth. A very rapid rise is possible so Nifty 3000 seems quite doable here. The rally is unlikely to last very long, however, Saturn is moving into a particularly dominant position in the NSE chart. As already noted, the New Moon of November 27 is not a good chart. Moreover, in Mumbai, the New Moon occurred with malefic and unpredictable Ketu rising. While Ketu can simply mean quick and sudden actions, it is also very much an anti-materialist energy that is often at odds with higher stock prices. With Mercury conjunct Mars in this chart, it presents a fairly bleak picture for stocks in December. The only question is how low will they go. I think a retest of Nifty 2525 is inevitable, and stocks will likely trade well below that level for a time.

Rally on Wall St continues

The rally continued on Wall St today as the Dow shook off a negative open and finished at 8726 while the S&P ended at 887. Asian stocks were also up by 3% as the Nifty ended at 2752 and the Sensex at 9026.

Wall St is closed for Thanksgiving Thursday but stocks globally seemed destined to pullback somewhat Thursday and into Friday. Given the shocking terrorist attacks in central Mumbai, one can't be sure if that market will even open Thursday. If it does, it will certainly move down. All in all, the rally is well under way here and will continue into next week.

US stocks rise for third straight day

Stocks in New York were modestly higher today on news of new government bailout money for the economy. The Dow again traded near 8600 today and ended at 8479 while the S&P closed at 857. Most Asian markets were higher, but India sagged towards the close and the Nifty was down over 2% to 2654 while the Sensex finished at 8695. This is the second day that markets in Mumbai failed to hold onto significant gains.

Wednesday is shaping up negatively both in India and in North America. The Nifty may even retest 2525 at some point in the next couple of days. The US is likely finished its winning streak and may probe below 8200 Wednesday.

US stocks soar on Citigroup bailout

Stocks in New York rose 6% today on news that beleaguered banking giant Citigroup would receive government assistance. The Dow closed at 8443 while the S&P ended the session at 851. The rally was more modest in Asia as the Nifty was only up 0.5% to 2708 while the Sensex was actually fractionally down at 8903.

The trend appears to be up here and tomorrow may well build on today's gains in advance of the Sun-Mercury conjunction.

Market Forecast -- week of November 24 - 28

Stocks markets worldwide continued their downward spiral last week amidst the growing sense that the recession will be a long and painful one. Despite Friday's impressive rally on the news of Timothy Geithner's appointment as Obama's Treasury Secretary, the Dow was off 5% for the week and closed at 8046 while the S&P stood at 800. On Thursday, the Dow retested its 2002 lows of 7400 while the S&P revisited lows set back in 1996. While I had expected a possible retest, I thought the markets might be content with Dow 8000 and then bounce back from there. I also mistakenly thought the low for the week would occur earlier, in advance of the perfecting of the Jupiter-Saturn aspect. As it turned out it was only the day the aspect perfected, Friday, that saw the market turnaround.

This market is clearly on its last legs of this phase of the bear market. With the passing of the Jupiter-Saturn aspect, the next major aspect is Saturn-Neptune. This is a more clearly malefic influence and will likely be felt with full force in December when those two planets are in their closest harmonic resonance. Despite the gloom that hangs over the market, however, there may well be enough time left for some modest gains over the next week or two, particularly in light of approach of the triple conjunction of benefics Moon, Venus and Jupiter on December 1. Nonetheless, the market is likely to be extremely volatile during this period so any gains are unlikely to last long and may be confined to intraday highs as skittishness will intensify as time goes on. It's possible the Dow could go to 9000 at some point here, but it's not anything one should put a large stake in. The Sun and Mercury conjoin on Tuesday so this may well have a hand in some optimistic trading patterns in the early part of the week.

Markets in Mumbai followed the rest of the world last week as Dalal Street saw losses of 6%. Thursday saw a retest of October's closing lows (2525/7700) but Friday's rally saved the day as the Nifty closed at 2693 and the Sensex at 8915. As the world slips deeper into recession, there will be no escape for Indian markets from December's decline. In the meantime some modest gains are possible this week but they will be fleeting. Even with the helpful Sun-Mercury conjunction on Tuesday, the Moon's transit of Scorpio, its sign of debilitation, late in the week may bring significant losses. High volatility in the next two weeks impose limits on any gains. From a longer term perspective, I am increasingly pessimistic about a market recovery in 2009. Rallies will occur and they may have considerable force, but they are very unlikely to return the market to levels seen in the first half of 2008. This is not a good time to own stocks for the long haul as it may be years before they return to 2008 levels.

With the ongoing turbulence last week, crude oil sold off sharply and even traded below $50. While some bounce back is possible this week, crude is headed lower into December, probably below $40. Gold rallied nicely last week to $800 and things continue to look quite positive for gold as the Sun transits Anuradha this week and into the early part of next week. I expect it to climb higher. The US dollar once again was the beneficiary of fear in the market as it rose against most currencies. The Euro managed to hold its own at 1.26, however, and it may gain a cent or two here before heading down sharply in December. The Rupee lost ground last week closing at 49.9 and is going to be on shaky ground for the next month or so and may trade in the 52 range.

US stocks rally on Geithner appointment

US stocks rallied strongly at the close on news that Timothy Geithner would be the new Treasury Secretary in the incoming Obama administration. The Dow ended the day at 8046 and the SPX closed at 800. The rally followed a similarly strong rally in Asia that saw Indian stocks rise 5% as the Nifty rose to 2693 and the Sensex at 8915.

While I expected this bounce earlier in the week, better late than never. This sets up the prospect for more gains next week.

Swimming in a sea of red

US stocks slid another 6% today to 5-year lows as the Dow closed at 7552 and the SPX at 752. Asian markets were similarly bearish as the Nifty closed down 3% to 2553 while the Sensex closed at 8451.

So is this the low for the 2008? That is the question now that the Jupiter-Saturn aspect will become exact tomorrow at 9 a.m. EST just before the open in New York. Since most energy is released in advance of major aspects, there is even more reason to believe that we are on the verge of another bear market rally. As the aspect separates during Friday's session in the US, there is a very good chance that sentiment will finally shift.

US stocks plunge 6%; Dow trades below 8000

US markets remained in retest mode today as the Dow broke the 8000 level and closed at 7997 while the SPX probed lower and closed at 806. Asian bourses started the day in the red as the Nifty sank to 2635 and the Sensex to 8773.

It was an ugly day on Wall St, and the extent of the downside was surprising. While I had expected a Dow retest, I had hoped we would have been done with it yesterday. Tomorrow is therefore the probable reversal day. Depending on how low we go at the open, the strength in the afternoon should push prices in New York significantly higher.

US stocks move higher on rally at the clse

With a strong rally at the close, US stocks moved 1% higher after venturing into retest territory in the early afternoon. The Dow finished at 8424 and the SPX at 859. Asian markets were lower as stocks in Mumbai lost 4%. The Sensex ended trading near the lows of the day at 8937 and the Nifty at 2683.

While the Dow did not quite match its October low, the SPX did and in fact almost
matched Thursday's low of 820. The rally near the close is an indication of things to come this week. There's a chance for Dow 9000 by Friday and Nifty 3000. Let's see if enough market participants believe that he have had a retest to push prices higher.

US stocks fall on Citigroup cuts

Stocks in New York fell over 2% after massive job cuts at Citigroup and news that Japan had slipped into recession. The Dow closed near its lows for the day at 8273 while the SPX ended at 850. Indian markets staged an impressive afternoon rally and only closed marginally down. The Nifty ended trading at 2799 and the Sensex finished at 9291.

So no retest in New York today but the real possibility for a lower open tomorrow. I'm doubtful we will see Dow 8000 here but it's still possible. Nifty 2700 is very likely tomorrow. After that, perhaps a lift.

Market Forecast -- week of Nov 17 - 21

Stocks slumped 5% worldwide last week on continuing fears that the recession may be deeper than first thought. Despite an impressive rally Thursday in New York following an apparent retest of Dow 8000, the market slipped back Friday as the Dow closed at 8497 and the SPX at 873. I had expected more of rally last week on the basis of the favourable Jupiter-Uranus aspect but it seems that the hangover effects of the preceding week's Saturn-Uranus opposition still carried the day.

I think markets are likely to be shaky in the early part of the week on the heels of Saturn's aspect to Mercury on Monday. I would not be surprised to see yet another retest of Dow 8000 then. Stocks are likely to improve significantly as the week progresses as Mercury joins the Sun and Mars in Scorpio. Venus' ingress into Purvashada will also be supportive of sentiment as Jupiter's aspect to Saturn perfects on Friday. Depending on how low we go early on, we could end the week at or above current levels.

In Mumbai, markets also succumbed to pessimism as the major indices failed to hold onto early gains that put them over key psychological levels of 10,000 on the Sensex and 3000 on the Nifty. The Sensex closed Friday at 9385 and the Nifty at 2810. Monday should be quite negative but look for a reversal Tuesday or Wednesday as transiting Mercury conjoins the natal Jupiter in the NSE chart. Friday looks quite favourable as the Moon transits Purva Phalguni while its lord Venus lords over Purvashada. Barring some catastrophic meltdown in the early part of the week, Indian markets should finish higher than current levels.

The Euro slipped back to 1.26 last week the bearishness in stocks pushed investors to once again seek safe haven in the US dollar. I think there could be more weakness at the start of the week, perhaps under 1.25, but look for the Euro to recover by week's end as Venus conjoins the natal Sun in the Euro chart. We should see a similar pattern in the Rupee which also lost ground last week and closed at 48.8. Early trading may push it above 50 but looks for strengthening by Friday at least back to current levels and then some.

Crude oil fell sharply last week and opens Monday at $57. With Sun and Mercury transiting the 6th house of the Futures chart, more declines are likely early in the week, and we will likely see $55 easily broken. Some bounce is likely by Friday so we return to current levels or slightly above. Crude prices will likely continue to weaken through December, however, as transiting Ketu aspects natal Jupiter

Gold made some modest gains to $742 last week, just as the Sun was leaving Libra, its sign of debilitation. I think gold is likely to move higher this week as the Sun is joined by Mercury in Scorpio after midweek.


For a more detailed forecast, become a subscriber to the MVA Investor Newsletter

Wild ride on Wall St

US stocks swung wildly in a 10% range today before finally closing up 6%. After a midday testing of 8000, the Dow closed at 8835 and the S&P ended at 911. Indian markets were shut for a holiday.

The huge swings this week speak to the ongoing struggle between Uranus and Saturn who are both competing for Jupiter's attention. All three are in close aspect with each other hence the rapid movement between Saturn's pessimism and Uranus' exuberance. The earlier down move this week was so strong, I assumed Saturn was edging out Uranus. After today's action, I'm not so sure. We could start lower in the morning tomorrow, but move up in the afternoon after the Moon moves away from Rahu's influence.

In any event, I still think there is some significant negative energy that needs to be released over the next few sessions. Let's see how it plays out.

US stocks continue downwards

Stocks in New York fell further today on the usual array of gloomy economic news. The Dow ended the day at 8282 while the S&P closed at 852. Indian markets also declined 3% as the Sensex closed at 9536 and the Nifty ended the session at 2848. Mumbai is closed for trading tomorrow so it will have to play catch up on the downside Friday.

My bullish prediction for the week notwithstanding, it's clear that momentum has shifted and we're likely headed down until early next week when we may form a temporary bottom. Even if we manage an up day tomorrow or Friday, we will still likely break below 8000 on the Dow and perhaps 8800 on the Sensex. While I have been stunningly wrong about the market this week, the silver lining is that the trend is down and that is still very much going according to plan.

Markets slide on economic worries

Markets worldwide succumbed to plethora of bad economic news today. In New York stocks fell 2% as the Dow closed at 8693 while the S&P ended the session at 898. Asian losses were steeper, as Indian markets slumped over 6% as the Sensex closed at 9839 and the Nifty at 2938.

Tomorrow should finally see some significant gains in the US in advance of the Full Moon, although the outlook may be less positive for Asia. November is shaping up to be a mixed month within a fairly narrow trading range.

Asia rallies; US slips

US stocks failed to hang on to gains made earlier in the day in Asia on the heels of China's stimulus package. The Dow closed down abotu 1% to 8870 and the SPX ended the day at 919. In India, The Sensex was up 5% to 10,536 while the Nifty climbed to 3148.

One notes that the shift in sentiment may have been related to the changing Moon nakshtra from Saturn-ruled Uttara Bhdrapada to Mercury-ruled Revati. Saturn is aspected by benefic Jupiter, while Mercury occupies the often troublesome nakshatra of Swati. Tomorrow, the Moon enters Ashwini during the North American trading day.

Market Forecast -- week of Nov 10 - 14

US stocks fell 4% last week on a post-election sell off as the Dow closed at 8943 and the SPX at 930. I had expected a negative week on the basis of the Saturn-Uranus opposition, but was somewhat disappointed that the decline wasn't bigger. In retrospect, the market saw gains when the Venus-Saturn-Uranus alignment was most exact, so that it another reminder that the exactitude of transit aspects should not be given greater importance over other factors. One could make a better case for the triggering effects of Mercury moving into Rahu-ruled Swati on Wednesday as the explanation for the decline.

This week will see Jupiter (expansion) move into closer harmonic alignment with both Saturn (restriction) and Uranus (sudden energy). While Jupiter with Uranus often connotes sharp rises, Saturn's role in this multi-planet alignment may dampen market enthusiasm. We may also see subtle sentiment shifts in some sectors as both Venus and Mars have just changed signs. Venus has moved into Sagittarius to join Jupiter and this may assist the consumer sector in a general way. Mars has now entered Scorpio, a sign it rules, and should therefore be regarded as a stronger planet. Of course, strength alone is neither positive or negative for the market, but can indicate that Mars has a greater say in market direction. By virtue of entering Scorpio, Mars has now moved into a tense alignment with Saturn and Uranus which now occupy signs 4 signs away. This aspect is still far from being exact so it would be mistaken to ascribe too much influence to it. As the aspect becomes more exact, we can expect the negative side of Mars to be expressed through declines. For the moment, though, it seems relatively unafflicted, so it is unlikely to push prices down. Another potentially significant aspect this week is the conjunction of Venus and Pluto that occurs on Wednesday. Venus can be seen to represent money in this case, while Pluto symbolizes power and control. On the face of it, this may be a bullish influence for the market. However, sudden falls following the conjunction are common, and indeed one cannot assume that they will correspond exactly to the moment of conjunction itself.

Against my expectations, Indian stocks rose last week as the Sensex closed at 9964 and the Nifty at 2973. While prices did fall towards the end of the week, I was surprised by the extent of early week rise. Market movements reflected the NSE horoscope quite well as markets fell Wednesday and Thursday as transiting Sun conjoined the natal Rahu. While I did not foresee Friday's rise, it was also plausibly indicated through transiting Venus conjoining the NSE ascendant. My error was in ascribing too much influence to the simultaneous transit of Mars to the 12th house cusp of this chart. With transiting Ketu moving away from the natal Mars, it is not unreasonable to believe that the worst losses of the market are now behind us in the short term. This aspect was exactly conjunct in October when the losses were at their steepest. Transiting Sun comes to the natal Jupiter this week so some gains seem likely, although perhaps they will be subject to rapid profit taking as Mercury will conjoin malefic Rahu late in the week.

Most global currencies rallied against the US dollar last week as the banking situation normalized and confidence returned. The Euro even traded above 1.30 earlier in the week and closed Friday's session at 1.27. This was much stronger than I had expected. It seems that the US dollar rally may be over for the short term. I think more gains are possible this week as the Venus-Pluto conjunction may provide a boost for an acquisitiveness thus boosting demand in local currencies. The Rupee is also likely to benefit from this improvement in sentiment.

Crude oil fell back to $61 last week as transiting Mars afflicted the ascendant in the Futures chart. As Mars moves away from this sensitive point, we can expect crude to rise, perhaps sharply. One possible unknown is that the Venus-Pluto conjunction will occur very close to the natal Ketu-Neptune in the Futures chart. It is possible that this will reflect a negative sentiment towards crude, but Ketu is a very changeable planet and it can be converted, as it were, from a malefic to a benefic if the benefic influences on it predominate.

Gold rose modestly last week as it closed at $738. Part of the explanation for the gain lay in the aspect between the transiting Sun and the natal Jupiter in the Futures chart. While this only accounted for perhaps two days' influence, it may have been enough to temporarily offset the longer term background influence of transiting Ketu on the natal Moon. Although Ketu remains a negative influence on Gold now, it is possible we may again see a temporary rise this week as transiting Mercury now falls under the benefic influence of the natal Jupiter. Perhaps more than usual, gold prices will reflect a struggle between Ketu (bearish) and Mercury (bullish).

For a more detailed forecast, please consult the MVA Investor Newsletter, now available by subscription only.

US stocks slide another 5%

US stocks fell sharply on increased jobless claims and poor earnings. The Dow ended the day at 8695 while the S&P stood at 904. Today's decline began in Asia, as Indian markets also lost another 3% as the Sensex finished trading at 9734 and the Nifty at 2893.

So far, this most recent move down is fulfilling our expections for a negative week overall. Tomorrow's trading should be another negative day both in India and the US, although we may see the intraday low occur at some point in the middle of the day rather than at the close, as we've seen lately. 2800 on the Nifty is very possible, and 850 on the S&P is a sort of worst case scenario, with an 880-890 close perhaps more likely. It may be a good day to consider covering shorts with a rally possible sometime next week.

Stocks slide 5%

US stocks fell 5% on bad jobs numbers in the wake of the Obama victory. The Dow closed at 9139 and the S&P ended the day at 952. While some Asian bourses extended their rally yesterday, Mumbai also closed lower by 5% on a negative oulook for Reliance. The Sensex ended trading at 10,120 and the Nifty finished at 2994.

As suggested in my weekly forecast, I think this downturn can be tied to Mercury's entrace into Swati. Look for the negative trend to continue at least until Friday, and most likely into Monday, at least in Asia.

US stocks rally on low volume

US stocks rallied 3% today as optimism surrounding the impending Obama win boosted sentiment albeit on very weak volume. The Dow closed the session at 9625 and the S&P at 1005. Asian stocks also built on recent gains and closed up strongly with the Sensex finishing at 10,631 and the Nifty at 3142.

Although I had expected the early part of the week to be more bearish, this rally has not changed by basic outlook here. Look for a change in market direction tomorrow, perhaps as a result of a refocusing on economic fundamentals, or maybe because of political developements. A McCain win seems increasingly remote, so it seems that the most likely expression of the Saturn-Uranus aspect is the end to the neo-con worldview in the United States in the wake of a Democratic sweep. Whatever ends up happening, a significant decline is imminent. This will spread to world markets and will begin a leg down of about 10% over the next few days. In light of the extent of this rally, a retest of recent lows seems quite unlikely here. An early December retest looking more probable.

US stocks flat before election

Stocks in New York traded within a narrow range as investors were cautious before the US election on Tuesday. The Dow ended the day down frationally at 9319 and the S&P closed at 966. Asian stocks continued last week's rally as the Sensex closed up 5% to 10,337 while the Nifty climbed to 3043.

While I am bearish this week, today's session was not a surprise, particularly as some investors are waiting for the outcome of the election. It is conceivable that the market will not find a clear direction until Wednesday.

Market Forecast -- week of November 3 - 7

Stocks rose over 10% last week on the belief that the worst of the financial crisis has passed. In advance of the US election on Tuesday, the Dow opens trading this week at 9325 while the S&P stands at 968. While I had foreseen some midweek gains last week, I missed the strength of this rally and assumed an earlier beginning to the negative sentiment that will result from the Saturn-Uranus aspect. I grossly underestimated the positive effect of Venus entering Jyestha on the 27th while its lord Mercury was very strong. This resulted in a growth in investor confidence and pushed prices higher, albeit on fairly modest volume.

As I have indicated previously, the markets this week will be heavily influenced by the malefic t-square involving Venus, Saturn and Uranus. The Saturn-Uranus aspect is exact on Tuesday, while Venus forms tense squares with both of these slow moving malefics on Monday. It's quite a negative picture, and with the added feature of a nasty and close US election, there is a real possibility for some unexpected developments that could rattle markets. We also have Mercury in Libra now which therefore draws more negative Saturn energy from its 3rd house aspect to Libra. Moreover, Mercury will move into malefic Swati that is ruled by Rahu on Tuesday evening, just as the polls close. This suggests that the election may be a significant factor in the market.

Overall, this week looks very negative, and the only real question is how low it will go and when that low will be reached. While I think there is a genuine risk of a major 10-15% sell off like we saw in early October, there is a good chance the decline will be more modest. I think we might see the interim low towards the end of the week, but next week also looks fairly negative, especially towards Friday the 14th. A retest of 7773 is still very much in the cards here, although I am not at all certain we will get there. It may be more prudent to expect 8100-8500 this week, but much depends on how bad Monday and Tuesday are. If they are strongly negative and we get down to about 8500 by Tuesday, then a retest becomes more likely in the very near term. A retest also becomes more of a probable eventuality if something unexpected occurs with the election. In any event, this may be a good week to contemplate covering outstanding short positions. Volatility will likely spike once again as a result of the blending of Saturn and Uranus' contradictory planetary energies.

One reason why I am not certain will retest the Oct 10 lows is that some new research I've done suggests that we are more likely to see lower lows in mid-December. In fact, those are more likely to test the 2002-2003 lows of 7100 than anything we will see this week or next. Investors thinking of buying into the market for a longer duration would be well advised to wait until December.

Indian stocks put up some impressive gains as the indices rose 12%. The Sensex opens Monday at 9788 while the Nifty sits at 2885. Notwithstanding my mistaken call for last week, I am maintaining a very bearish outlook for Mumbai this week. Look for substantial losses this week with the week's lows occurring on Thursday or Friday. Transiting Sun will conjoin the NSE Rahu and come under the malefic aspect of the natal Mars on Friday while transiting Mars sits in the 12th house of loss. This is a very bearish configuration that could push prices down at least 10% for the week. There is also a chance we will retest the Oct 27 lows, although I admit I am not certain of this, as next week looks sufficiently negative that it may result in still lower levels.

As stocks advanced last week, so did most currencies against the US dollar. The Euro rose sharply and opens the week above 1.27. With the fall in stocks this week, we can expect to see most of last week's gains disappear. Transiting Mars will aspect the natal Ketu in the Euro chart. As a possible trigger, the transiting Moon will conjoin that natal Ketu on Thursday. This may well mark the largest decline on the week. I expect a low around 1.22-1.25, if not below 1.20 intraday. Other currencies like the Rupee will likely also fall in the coming week, perhaps back to the 50-51 level. Even if the US dollar rises significantly over the next two weeks, I think we won't see the high in the dollar until December.

Crude oil rebounded last week on improved economic sentiment and opens the week at $67. Look for a sell off early in the week as the Venus-Saturn-Uranus configuration activates the angles in the Futures chart. We may well be under $60 by Wednesday. I would not be surprised to see $55 this week or next.

Gold enjoyed a brief rally midweek but fell late sharply on Friday and opens Monday at $718. My bearish outlook for gold remains is unchanged as transiting Sun is still debilitated in Libra. What's worse this week is that it will come closer to the negative influence of Saturn towards the end of the week. I think we will see gold below $700 this week, perhaps well below. There is a lot of technical support at $650 so that is an obvious price target to watch for in the coming days. It may well get there over the next two weeks, but it is not certain. A more reliable low in gold will occur in December.