After last week's slow erosion of optimism in New York, Monday promises for more jitters. At least a 1% drop is possible as the Sun-Mars square dominates. Another potentially negative influence is tr Venus aspected by natal Rahu in the S&P chart. However, the 3rd quarter Moon of March 29, shows a mixed picture as Mars opposes the Moon very closely (bearish) while Mercury and Venus are setting on the 7th cusp over New York. Another probable positive influence is tr Mercury and Venus will be under the influence of the natal Jupiter. So I think this points to a volatile week with days of both significant gains and losses. On balance, though, I think we will have an up week. And if Monday turns out to be positive or merely neutral, then we could be in for a significant rise this week that pushes the indexes up 2-4%, towards resistance levels of 12,700/1370. A more likely scenario is for more modest gains.
After last week's forecast gain left the Nikkei at 12,800, I think there will be additional gains. A Friday close over 13k is very likely, and we could be a fair bit higher than that. Tr Mercury and Venus will be passing over the 9th equal house cusp this week.
While I may have called Friday's up day, I was caught off guard by the BSE's strength last week. More gains are likely this week although we may only finish a little over Monday's open. Tr Mercury falls under aspect of Mars in the BSE 1875 chart on Monday so that may be a down day. On Wednesday, tr Venus falls under the same aspect hence another negative outcome is likely then.
The Euro looks like it will continue on the come back road this week. Monday looks good so we might see $1.59. Tuesday may fall as Moon conjoins the natal Ketu. Wednesday, Thursday and Friday look fairly solid, with the best gains likely on Friday. We may touch $1.60 this week, probably on Friday. But I think we'll finish higher than where we started the week.
Oil looks strong this week as the Pisces planets will be in the 11th house of the Oil futures chart. I'm looking for a big up day Monday as the Sun comes under the benefic aspect of natal Jupiter. Wednesday and Friday look particularly positive also. I think we will touch $108, and $110 is possible, depending on the extent of Tuesday's action.
Gold will probably finish the slightly week higher, but I'm not that bullish here at all. Monday and Friday look best, and we will probably see it rise towards $950 again on either of those days. Tuesday looks negative, as does Thursday, with Wednesday being more neutral. We may end up somewhere between $930 and $950. My thinking here is based on the entry of tr Mercury and Venus into the Gold ETF 4th house which should be mostly positive. However, a possible offsetting influence will be tr Mars' aspect to the natal Jupiter in this chart.
Sunday, March 30, 2008
Friday, March 28, 2008
Market Review -- week of Mar 24-28
As predicted, New York finished down today a little less than 1%. That transiting Moon placement clearly outweighed the positive contained in the Venus-Uranus conjunction. Overall for the week, the market fell about 1% as the Dow settled at 12,216 and the S&P at 1315. In a piece of pure good luck, I had forecast a modestly down week overall right in line with what transpired. Of course, the frequent errors in daily calls reveal a more complex and frankly, ugly reality to my forecasting abilities Oh well, practice makes perfect.
Tokyo didn't quite make it to my forecast high of 13,000 but it came close and finished as 12,820. Bombay finished up Friday as forecast, although we missed the big rally at the close. For the week it finished at 16,371, up strongly from Monday's open. I totally missed this rally, but hopefully the acquisition of the new BSE data improves my luck down the line.
The Euro had a good week as forecast, although $1.60 stayed out of reach. Friday's action went more or less according to the prediction, as it closed at $1.5798. I had thought it would sell off early and then struggle back to near 1.58 which it did.
Oil did much worse than I thought Friday as it dropped over 2% to closed at $105.25. Gold fell back $17.50 to end up at $936. While I thought it would fare poorly on Friday, my weekly forecast was far too bearish.
Monday has all the appearances of a hectic trading day as the Sun and Mars move into a western square aspect. I expect the Euro to go higher (and likely oil and gold as well) and stocks to decline. I'll give more details in my Sunday forecast.
Tokyo didn't quite make it to my forecast high of 13,000 but it came close and finished as 12,820. Bombay finished up Friday as forecast, although we missed the big rally at the close. For the week it finished at 16,371, up strongly from Monday's open. I totally missed this rally, but hopefully the acquisition of the new BSE data improves my luck down the line.
The Euro had a good week as forecast, although $1.60 stayed out of reach. Friday's action went more or less according to the prediction, as it closed at $1.5798. I had thought it would sell off early and then struggle back to near 1.58 which it did.
Oil did much worse than I thought Friday as it dropped over 2% to closed at $105.25. Gold fell back $17.50 to end up at $936. While I thought it would fare poorly on Friday, my weekly forecast was far too bearish.
Monday has all the appearances of a hectic trading day as the Sun and Mars move into a western square aspect. I expect the Euro to go higher (and likely oil and gold as well) and stocks to decline. I'll give more details in my Sunday forecast.
Down again
American markets lost 1% again today as investors saw no reason to buy stocks in the current climate of uncertainty. It seems that the deeper negativity contained in the applying Sun-Mars square is overwhelming positive sentiment of the Venus-Uranus conjunction. Tomorrow looks like another battle as the tr Moon is in aspect with Ketu which is normally a bearish influence. But the Venus-Uranus perfects, so it's hard to think all the action will be negative. Still I think we'll finish down for the day.
Bombay did finish a little lower yesterday as I thought it might, but not very an appreciable amount. The BSE should fare well for most of the day, although some decline is more likely toward the close.
The Euro didn't do much today. Tomorrow looks like a negative start in Europe but with some recovery by the afternoon EST. We should close again near $1.58 but probably a little lower.
Oil rose 1% today and although Gold only held steady. I think Oil is looking stronger of the two tomorrow and should add to its gains this week. I'm not sure that gold will rise, however.
Bombay did finish a little lower yesterday as I thought it might, but not very an appreciable amount. The BSE should fare well for most of the day, although some decline is more likely toward the close.
The Euro didn't do much today. Tomorrow looks like a negative start in Europe but with some recovery by the afternoon EST. We should close again near $1.58 but probably a little lower.
Oil rose 1% today and although Gold only held steady. I think Oil is looking stronger of the two tomorrow and should add to its gains this week. I'm not sure that gold will rise, however.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Hedges are back
American markets were down about 1% today as more bad economic numbers came in. This market obviously has a pretty thin skin these days for that sort of thing. That Venus conjunction with the New Moon chart was AWOL today as the Moon-Saturn square dictated the grim mood. I think the market has one more up day in it this week, and the ingress of the Moon into Jyeshta occurs tomorrow with benefic Jupiter high in the sky.
Bombay looks negative for Thursday as the transiting Moon falls under the aspect of natal Ketu in the BSE chart. Tokyo has already started lower.
The Euro continued its winning streak week as it rose past $1.58 as investors again sought hedges against a falling greenback and inflation. Look for more gains tomorrow.
Oil and Gold both had big gains today. Both will continue to come back towards their pre-March 18th levels this week. Tomorrow will be similar to today's action as gains could be over 2%.
Bombay looks negative for Thursday as the transiting Moon falls under the aspect of natal Ketu in the BSE chart. Tokyo has already started lower.
The Euro continued its winning streak week as it rose past $1.58 as investors again sought hedges against a falling greenback and inflation. Look for more gains tomorrow.
Oil and Gold both had big gains today. Both will continue to come back towards their pre-March 18th levels this week. Tomorrow will be similar to today's action as gains could be over 2%.
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Complex energies
While I had thought that the trend would be mostly negative tomorrow due to the Moon squaring the Saturn-Ketu, there is another contact that is potentially very favourable. The previous New Moon occurred at 23 Aquarius 38 on March 7. Both Mercury and Venus will conjoin that point tomorrow and Thursday which may be a positive influence on sentiment. How these two opposed energies resolve themselves will determine the market's direction. I would tend to think that the bulls have more meat to chew on than the bears on this one.
New York treads water
North American markets stayed flat today amidst negative news of falling consumer sentiment. Given recent nervousness, that might be interpreted as a bullish signal. Two weeks ago, that kind of news would have sparked a sell off. So while I thought we'd be up today, after two days, we are about where I thought we'd be, although I'm not claiming any prescience.
This week's planetary motion will be a good test of the popular 7.52 am chart of the New York Stock Exchange which has 23 Gemini rising (Lahiri). Both Mercury and Venus are transiting on the equal 9th house cusp in Aquarius which ought to spark a gain overall on the week. So far we are up over 1% but if this chart is correct, one would expect at least another 1% before the planets move off.
Bombay roared back to life by climbing above 16k in an impressive 6% rally. I'm less keen on the next couple of days however, as Moon will square the Saturn-Ketu conjunction tomorrow and Moon's ingress into Anuradha in the afternoon suggests it may be hard for the market to finish in the plus column on Thursday. Friday looks good though. Tokyo added 2% as well to get back to 12,700. There is some chance for modest intraday gains Wednesday, but they may not hold by the close. Thursday looks more negative, but Friday should be a high point. But even there, we may well ask if the applying Sun-Mars square will take hold and force investors to the exits. Right now, I don't think so. Next Monday looks more like a day of reckoning, however.
Our Euro forecast is more on track, as it rose two cents today to 1.565. This is looking more like it may hit 1.60 very soon.
Oil rose by just $0.50 while Gold had a strong day adding $16 to close at $930. I had thought that Tuesday would be good for gold and that came to pass. As I suggested early last week before the post-Fed cut gold collapse there appears to be a divergence forming as the Euro and Gold are still valid dollar plays versus Oil, which recession fears have finally undercut its appeal as an inflation hedge. Still, in keeping with my original forecast, I don't expect to see gold duplicating the extent of today's rally, although it may not finish the week as weakly as forecast.
This week's planetary motion will be a good test of the popular 7.52 am chart of the New York Stock Exchange which has 23 Gemini rising (Lahiri). Both Mercury and Venus are transiting on the equal 9th house cusp in Aquarius which ought to spark a gain overall on the week. So far we are up over 1% but if this chart is correct, one would expect at least another 1% before the planets move off.
Bombay roared back to life by climbing above 16k in an impressive 6% rally. I'm less keen on the next couple of days however, as Moon will square the Saturn-Ketu conjunction tomorrow and Moon's ingress into Anuradha in the afternoon suggests it may be hard for the market to finish in the plus column on Thursday. Friday looks good though. Tokyo added 2% as well to get back to 12,700. There is some chance for modest intraday gains Wednesday, but they may not hold by the close. Thursday looks more negative, but Friday should be a high point. But even there, we may well ask if the applying Sun-Mars square will take hold and force investors to the exits. Right now, I don't think so. Next Monday looks more like a day of reckoning, however.
Our Euro forecast is more on track, as it rose two cents today to 1.565. This is looking more like it may hit 1.60 very soon.
Oil rose by just $0.50 while Gold had a strong day adding $16 to close at $930. I had thought that Tuesday would be good for gold and that came to pass. As I suggested early last week before the post-Fed cut gold collapse there appears to be a divergence forming as the Euro and Gold are still valid dollar plays versus Oil, which recession fears have finally undercut its appeal as an inflation hedge. Still, in keeping with my original forecast, I don't expect to see gold duplicating the extent of today's rally, although it may not finish the week as weakly as forecast.
Good news buoys markets
Some good news on the housing front and a larger bid for Bear Stearns
got the markets going 1.5% higher -- a day earlier than I expected. I
had thought Tuesday would seen a big 2% gain. Contrary to my previous
call for an overall negative week, I think we're headed mostly higher
here. Tomorrow still looks good to me so we may start to run up against
resistance levels at 12,750/1370. I think there's a fair chance we will
break through them at some point in the day, even if we fall back
beneath them at the close. There is a good chance for a major dip in
the afternoon.
It's worth noting that Mercury-Venus conjoined today as Venus
surrendered its leading position to Mercury. This conjunction fell
exactly on the natal Sun in the S&P chart so it's not too surprising
that we went up. It will be interesting to see how much upward karma is
left in both those conjunctions for tomorrow and beyond.
got the markets going 1.5% higher -- a day earlier than I expected. I
had thought Tuesday would seen a big 2% gain. Contrary to my previous
call for an overall negative week, I think we're headed mostly higher
here. Tomorrow still looks good to me so we may start to run up against
resistance levels at 12,750/1370. I think there's a fair chance we will
break through them at some point in the day, even if we fall back
beneath them at the close. There is a good chance for a major dip in
the afternoon.
It's worth noting that Mercury-Venus conjoined today as Venus
surrendered its leading position to Mercury. This conjunction fell
exactly on the natal Sun in the S&P chart so it's not too surprising
that we went up. It will be interesting to see how much upward karma is
left in both those conjunctions for tomorrow and beyond.
Sunday, March 23, 2008
Market Forecast -- week of March 24-28
The NYSE is coming off a life-saving rally last week. This week will be a crucial opportunity for a respite with recent nervousness. Certainly, there are some nice planetary configurations to factor in, particularly the equal degree alignment between Mercury, Venus, Jupiter, and Uranus. While this is a fairly rare occurrence, I don't think it will result in a big gain. That's partially due to a fairly bearish-looking March 21 Full Moon that featured an ascendant hemmed in between Mars and Saturn/Ketu. We will have days with large rises, probably on Tuesday and to a lesser extent on Thursday. But the overall market will remain mixed and I believe we will close Friday within 1% of our present levels, probably on the downside. I will make some revised daily forecasts through the week.
Monday looks modestly negative (<1%) as the Moon is in Rahu/Saturn at the open. If the market drops more than 1%, the week will be worse than I thought. Tuesday appears to be the best day (+2%) as the Moon is in Jupiter's nakshatra while completing that upbeat configuration of aforementioned planets. Look for the rally to fade in the afternoon after perfection of the lunar aspect. Wednesday looks like the worst day (-2%) as the Moon is in Saturn/Mercury and squares the Saturn-Nodes. Thursday's Moon is in Mercury's star while the planet of trading enjoys a strong placement. I'm expecting at least a rise of 1%. Friday looks modestly negative as the Moon transits Mercury-Saturn. There is a chance for a larger loss here of perhaps 2% but more likely it will be held to 1% on late buying.
Tokyo will likely track higher this week as the Full Moon showed a clustering of benefics around the ascendant. The Nikkei starts the week at 12,482 and we may see 13k at some point. Monday looks good. Wednesday appears to be the best day, with gains over 2% possible. Friday may be negative as the Moon enters the 6th house of the TSE chart.
Bombay starts the week at 14,994 and will likely end the week in negative territory reinforcing the bearishness. The Full Moon occurred opposite the natal Saturn in the BSE chart and the transiting Sun is between the natal Saturn-Ketu conjunction. Things may get grim here, and we may go below 14,000k at some point. Thursday looks worst.
After the more modest rate cut and revival of confidence in the US dollar, a lot of investors cut their inflation hedge instruments and got out of gold, oil and the Euro. As a result, the Euro fell back under $1.55. I think it's due to rise again this week back near its recent highs, perhaps to $1.57 or $1.58. We are likely looking at an up week here, with real strength towards the end of the week. $1.60 is very possible. The following week also looks bullish for the Euro, even if other commodities continue to weaken.
Opening the week at $101, Oil looks like it will continue to weaken this week. We may go lower than $98. Thursday looks like a gain as the Moon conjoins the natal Jupiter. Friday looks bearish.
Gold looks like it may be in better shape this week to rise above its $920 open, although it's not likely to resume its frenetic bull run for a little while, perhaps in May or June. Monday looks like a gain, especially in the afternoon. Tuesday also has the potential to move up, although things may get shaky after that. Overall, I think we'll end the week lower, but the declines will be more orderly suggesting a consolidation near $850-900 may be taking place. We may test below $900 at some point.
Monday looks modestly negative (<1%) as the Moon is in Rahu/Saturn at the open. If the market drops more than 1%, the week will be worse than I thought. Tuesday appears to be the best day (+2%) as the Moon is in Jupiter's nakshatra while completing that upbeat configuration of aforementioned planets. Look for the rally to fade in the afternoon after perfection of the lunar aspect. Wednesday looks like the worst day (-2%) as the Moon is in Saturn/Mercury and squares the Saturn-Nodes. Thursday's Moon is in Mercury's star while the planet of trading enjoys a strong placement. I'm expecting at least a rise of 1%. Friday looks modestly negative as the Moon transits Mercury-Saturn. There is a chance for a larger loss here of perhaps 2% but more likely it will be held to 1% on late buying.
Tokyo will likely track higher this week as the Full Moon showed a clustering of benefics around the ascendant. The Nikkei starts the week at 12,482 and we may see 13k at some point. Monday looks good. Wednesday appears to be the best day, with gains over 2% possible. Friday may be negative as the Moon enters the 6th house of the TSE chart.
Bombay starts the week at 14,994 and will likely end the week in negative territory reinforcing the bearishness. The Full Moon occurred opposite the natal Saturn in the BSE chart and the transiting Sun is between the natal Saturn-Ketu conjunction. Things may get grim here, and we may go below 14,000k at some point. Thursday looks worst.
After the more modest rate cut and revival of confidence in the US dollar, a lot of investors cut their inflation hedge instruments and got out of gold, oil and the Euro. As a result, the Euro fell back under $1.55. I think it's due to rise again this week back near its recent highs, perhaps to $1.57 or $1.58. We are likely looking at an up week here, with real strength towards the end of the week. $1.60 is very possible. The following week also looks bullish for the Euro, even if other commodities continue to weaken.
Opening the week at $101, Oil looks like it will continue to weaken this week. We may go lower than $98. Thursday looks like a gain as the Moon conjoins the natal Jupiter. Friday looks bearish.
Gold looks like it may be in better shape this week to rise above its $920 open, although it's not likely to resume its frenetic bull run for a little while, perhaps in May or June. Monday looks like a gain, especially in the afternoon. Tuesday also has the potential to move up, although things may get shaky after that. Overall, I think we'll end the week lower, but the declines will be more orderly suggesting a consolidation near $850-900 may be taking place. We may test below $900 at some point.
Friday, March 21, 2008
Market Review - week of Mar 17-21
Markets came back strong after the Fed rate cut as the Dow closed up 261 points to 12,361 while the SPX finished up 31 to close at 1329. I had thought we were due for a rally, but I reckoned it would be next week so my bearish forecast this week missed the mark. We're still in line with our medium term forecast of sideways movement between 1270 and 1380. Early April may see some rallies to the high side of that range, but the end of the month looks bearish as Rahu will tightly conjoin Neptune as Neptune prepares to enter Aquarius.
Tokyo closed up for the week at 12,482, again upstaging my gloomy forecast. I think Tokyo is likely to start a significant rally in April that extends into May. This may take the Nikkei up to recent resistance levels to14,000. Maybe they'll finally get around to appointing someone to head the BOJ. Bombay did follow the script I had prepared and closed below 15,000 as forecast. While we might see some gains in the weeks ahead, I don't think there is much upside to the Sensex in the coming months while the downside risk is hard to ignore. There is solid support at 14,000 that will be severely tested in the coming months. I don't think it's going to hold.
The Euro finally succumbed to some greenback optimism and broke it's winning streak closing at $1.543. Our medium term forecast for a much higher Euro above 1.60 is still in place but we'll have to wait a while longer.
I correctly called the oil pullback this week as it closed at 101.84. I think it's likely to drift down further to the $90 to $100 range over the next two months as fears of a slowdown take root. Prices should rebound after Jupiter turns retrograde in early May. The late summer should see prices making new all-time highs.
Gold's fall from stratospheric grace was perhaps the biggest story this week. It was one I missed unfortunately. I knew that there was a no-man's land in between Mercury and Venus in the gold futures chart that transiting Jupiter could not hope to straddle indefinitely. It seems to have lost its boosting power in the middle, just as transiting Mars was moving into position in the 6th house. There may be a pullback under $900 in the coming weeks as the price consolidates with profit taking. We may still see rallies towards $1000 in April but I'm not sure they will succeed. The medium term prospects for gold are still very bullish by my reckoning as Jupiter's retrograde motion in May will likely help support prices. A monster rally will ensue in August and September where gold will likely move past $1100 and well beyond.
Tokyo closed up for the week at 12,482, again upstaging my gloomy forecast. I think Tokyo is likely to start a significant rally in April that extends into May. This may take the Nikkei up to recent resistance levels to14,000. Maybe they'll finally get around to appointing someone to head the BOJ. Bombay did follow the script I had prepared and closed below 15,000 as forecast. While we might see some gains in the weeks ahead, I don't think there is much upside to the Sensex in the coming months while the downside risk is hard to ignore. There is solid support at 14,000 that will be severely tested in the coming months. I don't think it's going to hold.
The Euro finally succumbed to some greenback optimism and broke it's winning streak closing at $1.543. Our medium term forecast for a much higher Euro above 1.60 is still in place but we'll have to wait a while longer.
I correctly called the oil pullback this week as it closed at 101.84. I think it's likely to drift down further to the $90 to $100 range over the next two months as fears of a slowdown take root. Prices should rebound after Jupiter turns retrograde in early May. The late summer should see prices making new all-time highs.
Gold's fall from stratospheric grace was perhaps the biggest story this week. It was one I missed unfortunately. I knew that there was a no-man's land in between Mercury and Venus in the gold futures chart that transiting Jupiter could not hope to straddle indefinitely. It seems to have lost its boosting power in the middle, just as transiting Mars was moving into position in the 6th house. There may be a pullback under $900 in the coming weeks as the price consolidates with profit taking. We may still see rallies towards $1000 in April but I'm not sure they will succeed. The medium term prospects for gold are still very bullish by my reckoning as Jupiter's retrograde motion in May will likely help support prices. A monster rally will ensue in August and September where gold will likely move past $1100 and well beyond.
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Profit taking
New York sold off 2.5% after yesterday's big run-up as investors looked to lock in some gains in the midst of continuing uncertainty. The Dow closed off 293 points to 12,099 while the SPX closed at 1298, down 32. This is roughly in keeping with yesterday's negative forecast. Tomorrow looks pretty good as the Moon trines Jupiter at midday. I think we should finish up moderately for the day and the week.
Overseas markets have not bounced back as strongly on the heels of NY's gains however. Tokyo closed up 300 points to 12,260 but it's unlikely to get back to previous support levels (12,600), although I think an afternoon rally is very possible that puts the Nikkei in the green. Bombay was also sluggish yesterday as the Sensex closed up 1% to 14,993. It is sadly fulfilling our bearish forecast for the week. Thursday looks better, but it's also not going to get back to 16k
.
Commodities sold off sharply as oil finished at $102, down $6. Gold lost $59 to $945. Our bearish forecast for crude will easily be fulfilled this week and its doubtful that oil will stage much of a rally. Gold is also likely to continue to slip backwards until next week.
Despite the rate disappointment, the Euro is holding on to $1.562. This bodes well for its strength down the road. It will likely resume its climb tomorrow.
Overseas markets have not bounced back as strongly on the heels of NY's gains however. Tokyo closed up 300 points to 12,260 but it's unlikely to get back to previous support levels (12,600), although I think an afternoon rally is very possible that puts the Nikkei in the green. Bombay was also sluggish yesterday as the Sensex closed up 1% to 14,993. It is sadly fulfilling our bearish forecast for the week. Thursday looks better, but it's also not going to get back to 16k
.
Commodities sold off sharply as oil finished at $102, down $6. Gold lost $59 to $945. Our bearish forecast for crude will easily be fulfilled this week and its doubtful that oil will stage much of a rally. Gold is also likely to continue to slip backwards until next week.
Despite the rate disappointment, the Euro is holding on to $1.562. This bodes well for its strength down the road. It will likely resume its climb tomorrow.
Gold down $60
Gold prices are plummeting today as investors bail out of the safe haven. It's now down under $950.
I hadn't foreseen this decline although I knew that we were in a volatile period where sharp rises and drops were possible.
Here's my current best guess on the astrological causes for today's plunge.
If we use the 10.00 am Gold futures chart (4 Aq rising), we know that transiting Rahu is sitting right on that ascendant. That makes sudden prices changes more likely, although the direction is not indicated.
We also know that this chart is running Venus-Saturn-Mercury dasha. Working backwards, natal Mercury (23 Sg) was recently conjoined by tr Jupiter but now that Jupiter is more than a degree away and separating (24 Sg). This is a bearish influence as I have noted that more often than not, aspects give their fullest effects during application and conjunction. One problem lies in identifying the exact day that hitherto bullish aspect loses its strength.
Transiting Mercury is in an interesting situation. While it is close to transiting Venus, presumably a favourable influence, and it is separating from the opposition aspect of transiting Saturn (another presumably bullish influence), today the transiting Moon joined tr Saturn to oppose tr Mercury. This Lunar influence may have brought forward some of the negative energies of the Saturn opposition to Mercury.
Subperiod lord Saturn is not closely aspected by any planet, although by transit, we may infer a stressful condition owing to the conjunction of tr Moon and tr Mercury. An added possible layer of bearish influence may be found in the fact that Mercury rules the dussthana 8th and Moon rules the dussthana 6th in the natal chart. Any transit combination of these planets with dasha lords may tend to indicate price declines.
But all this is sheer hypothesis as I'm nowhere near satisfied with this explanation. Yet another one of the market's enduring puzzles.
I'm still expecting a major rise Monday and Tuesday next week as the Mer-Ven conjoins the natal Jupiter. It may not take us back over $1000, however.
Other down days will include March 28-31 as tr Mars exactly opposes the natal Sun while tr Sun opposes natal Pluto forming a Western-style "Grand Cross". This looks like another significant sell off.
The next major bullish influence will the tr Jupiter stationing near the natal Venus in late April, soon after which we will likely see another sharp decline.
I'm not sure about the near term top . I think we may have another chance at new highs in April, and then again in August and later on in December. But after April, I think there will be price consolidation in gold that does not bode well for it overall. It may be time to rethink the basis of this secular rally in gold.
I hadn't foreseen this decline although I knew that we were in a volatile period where sharp rises and drops were possible.
Here's my current best guess on the astrological causes for today's plunge.
If we use the 10.00 am Gold futures chart (4 Aq rising), we know that transiting Rahu is sitting right on that ascendant. That makes sudden prices changes more likely, although the direction is not indicated.
We also know that this chart is running Venus-Saturn-Mercury dasha. Working backwards, natal Mercury (23 Sg) was recently conjoined by tr Jupiter but now that Jupiter is more than a degree away and separating (24 Sg). This is a bearish influence as I have noted that more often than not, aspects give their fullest effects during application and conjunction. One problem lies in identifying the exact day that hitherto bullish aspect loses its strength.
Transiting Mercury is in an interesting situation. While it is close to transiting Venus, presumably a favourable influence, and it is separating from the opposition aspect of transiting Saturn (another presumably bullish influence), today the transiting Moon joined tr Saturn to oppose tr Mercury. This Lunar influence may have brought forward some of the negative energies of the Saturn opposition to Mercury.
Subperiod lord Saturn is not closely aspected by any planet, although by transit, we may infer a stressful condition owing to the conjunction of tr Moon and tr Mercury. An added possible layer of bearish influence may be found in the fact that Mercury rules the dussthana 8th and Moon rules the dussthana 6th in the natal chart. Any transit combination of these planets with dasha lords may tend to indicate price declines.
But all this is sheer hypothesis as I'm nowhere near satisfied with this explanation. Yet another one of the market's enduring puzzles.
I'm still expecting a major rise Monday and Tuesday next week as the Mer-Ven conjoins the natal Jupiter. It may not take us back over $1000, however.
Other down days will include March 28-31 as tr Mars exactly opposes the natal Sun while tr Sun opposes natal Pluto forming a Western-style "Grand Cross". This looks like another significant sell off.
The next major bullish influence will the tr Jupiter stationing near the natal Venus in late April, soon after which we will likely see another sharp decline.
I'm not sure about the near term top . I think we may have another chance at new highs in April, and then again in August and later on in December. But after April, I think there will be price consolidation in gold that does not bode well for it overall. It may be time to rethink the basis of this secular rally in gold.
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Markets up off the mat -- at least for now
NY markets staged a stunning 4% rally today in the wake of a huge rate 75 pt cut and some decent earnings news from teetering investment houses. Both key indexes closed above their old support levels of 12,150 and 1320 as investors did not succumb to fear.
Although I missed this rally completely, I take some comfort in the fact that the markets are moving within the range I laid out back in January and February. At that time, I thought that the markets would be increasingly choppy especially on the downside and rallies towards 1400 on the SPX or 13,200 on the Dow wouldn't stick. So the official bear market call can stay on the shelf for another few weeks until the last gasps of air are gone which should be in April or May.
Tomorrow starts off with the Moon conjunct Saturn so it looks like an early round of profit taking. I don't foresee a big move tomorrow either way, although I think we'll likely finish somewhat lower.
I had thought the market was due for a decent rally starting next week, but it seems to have got an early start. We might see a little give back down to 1310/11,900 for the rest of this week, but next week's rally will take us back in heady territory of the old resistance levels near 1400. I don't think we'll quite get all the way back, but it will look impressive.
Although I missed this rally completely, I take some comfort in the fact that the markets are moving within the range I laid out back in January and February. At that time, I thought that the markets would be increasingly choppy especially on the downside and rallies towards 1400 on the SPX or 13,200 on the Dow wouldn't stick. So the official bear market call can stay on the shelf for another few weeks until the last gasps of air are gone which should be in April or May.
Tomorrow starts off with the Moon conjunct Saturn so it looks like an early round of profit taking. I don't foresee a big move tomorrow either way, although I think we'll likely finish somewhat lower.
I had thought the market was due for a decent rally starting next week, but it seems to have got an early start. We might see a little give back down to 1310/11,900 for the rest of this week, but next week's rally will take us back in heady territory of the old resistance levels near 1400. I don't think we'll quite get all the way back, but it will look impressive.
Monday, March 17, 2008
Queasy Monday
After the Fed's emergency rate and the shocking Bear Stearns takeover, NY markets bravely fought their way uphill all day finishing pretty much where we thought they would finish -- just down about 1%. The planet of trading, Mercury was aspected full of Saturn's bearish sentiment. The Dow closed up 21 to 11,972 but the broader S&P closed down 11 to 1276. They'll be no shortage of news tomorrow as Lehman Bros and Merrill Lymch report earnings (they could be the next corporate welfare cases) while the FOMC meets in the afternoon. I don't see much evidence for a big snapback rally here, but neither do I see a big downdraft either. Sentiment still looks negative, but I'm less convinced of that than I was of today's trading. I'd say we stand a good chance to lose another 1% although the intraday range will probably be huge. Overall, the week still looks bearish. Friday is a holiday (Good Friday) so everything will come together on Thursday. Right now, it's looking middling to negative, which is pretty amazing considering we're in the middle of perhaps the worst financial crisis since WW2.
Tokyo and Bombay were down sharply as the Nikkei closed at 11,787 and the Sensex finished at 14,809. Look for relief rallies there on Tuesday although I wouldn't expect more than a 2-3% comeback in both.
Oil fell as forecast, as crude slipped $5 to $105. Gold rallied early overseas to $1025 but was caught up in the selling mood in North America and finished marginally higher to $1002. It seems the speculators may now have de-camped from oil and set up shop in gold. Oil will probably fall further (below $100 maybe) and gold will hold firm and likely try for $1010.
The Euro was up a bit closing at $1. 573, again after hitting $1.59 overseas. The Euro will likely go into orbit tomorrow after the Fed cuts rates by likely 1 full percent.
Tokyo and Bombay were down sharply as the Nikkei closed at 11,787 and the Sensex finished at 14,809. Look for relief rallies there on Tuesday although I wouldn't expect more than a 2-3% comeback in both.
Oil fell as forecast, as crude slipped $5 to $105. Gold rallied early overseas to $1025 but was caught up in the selling mood in North America and finished marginally higher to $1002. It seems the speculators may now have de-camped from oil and set up shop in gold. Oil will probably fall further (below $100 maybe) and gold will hold firm and likely try for $1010.
The Euro was up a bit closing at $1. 573, again after hitting $1.59 overseas. The Euro will likely go into orbit tomorrow after the Fed cuts rates by likely 1 full percent.
Sunday, March 16, 2008
Market Forecast -- week of Mar 17-21
NY starts the week at 11,951/1288. This looks like another negative week upcoming as a number of hard aspects are perfecting. In the background there is the promise of some upside as a harmonically favourable relationship between Jupiter and Uranus is forming. I still think this has another week to go before we see any big upwards movement from it, however. Monday should decline by at least 1% as Mercury opposes Saturn. Friday also looks quite bearish. I think we'll see new intraday and closing lows (below 11,500/1270) at some point in NY in the week, possibly as low as 11,250/1250.
Tokyo and Bombay will follow suit . The Nikkei starts at 12,241 and is already down below 12k in early Monday trading. I think we'll see a range from 12,500 to 11,400 during the week and it will close below 12k by Friday. The Sensex opens at 15,760 Monday and will likely finish below that level by Friday, possibly near 15k. A range between 16,200 and 14,500 is possible.
The Euro continues on its bull run this week and into the Spring. Monday and Tuesday look fantastic and we should see at least a 2 cent gain in those days, perhaps getting us as high as 1.60 by week's end. We are in good position to ride the Euro significantly higher by May.
Oil is due for a pullback this week as tr Sun squares Ketu and Neptune while Mercury and Venus square Uranus-Jupiter. While some new intraday highs above $111 are possible, I think the safer bet is the downside, perhaps as low as $105. And given the recent speculative volatility of this market, I would not be surprised to see crude to fall below that.
Gold is shining brightly this week and will add to last week's historic gains. While we may see lows in the $990 range, it will close above $1010 by Friday, probably at least $1020-1030.
Tokyo and Bombay will follow suit . The Nikkei starts at 12,241 and is already down below 12k in early Monday trading. I think we'll see a range from 12,500 to 11,400 during the week and it will close below 12k by Friday. The Sensex opens at 15,760 Monday and will likely finish below that level by Friday, possibly near 15k. A range between 16,200 and 14,500 is possible.
The Euro continues on its bull run this week and into the Spring. Monday and Tuesday look fantastic and we should see at least a 2 cent gain in those days, perhaps getting us as high as 1.60 by week's end. We are in good position to ride the Euro significantly higher by May.
Oil is due for a pullback this week as tr Sun squares Ketu and Neptune while Mercury and Venus square Uranus-Jupiter. While some new intraday highs above $111 are possible, I think the safer bet is the downside, perhaps as low as $105. And given the recent speculative volatility of this market, I would not be surprised to see crude to fall below that.
Gold is shining brightly this week and will add to last week's historic gains. While we may see lows in the $990 range, it will close above $1010 by Friday, probably at least $1020-1030.
Friday, March 14, 2008
Market Review -- week of Mar 10-14
The week finished up as it started -- down. Markets were down about 2% as the Dow fell 194 points to 11,951 and the S&P dropped 27 to 1288. For the week, the Dow gained 58 points while the S&P lost 5. My weekly forecast had called for a modest decline so this mostly flat result was a little wide of the mark but still credible as the week did end bearishly. Our call that previous lows would be broken on an intraday basis was also overly bearish as the previous low on the S&P 1270 was tested on Monday (1272) but held firm the rest of the week, especially after Tuesday's spectacular run up. Monday holds the promise of a Mercury-Saturn opposition.
My bearish forecast better captured the action on the Tokyo and Bombay markets. Tokyo did finish down on the week as forecast to close at 12,241 (Monday open: 12,782) while the Sensex ended the week at 15,760, down modestly from Monday's open at 15,975. The Nikkei's intraday low of 12,167 wasn't far off our forecast for 12,000 and is its lowest level since 2005.
I continue to be correct on the direction of the Euro but still too conservative. I had thought we wouldn't go beyond $1.55 until next week but alas, we closed at $1.567 as the abandonment of the greenback continues in the face of inflationary bailouts by the Fed.
Oil rode the bull again this week as forecast, and my call for $110 was more or less correct. Oil finished at $110.21, after being as high as $112.
Gold finally reached $1000 on Friday touching as high as $1009, although it closed just under at $999.50. I wasn't sure we could do it this week but I did think that if we did, it would be on Friday and it was. On the other hand, the lack of a close about $1000 may force us to take Monday more seriously as an historic day on that score.
My bearish forecast better captured the action on the Tokyo and Bombay markets. Tokyo did finish down on the week as forecast to close at 12,241 (Monday open: 12,782) while the Sensex ended the week at 15,760, down modestly from Monday's open at 15,975. The Nikkei's intraday low of 12,167 wasn't far off our forecast for 12,000 and is its lowest level since 2005.
I continue to be correct on the direction of the Euro but still too conservative. I had thought we wouldn't go beyond $1.55 until next week but alas, we closed at $1.567 as the abandonment of the greenback continues in the face of inflationary bailouts by the Fed.
Oil rode the bull again this week as forecast, and my call for $110 was more or less correct. Oil finished at $110.21, after being as high as $112.
Gold finally reached $1000 on Friday touching as high as $1009, although it closed just under at $999.50. I wasn't sure we could do it this week but I did think that if we did, it would be on Friday and it was. On the other hand, the lack of a close about $1000 may force us to take Monday more seriously as an historic day on that score.
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Euro soars past $1.55
As forecasted on Sunday, the Euro hit a new record of 1.555 today just
as the Sun conjoined its natal Jupiter. Our bullish forecast on the
Euro has been too conservative perhaps and with ongoing concerns about
the US economy it seems that 1.60 may be only weeks rather than months
away. It seems that medium term top may form in May or June. This
rally has much more to go, perhaps to 1.70 or 1.80.
Oil hit $110 today as our bullish forecast had suggested. Tomorrow
looks like the speculative frenzy will continue perhaps as high as
$112-114 with the biggest gains occurring at the NY open. There will
profit taking after that that may take the price back towards $110.
Gold rose today as forecast although we didn't manage a $10 gain.
Bullion closed at $982 up $8. Tomorrow looks fairly bullish although
gains may be modest. Friday looks better though, as does Monday. It
may put us over the top finally.
NY markets closed moderately lower after yesterday's big gain. As
forecast yesterday we did see an afternoon sell off with the approach of
the Moon-Saturn square and the Dow closed at 12,110 off 46, and the S&P
finished at 1308 down 11. I think we're headed down further from here
for the rest of the week with Monday's lows in the cross hairs. Expect
to see the S&P back around 1280.
Bombay and Tokyo did not fare too well in the wake of the US rally
yesterday. The Sensex was basically unchanged at 16,127 and the Nikkei
closed up 202 at 12,861. Thursday looks mildly bearish so the close may
be under 16k on the BSE while Tokyo will likely experience a significant
decline, possibly down to 12,600 or lower.
as the Sun conjoined its natal Jupiter. Our bullish forecast on the
Euro has been too conservative perhaps and with ongoing concerns about
the US economy it seems that 1.60 may be only weeks rather than months
away. It seems that medium term top may form in May or June. This
rally has much more to go, perhaps to 1.70 or 1.80.
Oil hit $110 today as our bullish forecast had suggested. Tomorrow
looks like the speculative frenzy will continue perhaps as high as
$112-114 with the biggest gains occurring at the NY open. There will
profit taking after that that may take the price back towards $110.
Gold rose today as forecast although we didn't manage a $10 gain.
Bullion closed at $982 up $8. Tomorrow looks fairly bullish although
gains may be modest. Friday looks better though, as does Monday. It
may put us over the top finally.
NY markets closed moderately lower after yesterday's big gain. As
forecast yesterday we did see an afternoon sell off with the approach of
the Moon-Saturn square and the Dow closed at 12,110 off 46, and the S&P
finished at 1308 down 11. I think we're headed down further from here
for the rest of the week with Monday's lows in the cross hairs. Expect
to see the S&P back around 1280.
Bombay and Tokyo did not fare too well in the wake of the US rally
yesterday. The Sensex was basically unchanged at 16,127 and the Nikkei
closed up 202 at 12,861. Thursday looks mildly bearish so the close may
be under 16k on the BSE while Tokyo will likely experience a significant
decline, possibly down to 12,600 or lower.
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Big rally
New York put on a stunning show today in the wake of the emergency infusion of liquidity into the banking system. Stocks rose over 3% as the indexes closed at their previous support levels. The Dow finished at 12,156 and the S&P at 1320. I think the rest of the week looks mostly negative though. Tomorrow may be flat at best, but Thursday looks dicey. Friday may see a slight recovery at the open, but a sell off is likely towards the close. I can see markets finishing not that far from Monday's open.
Bombay's Sensex has done fairly well so far this week and is due for an up day tomorrow on the heels of this rally, but I'm not optimistic that the gains will hold by Friday. I think we'll end up pretty close to the familiar neighbourhood of 16k
Gold held steady around $974, which is not bad considering the enthusiasm for stocks. Tomorrow looks very good, however, so we should see at least a $10 gain. Oil is still going crazy as it passed $108 as investors look for safe havens from inflation. Oil's gains tomorrow will be modest will price weakening in late afternoon trading.
Bombay's Sensex has done fairly well so far this week and is due for an up day tomorrow on the heels of this rally, but I'm not optimistic that the gains will hold by Friday. I think we'll end up pretty close to the familiar neighbourhood of 16k
Gold held steady around $974, which is not bad considering the enthusiasm for stocks. Tomorrow looks very good, however, so we should see at least a $10 gain. Oil is still going crazy as it passed $108 as investors look for safe havens from inflation. Oil's gains tomorrow will be modest will price weakening in late afternoon trading.
Sunday, March 9, 2008
Market Forecast -- week of Mar 10-14
In keeping with our previous forecast, American markets turned bearish last week as key indexes broke through their previous January lows. This week is likely to be similarly negative with serious retesting of the Jan 22 intraday lows (11,500/1270). I expect to the market to break through those levels at least on an intraday basis. Thursday may be decidedly negative as the transiting Sun opposes the natal Mars of the NYSE chart. Friday's close also looks like a decline so we should finish lower than Monday's open. The week after next (esp Monday the 17th) looks more negative so investors looking for exitable rallies would do well to act this week or wait a couple more weeks. That said, I think we won't see 13,000/1420 for many months, or perhaps even next year.
Bombay and Tokyo are also coming off tough weeks. The Sensex is unlikely to experience any great recovery this week. In fact, I think we'll end up lower than where we started at 15,975. Tuesday looks like the most bullish day. Starting the week at 12,782, the Nikkei will also retest lows this week given the transiting Saturn square to the natal Venus in the TSE chart. Rallies will be weak and may not go much above 13,000, while the intraday downside may see 12,000.
The decline in the US dollar and the rise in the Euro will continue, although I think the gains may be more modest this week. Monday looks mostly negative, perhaps will dips near 1.525. The rest of the week seems stronger overall with a rise into Friday. Next week looks like there will be more upside beyond 1.55.
Oil is likely to continue higher. Monday may be negative, but the upward trend with resume on Tuesday. We may see $110 at some point this week. Thursday looks like a big gain.
Gold starts the week at $972 and is poised to hit $1000 and yet I'm questioning my faith that it will break through this week. Monday looks the most volatile but I'm not certain if the market will stay positive. A decline for Tuesday seems likely. Wednesday looks strongest. Retracement is likely for Thursday with Friday as an up day that may take us over the top. We should end the week higher than where we started.
Bombay and Tokyo are also coming off tough weeks. The Sensex is unlikely to experience any great recovery this week. In fact, I think we'll end up lower than where we started at 15,975. Tuesday looks like the most bullish day. Starting the week at 12,782, the Nikkei will also retest lows this week given the transiting Saturn square to the natal Venus in the TSE chart. Rallies will be weak and may not go much above 13,000, while the intraday downside may see 12,000.
The decline in the US dollar and the rise in the Euro will continue, although I think the gains may be more modest this week. Monday looks mostly negative, perhaps will dips near 1.525. The rest of the week seems stronger overall with a rise into Friday. Next week looks like there will be more upside beyond 1.55.
Oil is likely to continue higher. Monday may be negative, but the upward trend with resume on Tuesday. We may see $110 at some point this week. Thursday looks like a big gain.
Gold starts the week at $972 and is poised to hit $1000 and yet I'm questioning my faith that it will break through this week. Monday looks the most volatile but I'm not certain if the market will stay positive. A decline for Tuesday seems likely. Wednesday looks strongest. Retracement is likely for Thursday with Friday as an up day that may take us over the top. We should end the week higher than where we started.
Saturday, March 8, 2008
Market Review -- week of Mar 3 -7
Markets did finish the week lower, as we predicted. If anything, sentiment was more bearish than we thought. The American market finished down 1% Friday to finish at the lowest level since 2006. The Dow closed at 11,893 down 146 while the S&P closed at 1293 down 10 points. This was a clear breakdown of support levels, although the technically inclined may note that the Jan 22 intraday lows (11,500/1270) have yet to be breached.
Our Tokyo and Bombay calls were also fairly prescient as the Nikkei closed at 12,783, down 430 points Friday while the Sensex ended the week at 15,975 down 580. Our revised forecast had suggested that the Sensex would close around 16,000 so the skittish mood was borne out.
The bull market in the Euro, oil and gold did continue, although with some divergences from our expectations. The Euro ended the week much stronger than our forecast, closing at 1.5357. Oil closed Friday above $105 without any retracements. Gold did finish off its mid-week highs of $992 to close off a bit at $972.
Oil seems overdue for a pullback, especially since Saturn is aspecting the Moon in the futures chart in the next two weeks.
Our Tokyo and Bombay calls were also fairly prescient as the Nikkei closed at 12,783, down 430 points Friday while the Sensex ended the week at 15,975 down 580. Our revised forecast had suggested that the Sensex would close around 16,000 so the skittish mood was borne out.
The bull market in the Euro, oil and gold did continue, although with some divergences from our expectations. The Euro ended the week much stronger than our forecast, closing at 1.5357. Oil closed Friday above $105 without any retracements. Gold did finish off its mid-week highs of $992 to close off a bit at $972.
Oil seems overdue for a pullback, especially since Saturn is aspecting the Moon in the futures chart in the next two weeks.
Thursday, March 6, 2008
Gathering Gloom: Markets finish below support levels
American markets have closed decisively below important support levels (12150/1320) today as the Dow closed down 214 points at 12,040 and the S&P finished at 1304 down 29 points. These were near the lows of the day and reflect the overall pessimistic mood contained in the Moon-Saturn opposition that perfected near noon. This was in keeping with our negative call yesterday and confirmed the weekly forecast that we would break through these levels this week. There's one more chance for the indexes to finish higher for the week, but while I can see an up day, I don't think they're going to make it back above water.
Bombay closed higher Wednesday at 16,542 for a nice 212 point gain in keeping with our forecast. Friday will be negative on the heels on New York's bearishness so we likely managed to get that right. It's very possible that it, too, will breach its support levels of 16,200. Tokyo will likely finish the week below 13,000, perhaps around 12,600.
The Euro continues to its own shock and awe campaign as it finished at 1.5382. While our bullish stance on the Euro has been borne out by recent moves, its day-to-day fluctuations have been harder to peg. I think it will be up further tomorrow. The greenback went below 0.65 for a time today. I am expecting it to decline to 0.60 at some point this year.
Oil rose almost a dollar to finish at 105.44 confounding my expectations. It's on a relentless roll now and it will continue for the next few weeks at least. The next few days look very bullish so $110 is not out of the question. Gold slumped back $11 to 977 but will climb higher Friday and Monday. Let's see if it can hit the 4 digit mark.
Bombay closed higher Wednesday at 16,542 for a nice 212 point gain in keeping with our forecast. Friday will be negative on the heels on New York's bearishness so we likely managed to get that right. It's very possible that it, too, will breach its support levels of 16,200. Tokyo will likely finish the week below 13,000, perhaps around 12,600.
The Euro continues to its own shock and awe campaign as it finished at 1.5382. While our bullish stance on the Euro has been borne out by recent moves, its day-to-day fluctuations have been harder to peg. I think it will be up further tomorrow. The greenback went below 0.65 for a time today. I am expecting it to decline to 0.60 at some point this year.
Oil rose almost a dollar to finish at 105.44 confounding my expectations. It's on a relentless roll now and it will continue for the next few weeks at least. The next few days look very bullish so $110 is not out of the question. Gold slumped back $11 to 977 but will climb higher Friday and Monday. Let's see if it can hit the 4 digit mark.
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Commodities rally
Oil and gold hit record highs again today. Crude closed up $4 to $104.75 as the double barreled beneficence of the Moon with Venus transiting the equal 9th house cusp of the futures chart proven to be a very bullish combination. Gold rose $22 to $988. I think tomorrow will be quieter especially given the Moon-Saturn opposition that occurs midday New York time. A small drop (<1%) is likely in prices.. Gold will likely continue rising Friday though and may break through the $1000 barrier as the transiting Moon conjoins the natal Jupiter. If it doesn't do it Friday, then Monday or Tuesday.
The Euro finished above our forecast range to close at 1.527. Thursday will take it down substantially, back under 1.52 and possibly touching 1.515 intraday. Friday looks like an up day, especially in late afternoon trading (CET) as the transiting Moon approaches the natal Jupiter. I would expect a close above 1.52.
Stocks in New York finished modestly higher as we forecast. The Dow closed at 12,254 up 41 points and the S&P ended the day at 1333 up 6. Tomorrow looks like a down day, although I think we'll stay above support levels (12150/1320) by the close.
Bombay and Tokyo finished higher yesterday and look poised to continue the upward swing Thursday. The Sensex may reach 16,800. Friday looks quite negative. Look for the BSE to test its support levels of 16,200 at some point in the day. It may break through but will likely finish above it by the close.
The Euro finished above our forecast range to close at 1.527. Thursday will take it down substantially, back under 1.52 and possibly touching 1.515 intraday. Friday looks like an up day, especially in late afternoon trading (CET) as the transiting Moon approaches the natal Jupiter. I would expect a close above 1.52.
Stocks in New York finished modestly higher as we forecast. The Dow closed at 12,254 up 41 points and the S&P ended the day at 1333 up 6. Tomorrow looks like a down day, although I think we'll stay above support levels (12150/1320) by the close.
Bombay and Tokyo finished higher yesterday and look poised to continue the upward swing Thursday. The Sensex may reach 16,800. Friday looks quite negative. Look for the BSE to test its support levels of 16,200 at some point in the day. It may break through but will likely finish above it by the close.
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Wall St bends but does not break
American markets plumbed the depths of its support levels today but finished above them. The Dow was down as low as 12,032 in the afternoon but climbed to close at 12,213. The S&P likewise fell below the 1320 support level all the way down to 1307 before closing at 1326. I think tomorrow starts lower but may recover by the afternoon. We may finish a little higher.
Bombay and Tokyo have had substantial haircuts so far this week. The Sensex finished Tuesday at 16,339 down more than 1000 points from Monday's open. Tokyo has proven more resilient to this sell off and held steady in Tuesday trading just under the 13,000 level. The risk is mostly on the downside here going into Thursday.
Oil and gold pulled off their highs and finished sharply lower. This is in keeping with our forecast that the week looked less bullish than last. Gold is the better bet of the two to head higher by the end of the week and next week. The Euro held onto its recent gains and closed at 1.52. It will likely stay within 1.1515 and 1.525 for the next couple days.
Bombay and Tokyo have had substantial haircuts so far this week. The Sensex finished Tuesday at 16,339 down more than 1000 points from Monday's open. Tokyo has proven more resilient to this sell off and held steady in Tuesday trading just under the 13,000 level. The risk is mostly on the downside here going into Thursday.
Oil and gold pulled off their highs and finished sharply lower. This is in keeping with our forecast that the week looked less bullish than last. Gold is the better bet of the two to head higher by the end of the week and next week. The Euro held onto its recent gains and closed at 1.52. It will likely stay within 1.1515 and 1.525 for the next couple days.
Sunday, March 2, 2008
Market Forecast -- week of March 3-7
Equity markets are probably headed lower this week. The question is: will they break through support levels? My initial reading of the charts says yes, although things will be clearer by midweek. The end of the week looks most negative, so if we can get some up days in the early part of the week, then the indexes may not break decisively through. In NY, I do think we'll end up lower than where we start (12,266 on the Dow and 1330 on the S&P), but possibly not by much. Right now, I'd say we have a greater than 50% chance of breaking down below 12,000/1320 at least on an intraday basis. Nonetheless, any rallies to 12,500/1360 that may occur early on should be seen as exit points from the market. Venus and Mercury will oppose the natal Uranus in the NYSE chart through much of the week, so expect a lot of volatility.
Tokyo and Bombay's BSE are also headed lower from their present levels. The Nikkei may fare better of the two, although it will seriously retest its January low of 12,572. The Sensex will probably drop below its previous February low of 16,600, especially by Thursday as Mercury and Venus oppose the natal Mars in the BSE chart. It has the potential to be a fairly nasty time with daily declines on the order of 3-5%.
Gold, oil and the Euro will continue on their bullish trends although not as strongly or consistently as in the past couple weeks. The Euro will continue strong but later in the week beginning Wednesday there will be significant declines, perhaps back to 1.51 or lower. Monday and Tuesday will not see any major selloffs. As we said last week, gold is a good bet to move past $1000 this week. Oil is vulnerable to declines this week, so rallies beyond $102 will not likely not last. I think we'll see oil back under $100, at least intermittently through the week and by the close Friday.
I will post some more time-specific revised forecasts through the week.
Tokyo and Bombay's BSE are also headed lower from their present levels. The Nikkei may fare better of the two, although it will seriously retest its January low of 12,572. The Sensex will probably drop below its previous February low of 16,600, especially by Thursday as Mercury and Venus oppose the natal Mars in the BSE chart. It has the potential to be a fairly nasty time with daily declines on the order of 3-5%.
Gold, oil and the Euro will continue on their bullish trends although not as strongly or consistently as in the past couple weeks. The Euro will continue strong but later in the week beginning Wednesday there will be significant declines, perhaps back to 1.51 or lower. Monday and Tuesday will not see any major selloffs. As we said last week, gold is a good bet to move past $1000 this week. Oil is vulnerable to declines this week, so rallies beyond $102 will not likely not last. I think we'll see oil back under $100, at least intermittently through the week and by the close Friday.
I will post some more time-specific revised forecasts through the week.
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