As predicted, American markets took it on the chin today. Yesterday I thought we were in for a significant decline of 1% or more -- we ended up down 2.5%. The Dow finished at 12,266 down 315 points while the S&P closed at 1330 down 37. We're very close now to support levels so next week will be extra tense since more bad news early on may push the market below the floor. We'll see what's in store in my Sunday forecast. As it turns out, I was off in my weekly forecast since we finished down for the week, whereas I thought we would be up a bit but close to Monday's opening price of 12,381. Still, not far off all things considered.
Asian markets finished down as well, with Tokyo closing at 13,603 and Bombay finishing at 17,578. Both closed higher than our forecast (13,600 and 17,000) but certainly Monday's action will be negative and more in keeping with our previous expectations.
The Euro closed the week at 1.518, well above our forecast. We were right in calling for an upward trend, however, but underestimated the loss of faith in the US dollar which closed Friday at 0.655. It's clear that the US dollar may be headed to 0.60 by spring.
Our call for a continued bull markets in oil and gold was also correct, although there, too, we grossly underestimated their strength. Gold ended up another $7 today to close at $975 and oil ended the week down a dollar at 101.66. While both commodities will continue to rise in the coming weeks, I think gold has more upside than oil because of concerns of declining economic activity and corresponding demand reduction.
Friday, February 29, 2008
Thursday, February 28, 2008
NY pulls back
American markets took a breather today, as the Dow closed down 112 to 12,582. That much, at least, we did foresee.
The Euro, oil and gold continued their meteoric rise, however, despite my anticipation to the contrary. All three closed at all-time highs. While I am medium term bullish on all three of these markets, I clearly underestimated the strength that lies within. That strength, of course, is completely rooted the ongoing collapse of the US dollar. With the Sun applying to the natal Jupiter in the gold chart it seems unlikely that we will see a pull back. $1000 is likely next week or the week after as this conjunction perfects while Mercury and Venus apply to the Ascendant. This will be another clue about which gold futures chart is correct by the way. We can watch for when Venus crosses the respective ascendants. The 9.45 am chart has 28 Cap rising which Venus crosses March 6, (this will have the Sun just past the natal Jupiter) and the 10.00 am chart has 4 Aquarius rising which Venus crosses March 11. The Venus conjunction to the ascendant should see a strong rally, regardless if it is past the psychological barrier of $1000. The Sun to Jupiter is also a good indicator of a milestone such as this, so it may well happen in the next 3-4 days. I would bet on March 7 as the most likely day for gold to hit $1000 as the Moon joins the Sun close to Jupiter at 19 Aquarius. I think we're still at least a couple of months away from the top of the gold market.
Tokyo finished lower at 13,900 while the Sensex showed surprising resilience to remain unchanged at 17,824. Both indices will decline tomorrow taking the lead from NY. I think the BSE is likely to have a tougher go of it, however. Looking ahead, I think the general bias on the BSE is negative for the next few months. There may be short lived rallies that may return to current levels (18k), but look for deeper troughs. March 5th seems to be the beginning of the testing of some recent lows at 16,800. I think we will fall below there in March. April looks similarly negative in sentiment.
The Euro, oil and gold continued their meteoric rise, however, despite my anticipation to the contrary. All three closed at all-time highs. While I am medium term bullish on all three of these markets, I clearly underestimated the strength that lies within. That strength, of course, is completely rooted the ongoing collapse of the US dollar. With the Sun applying to the natal Jupiter in the gold chart it seems unlikely that we will see a pull back. $1000 is likely next week or the week after as this conjunction perfects while Mercury and Venus apply to the Ascendant. This will be another clue about which gold futures chart is correct by the way. We can watch for when Venus crosses the respective ascendants. The 9.45 am chart has 28 Cap rising which Venus crosses March 6, (this will have the Sun just past the natal Jupiter) and the 10.00 am chart has 4 Aquarius rising which Venus crosses March 11. The Venus conjunction to the ascendant should see a strong rally, regardless if it is past the psychological barrier of $1000. The Sun to Jupiter is also a good indicator of a milestone such as this, so it may well happen in the next 3-4 days. I would bet on March 7 as the most likely day for gold to hit $1000 as the Moon joins the Sun close to Jupiter at 19 Aquarius. I think we're still at least a couple of months away from the top of the gold market.
Tokyo finished lower at 13,900 while the Sensex showed surprising resilience to remain unchanged at 17,824. Both indices will decline tomorrow taking the lead from NY. I think the BSE is likely to have a tougher go of it, however. Looking ahead, I think the general bias on the BSE is negative for the next few months. There may be short lived rallies that may return to current levels (18k), but look for deeper troughs. March 5th seems to be the beginning of the testing of some recent lows at 16,800. I think we will fall below there in March. April looks similarly negative in sentiment.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Euro climbs higher
Another day, another new high for the Euro, oil and gold as the US dollar continues to plumb the depths in anticipation of further rate cuts from the Fed.
New York markets finished flat as the Dow inched up just 9 pts and the S&P closed down 1. This is in keeping with the middling sentiment I expressed in yesterday's forecast. The market caution I had forecast finally arrived in Bombay as the Sensex finished down, albeit only marginally. I missed on Tokyo as it stayed mostly positive finishing just above 14,000. I believe the fears over the US recession will hit these markets tomorrow more forcefully.
Oil did hit $102 as predicted, although it quickly fell back to $99. I am expecting further declines tomorrow.
Gold powered ever higher to finish at $958 up $10. I missed this move but I still feel that gold is due to fall back to earth Thursday and Friday.
The Euro soared past 1.51, closing at 1.5122. A stunning run that no doubt owes a lot to the Mercury-Venus conjunction activating the natal Uranus in the Euro natal chart. It's past exact now, so I think the rally will run out of steam tomorrow and likely into Friday. I'm expecting the sell-off to be sharp Thursday, possibly taking us back under 1.50 at least temporarily.
New York markets finished flat as the Dow inched up just 9 pts and the S&P closed down 1. This is in keeping with the middling sentiment I expressed in yesterday's forecast. The market caution I had forecast finally arrived in Bombay as the Sensex finished down, albeit only marginally. I missed on Tokyo as it stayed mostly positive finishing just above 14,000. I believe the fears over the US recession will hit these markets tomorrow more forcefully.
Oil did hit $102 as predicted, although it quickly fell back to $99. I am expecting further declines tomorrow.
Gold powered ever higher to finish at $958 up $10. I missed this move but I still feel that gold is due to fall back to earth Thursday and Friday.
The Euro soared past 1.51, closing at 1.5122. A stunning run that no doubt owes a lot to the Mercury-Venus conjunction activating the natal Uranus in the Euro natal chart. It's past exact now, so I think the rally will run out of steam tomorrow and likely into Friday. I'm expecting the sell-off to be sharp Thursday, possibly taking us back under 1.50 at least temporarily.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
US dollar at all-time low
American markets rallied again today as the Dow finished up 114 pts to 12,684 and the S$P added 9 to 1381. I had thought sentiment would turn negative today so our outlook missed the mark. Tomorrow will probably start strong but it may finish under water. I am not taking a firm stand either way, however.
Tokyo finished lower by 90 points to close at 13,824 as Monday's rally didn't hold while the BSE found some momentum and managed to add 156 to 17,806. These markets are vulnerable to declines Wednesday.
The big news of the day was the all-time low for the greenback at 0.6677 and the Euro hitting 1.50 for the first time. This is in keeping with our bullish forecast for the Euro. I expect it to go higher the rest of the week and linger at or above 1.50, although some retracements are likely.
Oil hit $100.88, also a new all-time high and is higher in Asia in Wednesday morning trading. It will probably move decisively towards $102.
Gold rallied as predicted hitting $948 in New York trading and is now moving towards $955 overseas. I think one more up day is possible (but not bankable), after which expect some serious consolidation, perhaps down below $930.
Tokyo finished lower by 90 points to close at 13,824 as Monday's rally didn't hold while the BSE found some momentum and managed to add 156 to 17,806. These markets are vulnerable to declines Wednesday.
The big news of the day was the all-time low for the greenback at 0.6677 and the Euro hitting 1.50 for the first time. This is in keeping with our bullish forecast for the Euro. I expect it to go higher the rest of the week and linger at or above 1.50, although some retracements are likely.
Oil hit $100.88, also a new all-time high and is higher in Asia in Wednesday morning trading. It will probably move decisively towards $102.
Gold rallied as predicted hitting $948 in New York trading and is now moving towards $955 overseas. I think one more up day is possible (but not bankable), after which expect some serious consolidation, perhaps down below $930.
Monday, February 25, 2008
A bullish Monday
World markets were up across the board Monday, more or less in keeping with our forecast for a bullish opening to the week. The Dow closed 189 pts higher at 12,570 while the S&P finished up 18 pts at 1371. Bombay and Tokyo were also up significantly in keeping with the forecast. Tokyo has opened Tuesday trading above 14,000 on the Nikkei for the first time in several weeks. The Sensex closed at 17,650 up 301 points.
Oil climbed to over $99 while gold pulled back to $938. Gold failed to rally as forecast, so tomorrow looks like a better candidate to pass $950.
The Euro held its own today closing at 1.483 against the dollar. Our prediction of a midday sell-off largely came true as the Euro declined starting after 11.00 CET and tested the 1.48 level over the next couple hours.
While Asian markets may eke out another up day Tuesday, I think the American markets will be mixed at best and likely headed lower by the end of trading.
Oil climbed to over $99 while gold pulled back to $938. Gold failed to rally as forecast, so tomorrow looks like a better candidate to pass $950.
The Euro held its own today closing at 1.483 against the dollar. Our prediction of a midday sell-off largely came true as the Euro declined starting after 11.00 CET and tested the 1.48 level over the next couple hours.
While Asian markets may eke out another up day Tuesday, I think the American markets will be mixed at best and likely headed lower by the end of trading.
Sunday, February 24, 2008
Market Forecast -- week of Feb 25-29
American markets have been trading within a fairly narrow range for the past few weeks. This will continue this week. The best days will probably be Monday and Tuesdaywhere may see 12,600 on the Dow and 1380 on the S&P on an intraday basis. The mood will turn negative on Wednesday and Thursday as the market will retreat back to those old familiar support levels we saw tested last week. Friday should start with a good rally as the Moon is in good aspect to Jupiter, but the indicators are mixed to negative after that, so short term traders would be advised to sell while the market is rising in the morning. Overall, I think the market will finish close to where it started the week (12,381/1353) but I think we're more likely to finish higher.
Tokyo will probably end the week a little lower. Monday looks positive, as does Friday, but in between we will see some declines. The Wednesday open stands out as a substantial sell-off. Overall, we are likely to see a retesting of 13,000 on the Nikkei but may finish in the 13,300 to 13,600 range.
Bombay's best days of the week will also likely be Monday and Friday, but it will be tough sledding to keep the Sensex above its current level of 17,369 by Friday. Probably we will finish below that level around 17,000. The best chance for a midweek rally is Wednesday, although this will lose some strength at the close. Thursday's close will likely be negative as Moon squares Saturn.
The Euro will likely continue its rally this week and finish above its current levels of 1.485. It will go above 1.49 at some point and may even touch 1.495, although it may occasionally slip below 1.48. Look for a sell-off Monday at midday CET as the Moon aspects Saturn. The best rally of the week will probably be Wednesday late afternoon CET.
Oil will likely push through $100 again this week, but this time it will probably hold above that psychological threshold. Prices will retreat Monday morning EST, but then move higher from there. Thursday looks like a day of consolidation with the rally resuming Friday.
Gold is rallying lately but I think sentiment will turn more cautious this week. The best rallies are likely Monday or Tuesday, both early in the day EST. We will probably close about $950 on one or both of those days. But the rest of the week looks less optimistic, so I think we'll probably finish the week below $940.
Tokyo will probably end the week a little lower. Monday looks positive, as does Friday, but in between we will see some declines. The Wednesday open stands out as a substantial sell-off. Overall, we are likely to see a retesting of 13,000 on the Nikkei but may finish in the 13,300 to 13,600 range.
Bombay's best days of the week will also likely be Monday and Friday, but it will be tough sledding to keep the Sensex above its current level of 17,369 by Friday. Probably we will finish below that level around 17,000. The best chance for a midweek rally is Wednesday, although this will lose some strength at the close. Thursday's close will likely be negative as Moon squares Saturn.
The Euro will likely continue its rally this week and finish above its current levels of 1.485. It will go above 1.49 at some point and may even touch 1.495, although it may occasionally slip below 1.48. Look for a sell-off Monday at midday CET as the Moon aspects Saturn. The best rally of the week will probably be Wednesday late afternoon CET.
Oil will likely push through $100 again this week, but this time it will probably hold above that psychological threshold. Prices will retreat Monday morning EST, but then move higher from there. Thursday looks like a day of consolidation with the rally resuming Friday.
Gold is rallying lately but I think sentiment will turn more cautious this week. The best rallies are likely Monday or Tuesday, both early in the day EST. We will probably close about $950 on one or both of those days. But the rest of the week looks less optimistic, so I think we'll probably finish the week below $940.
Saturday, February 23, 2008
Market review -- week fo Feb 18-22
After Friday's jaw-dropping 200 pt rally at 3.15 in New York, the
markets finished up for the day and up slightly for the week as well.
Yesterday, I thought the markets would not escape another negative day
but buyers came in at the close as the indices bounce off their support
levels yet again. The Dow finished at 12,381, up just 33 points for the
week while the S&P ended up at 1353, up just 4 points. While I can't be
proud of my intraday week daily forecasts, I can at least claim (just
barely) that our weekly outlook was correct again as the markets closed
higher although missing our target of 12,500/1360. We did test the
upper reaches of the support level (12,150/1330) through Friday's
trading but never fell through.
Tokyo finished the week down 1% as the Nikkei closed at 13,500 on the
nose. Again, my intraweek dynamics were not very accurate as Wednesday
was the worst day with the market closing at 13,300. Our forecast
called for a slight upweek came up short as well, so all in all, nothing
to write home about. Fortunately, I was less than enthusiastic about
the prospects so in the end we were not that divergent from the market's
final performance.
Bombay was down 4% for the week and finished at 17,349. The big down
days were Wednesday and Friday. Here I underestimated the negative
impact of the lunar eclipse and also placed too much positive value on
the approaching Venus-Mercury conjunction that will occur over the
weekend.
The Euro was our shining success story for the week as it finished
strong, closing at 1.4825 USD. Our intraweek revised forecast correctly
called the high on Friday, with the Euro touching 1.485. We had thought
1.48 was likely and 1.49 was possible, so that is well within range.
We also correctly forecast Monday as the big down day and Wednesday
afternoon as another decline.
We called gold's big run-up this week more or less on the money as gold
futures closed Friday at $944, up over $40. Monday was weak and prices
stagnated near $900. The rally really got going after that and our
price target of $920 was easily achieved. Our intraweek revised
forecast correctly called the Friday close between $940 and $950.
Our forecast for oil's rise was also correct, as crude futures got to
$101.32 Wednesday before settling back to under $99 on Friday. Our
daily forecasts still need some work however as we thought Wednesday
would be a down day. Next week should see $100 again if only temporarily.
markets finished up for the day and up slightly for the week as well.
Yesterday, I thought the markets would not escape another negative day
but buyers came in at the close as the indices bounce off their support
levels yet again. The Dow finished at 12,381, up just 33 points for the
week while the S&P ended up at 1353, up just 4 points. While I can't be
proud of my intraday week daily forecasts, I can at least claim (just
barely) that our weekly outlook was correct again as the markets closed
higher although missing our target of 12,500/1360. We did test the
upper reaches of the support level (12,150/1330) through Friday's
trading but never fell through.
Tokyo finished the week down 1% as the Nikkei closed at 13,500 on the
nose. Again, my intraweek dynamics were not very accurate as Wednesday
was the worst day with the market closing at 13,300. Our forecast
called for a slight upweek came up short as well, so all in all, nothing
to write home about. Fortunately, I was less than enthusiastic about
the prospects so in the end we were not that divergent from the market's
final performance.
Bombay was down 4% for the week and finished at 17,349. The big down
days were Wednesday and Friday. Here I underestimated the negative
impact of the lunar eclipse and also placed too much positive value on
the approaching Venus-Mercury conjunction that will occur over the
weekend.
The Euro was our shining success story for the week as it finished
strong, closing at 1.4825 USD. Our intraweek revised forecast correctly
called the high on Friday, with the Euro touching 1.485. We had thought
1.48 was likely and 1.49 was possible, so that is well within range.
We also correctly forecast Monday as the big down day and Wednesday
afternoon as another decline.
We called gold's big run-up this week more or less on the money as gold
futures closed Friday at $944, up over $40. Monday was weak and prices
stagnated near $900. The rally really got going after that and our
price target of $920 was easily achieved. Our intraweek revised
forecast correctly called the Friday close between $940 and $950.
Our forecast for oil's rise was also correct, as crude futures got to
$101.32 Wednesday before settling back to under $99 on Friday. Our
daily forecasts still need some work however as we thought Wednesday
would be a down day. Next week should see $100 again if only temporarily.
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Lunar Eclipse Blues
The American markets decline over 1% today on weak manufacturing news. It seems the eclipse had more of a negative impact that I had forecast. The proximity of Saturn obviously did nothing to boost investor confidence, and I am thinking that we will start to see some serious intraday testing of the 12,000 support on the Dow and 1320 on the S&P. The other part of the story Thursday was the perfection of the Venus to natal Rahu aspect which I had hoped would propel us higher, although I was not at all confident of this outcome. It turned out that Venus in debilitation in Virgo falling under the aspect of Rahu was simply too much to bear, especially with the Moon-Saturn conjunction thrown in for good measure. I am not optimistic for Friday, nor Monday for that matter. I think we will likely break down through the key support now, even if there will be a recovery by March 3. I will reassess the next week's prospects after reviewing Friday's trading. I was a bit squeamish about my overall up prediction this week and now I know why.
The BSE limped through Thursday as the early rally went nowhere and the SENSEX finally at 17, 734. It will be a brutal opening in Bombay Friday but the market may climb back part way near the close as the Moon enters Virgo but it will still finish deep in the red.
While oil pulled back under $99 the new April contract, gold continued its move upwards, as it briefly touched $955 before settling back to $945. Profit taking in gold is likely tomorrow as we have predicted. Oil still looks poised to go higher, although the bigger moves will probably occur Monday and Tuesday.
The Euro finally took that bold rise we had forecast as it broke through 1.48 as high as 1.483. The US dollar slumped to 0.6755. The Euro is down in after hours trading and this down trend will continue through tomorrow at least until noon CET. Look for a small Euro rally after American markets open which may push it back up towards 1.48.
Today's drop is a good reminder that this market isn't a safe place for medium or long term investors. Whatever rallies we may get in the next few weeks, there isn't enough upside potential to risk getting sideswiped by sudden plunges when the full extent of the fallout of the credit crunch becomes known. I would be very cautious about taking any significant long positions in stocks right now.
The BSE limped through Thursday as the early rally went nowhere and the SENSEX finally at 17, 734. It will be a brutal opening in Bombay Friday but the market may climb back part way near the close as the Moon enters Virgo but it will still finish deep in the red.
While oil pulled back under $99 the new April contract, gold continued its move upwards, as it briefly touched $955 before settling back to $945. Profit taking in gold is likely tomorrow as we have predicted. Oil still looks poised to go higher, although the bigger moves will probably occur Monday and Tuesday.
The Euro finally took that bold rise we had forecast as it broke through 1.48 as high as 1.483. The US dollar slumped to 0.6755. The Euro is down in after hours trading and this down trend will continue through tomorrow at least until noon CET. Look for a small Euro rally after American markets open which may push it back up towards 1.48.
Today's drop is a good reminder that this market isn't a safe place for medium or long term investors. Whatever rallies we may get in the next few weeks, there isn't enough upside potential to risk getting sideswiped by sudden plunges when the full extent of the fallout of the credit crunch becomes known. I would be very cautious about taking any significant long positions in stocks right now.
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
NY rally right on time
A very nice rally in New York today right on schedule at noon as the market shook off an almost 100 point morning loss and went straight up from there. The Dow finished up 90 pts at 12,427 while S&P closed up 11 at 1360. As I forecasted on Sunday, the midday Wednesday rally would correspond with the transiting Moon in partile11th house aspect with the natal Jupiter of the NYSE chart while no other negative planetary influences were present. We'll probably start Thursday lower but I'm cautiously bullish for the rest of the week, but it might be a good idea to sell into any rallies Thursday or Friday. In a perfect world, we might see the Dow try for the 12,750 resistance level. 1370 on the S&P seems like a foregone conclusion.
Bombay closed lower Wednesday but will certainly find ample fuel for an upturn on the heels of the New York's bullish performance.
As I thought, gold powered upwards to $940 Wednesday. The only question is: how high will it go this week? This is an explosive market right now, so $950-960 is now possible. Again, I would try to take profits late Thursday or early Friday since it seems like there will be a pullback then.
Oil hit a new all-time high Wednesday, topping out at 101.30 intraday before settling back under $100 for the April futures contract. Oil will go higher still.
The Euro has not performed as expected, however. It didn't build on Tuesday's gains and fell back a bit to 1.4713. Thursday may be difficult especially in the early going (CET) as the Moon joins Saturn in the Euro's 12th house, so it may slip under 1.47. I'm still looking for decent gains Friday to put back over 1.47 and then some as the Moon finds the shining light of Jupiter.
Bombay closed lower Wednesday but will certainly find ample fuel for an upturn on the heels of the New York's bullish performance.
As I thought, gold powered upwards to $940 Wednesday. The only question is: how high will it go this week? This is an explosive market right now, so $950-960 is now possible. Again, I would try to take profits late Thursday or early Friday since it seems like there will be a pullback then.
Oil hit a new all-time high Wednesday, topping out at 101.30 intraday before settling back under $100 for the April futures contract. Oil will go higher still.
The Euro has not performed as expected, however. It didn't build on Tuesday's gains and fell back a bit to 1.4713. Thursday may be difficult especially in the early going (CET) as the Moon joins Saturn in the Euro's 12th house, so it may slip under 1.47. I'm still looking for decent gains Friday to put back over 1.47 and then some as the Moon finds the shining light of Jupiter.
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Oil and Gold rise
Oil closed over $100 today for the first time. This exceeded my expectations in terms of price and timing but at least I got the direction right. Look for prices to continue to climb into the weekend. We could see $105 or even $110.
The NYSE rally couldn't hold today, despite being up for much of the day. I am looking for a more reliable rally tomorrow.
Similarly, gold had a big day as it closed up $24 finishing in NY at $928. I was too conservative and late in my prediction for a rally. The rest of the week looks strong, possibly going as high as $940-$950. Friday will see a decline.
We correctly called the decline in the BSE SENSEX Tuesday afternoon as the gains in the a.m. were lost. We've also been spot on in regards to the tentativeness of the market so far this week which has been essentially flat at both closes. We're sticking to our call for some significant rallies for the rest of the week.
And as predicted, Monday was tough for the Euro, as it touched 1.462 intraday. Tuesday it did come back very strong, finishing at 1.473. The US dollar is sitting at 0.678 now. The Euro almost certainly rise the rest of the week. 1.48 is probable, and even 1.49 is possible.
The NYSE rally couldn't hold today, despite being up for much of the day. I am looking for a more reliable rally tomorrow.
Similarly, gold had a big day as it closed up $24 finishing in NY at $928. I was too conservative and late in my prediction for a rally. The rest of the week looks strong, possibly going as high as $940-$950. Friday will see a decline.
We correctly called the decline in the BSE SENSEX Tuesday afternoon as the gains in the a.m. were lost. We've also been spot on in regards to the tentativeness of the market so far this week which has been essentially flat at both closes. We're sticking to our call for some significant rallies for the rest of the week.
And as predicted, Monday was tough for the Euro, as it touched 1.462 intraday. Tuesday it did come back very strong, finishing at 1.473. The US dollar is sitting at 0.678 now. The Euro almost certainly rise the rest of the week. 1.48 is probable, and even 1.49 is possible.
Sunday, February 17, 2008
Market Forecast -- week of Feb 18-22
Last week we successfully called the up week for the American markets. This week looks more iffy though, so I think the market will struggle to maintain its current levels of Dow 12,348 and S&P 1349. It will may drop below support levels of 12,200 and 1320 on an intraday basis early in the week. Monday afternoon looks bad, but Wednesday at midday looks good and this may signal a reverse of market sentiment for the rest of the week. I'm less certain about the final levels of the NY market this week, but going out on a limb, I would say that they will finish up, perhaps making it to13,500 on the Dow and 1360 on the S&P.
Tokyo is coming off a decent week as forecasted here when it finished at 13,622. I'm less sanguine about the NIKKEI this week however as the Sun-Saturn opposition will fall very close to the Asc-Dsc of the Topix index chart while Sun will oppose the natal Saturn in the TSE chart. But there is a battle here since Venus will conjoin the natal Jupiter at the same time, on Feb 19-20. My sense is the negativity of the Sun-Saturn will push the market down on Monday and Tuesday, but on Wednesday, the market will recover. So we'll probably drop back to 13,000 early on, and then recover and perhaps exceed 13,600 by week's end. Friday looks good, so we will probably finish higher than last Friday's close. This chart is not looking good for May however, as Saturn will station on its natal position. Be afraid, be very afraid.
Bombay's SENSEX was up last week, and finished at 18,115. The good times will likely continue through this week, although early in the week looks more tentative. Tuesday could be a down day however, as a decline will hit the market in the afternoon IST. Thursday and Friday look better, and we may see the index climb past 19,000. Monday and Tuesday of the following week will see big up days so staying long over the weekend will likely pay off handsomely.
The Euro is coming off its best week in months. I expect it to drop significantly Monday, maybe back to 1.46 as the US dollar will strengthen to 0.685. But the basic trend will be upwards this week. If buying on dips, another drop is likely Wednesday morning EST. The high will occur on Friday, although I don't see it eclipsing last Friday's high of 1.4685 by much. I think the medium term rally is still in place for the Euro at least until April 5 (to 1.50?), after which a major decline is likely.
Gold is probably going to start the week slowly. Some pullbacks below $900 are likely, especially in Asia Monday morning (local time) and Tuesday morning in NY. Venus will be square natal Uranus on Tuesday, so that points to a volatile price that may enjoy short but ultimately weak rallies that do not hold. Prices will rise by Thursday, however, so that should put us convincingly over $900 and probably back approaching $920 by Friday. It could even go higher, so the trend is your friend. Look for the week's high to occur midday Friday in New York EST. The week after looks even better.
Oil is likely to continue its recent upward climb this week. Mercury is stationing at the Sun-Jupiter midpoint while Jupiter will trine the natal Venus exactly this week. The biggest price rise will probably happen on Tuesday morning EST. We may see oil go past $97 a barrel then. Wednesday will see a pullback, probably back close below $95. Look for a higher short term peak early in the following week on Feb 25-26. $100 is very possible in the next two weeks.
Tokyo is coming off a decent week as forecasted here when it finished at 13,622. I'm less sanguine about the NIKKEI this week however as the Sun-Saturn opposition will fall very close to the Asc-Dsc of the Topix index chart while Sun will oppose the natal Saturn in the TSE chart. But there is a battle here since Venus will conjoin the natal Jupiter at the same time, on Feb 19-20. My sense is the negativity of the Sun-Saturn will push the market down on Monday and Tuesday, but on Wednesday, the market will recover. So we'll probably drop back to 13,000 early on, and then recover and perhaps exceed 13,600 by week's end. Friday looks good, so we will probably finish higher than last Friday's close. This chart is not looking good for May however, as Saturn will station on its natal position. Be afraid, be very afraid.
Bombay's SENSEX was up last week, and finished at 18,115. The good times will likely continue through this week, although early in the week looks more tentative. Tuesday could be a down day however, as a decline will hit the market in the afternoon IST. Thursday and Friday look better, and we may see the index climb past 19,000. Monday and Tuesday of the following week will see big up days so staying long over the weekend will likely pay off handsomely.
The Euro is coming off its best week in months. I expect it to drop significantly Monday, maybe back to 1.46 as the US dollar will strengthen to 0.685. But the basic trend will be upwards this week. If buying on dips, another drop is likely Wednesday morning EST. The high will occur on Friday, although I don't see it eclipsing last Friday's high of 1.4685 by much. I think the medium term rally is still in place for the Euro at least until April 5 (to 1.50?), after which a major decline is likely.
Gold is probably going to start the week slowly. Some pullbacks below $900 are likely, especially in Asia Monday morning (local time) and Tuesday morning in NY. Venus will be square natal Uranus on Tuesday, so that points to a volatile price that may enjoy short but ultimately weak rallies that do not hold. Prices will rise by Thursday, however, so that should put us convincingly over $900 and probably back approaching $920 by Friday. It could even go higher, so the trend is your friend. Look for the week's high to occur midday Friday in New York EST. The week after looks even better.
Oil is likely to continue its recent upward climb this week. Mercury is stationing at the Sun-Jupiter midpoint while Jupiter will trine the natal Venus exactly this week. The biggest price rise will probably happen on Tuesday morning EST. We may see oil go past $97 a barrel then. Wednesday will see a pullback, probably back close below $95. Look for a higher short term peak early in the following week on Feb 25-26. $100 is very possible in the next two weeks.
Saturday, February 16, 2008
Market Review -- week of Feb 11-15
All in all, the markets mostly went our way this week. I had forecast and up week in NY and the Dow rose from 12,181 to 12,384 and the S&P from 1331 to 1349. While I got the Monday afternoon rally right, I was mostly off on the intraweek action. I had thought a rally was due late Wednesday and Thursday when it fact it had already hit the weekly highs by then. We did, however, manage to reach our forecast highs above 12,500 and 1360 for an extended period midweek. I am also pleased that the markets rallied as predicted through the afternoon and at the close on Friday. I had hoped this would put them in the green for the day but the Dow finished slightly just short while the S&P was up a single point.
Tokyo also largely followed our game plan as it finished up on the week rising from 13,000 on the NIKKEI to finish at 13,622. Our forecast was also correct on the intraweek trends as the markets were flat Monday and Tuesday and then rose at the end of the week. Our target had been 13,500 for the week so that Friday close was quite a nice call.
Bombay followed this same pattern and we hit the brutal Monday selloff right on the money. The SENSEX bottomed out at 16,500 Monday and Tuesday and then came back strongly at the end of the week to finish at 18,115. My main disappointment here for me was missing the Friday rally of 348 pts as I had predicted a down day. Overall though, the weekly market direction fell within our margin of error.
The Euro had its best week in many months as it peaked at the close Friday at 1.4685 as the US dollar approached the psychological 0.68 support level. While I was correct in forecasting an up week for the Euro, I underestimated its strength. Happily, my revised forecast on Tuesday did correctly predict a testing of the 0.68 level.
I was also largely correct on Gold this week as it fell back towards the end of the week, closing Friday at $901. I had forecast that it could test the $900 level with the Mercury Ketu aspect at the end of the week which is precisely what happened. I mistakenly forecast an up day Monday, however, which turned out to be a barely noticeable $4 gain during early trading after which the price fell. Generally, though, I was pleased with my forecast in terms of market direction and the particulars of intraweek action.
Tokyo also largely followed our game plan as it finished up on the week rising from 13,000 on the NIKKEI to finish at 13,622. Our forecast was also correct on the intraweek trends as the markets were flat Monday and Tuesday and then rose at the end of the week. Our target had been 13,500 for the week so that Friday close was quite a nice call.
Bombay followed this same pattern and we hit the brutal Monday selloff right on the money. The SENSEX bottomed out at 16,500 Monday and Tuesday and then came back strongly at the end of the week to finish at 18,115. My main disappointment here for me was missing the Friday rally of 348 pts as I had predicted a down day. Overall though, the weekly market direction fell within our margin of error.
The Euro had its best week in many months as it peaked at the close Friday at 1.4685 as the US dollar approached the psychological 0.68 support level. While I was correct in forecasting an up week for the Euro, I underestimated its strength. Happily, my revised forecast on Tuesday did correctly predict a testing of the 0.68 level.
I was also largely correct on Gold this week as it fell back towards the end of the week, closing Friday at $901. I had forecast that it could test the $900 level with the Mercury Ketu aspect at the end of the week which is precisely what happened. I mistakenly forecast an up day Monday, however, which turned out to be a barely noticeable $4 gain during early trading after which the price fell. Generally, though, I was pleased with my forecast in terms of market direction and the particulars of intraweek action.
Thursday, February 14, 2008
A bucket of cold water
Tough day on the American markets today as the Dow lost 175 points to finish at 12,376 while the S&P closed lower at 1348. Bernanke reminded us that we can't simply will the indexes higher if the economy is going into the dumper. So we're still within that narrow trading range (1320-1360) that we outlined in the weekly outlook. Tomorrow we should end the week on a winning note as the Moon floats through the NYSE 11th house of gains with a rally at the close. Also look for a nice rally right at noon.
Bombay will be down as it digests the negative news from the US markets negative Thursday performance. The opening should be pretty grim but watch for a rally to emerge by 11.45 am and continue through the noon hour. A retracement down at 2.00 pm is possible with a nice closing rally after 3.15 pm. (all times local)
As predicted the Euro is having a good week against the US dollar finishing Thursday at 1.4635. Friday is probably going to be less, if any, upside for the Euro, so I think the greenback will hold above the 0.68 level.
The week has gone as expected with gold giving back a lot of last week's gains finishing at $913. Friday looks pretty negative especially from Asian and European trading. When NY opens, the price may recover somewhat in the afternoon but going under $900 is very possible in the morning.
Bombay will be down as it digests the negative news from the US markets negative Thursday performance. The opening should be pretty grim but watch for a rally to emerge by 11.45 am and continue through the noon hour. A retracement down at 2.00 pm is possible with a nice closing rally after 3.15 pm. (all times local)
As predicted the Euro is having a good week against the US dollar finishing Thursday at 1.4635. Friday is probably going to be less, if any, upside for the Euro, so I think the greenback will hold above the 0.68 level.
The week has gone as expected with gold giving back a lot of last week's gains finishing at $913. Friday looks pretty negative especially from Asian and European trading. When NY opens, the price may recover somewhat in the afternoon but going under $900 is very possible in the morning.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
upward and onward
Some solid 1% gains on the American markets today. The Dow finished at 12,373 and the S&P at 1348. So far, so good.
Bombay finished unchanged, a welcome stabilization of prices after Monday's selloff. This sets up what should be a good day on Wednesday that ought to fulfill our forecast. Gold was down $15 to $911 in the wake of the Venus conjunction to natal Venus. Our forecast has gold finishing below Monday's open, so that negative trend should hold.
The Euro was up slightly on Tuesday. I'm looking for bigger gains starting tomorrow as the US dollar will likely fall back to 0.68 or below.
Bombay finished unchanged, a welcome stabilization of prices after Monday's selloff. This sets up what should be a good day on Wednesday that ought to fulfill our forecast. Gold was down $15 to $911 in the wake of the Venus conjunction to natal Venus. Our forecast has gold finishing below Monday's open, so that negative trend should hold.
The Euro was up slightly on Tuesday. I'm looking for bigger gains starting tomorrow as the US dollar will likely fall back to 0.68 or below.
Monday, February 11, 2008
Steady as she goes
American markets ended modestly higher today, more or less in keeping with our forecast. The Dow closed at 12, 240 and the S&P at 1339. The late day rally I forecast was barely noticeable.
Bombay was sharply lower as forecast, as the Sensex dropped 700 pts to 16,630. The Euro was flat against our prediction, holding on to 1.45 and gold was modestly higher by $4. This was less than forecast but at least the direction was correct. The price has stabilized in after hours trading at around $922. Let's see if gold can rally Tuesday as it unleashed that positive Venus to Venus energy.
Tokyo was closed Monday.
Bombay was sharply lower as forecast, as the Sensex dropped 700 pts to 16,630. The Euro was flat against our prediction, holding on to 1.45 and gold was modestly higher by $4. This was less than forecast but at least the direction was correct. The price has stabilized in after hours trading at around $922. Let's see if gold can rally Tuesday as it unleashed that positive Venus to Venus energy.
Tokyo was closed Monday.
Sunday, February 10, 2008
Market Forecast: week of Feb 11-15
The markets aren't likely to breakout of their current range this week. In New York, the early part of the week looks uncommitted, with minimal testing on the downside and modest rally attempts. I don't foresee the indices falling through current support levels, however. Expect to see a decent rally near the close Monday. With a broader rally starting by late Wednesday or early Thursday, we may see highs above 12,500 on the Dow and perhaps 1360-1380 on the S&P. I am forecasting a generally up week.
The Japanese market looks pretty uninspired this week, although Thursday and Friday should see some gains as tr. Venus conjoins the natal Moon and trines Jupiter. But the general planetary architecture suggests any rallies won't get too far. I expect the market to move between 12.8K and 13.5K with the latter figure representing a target for the Friday close. Next week's Mercury station squares the natal Saturn in the natal chart, so we can look for lows to punch through the 13K support level then and test the January lows of 12.6K.
Bombay will follow the basic trend of negative to even start to the week (Monday looks the worst) and then look for an move upward Wednesday by midday. Thursday looks positive with a possibility of some profit taking Friday.
Euro will start the week continuing its recent fall against the greenback. It may fall as low as 1.44. Wednesday there will be a turnaround rally that stretches into Thursday, so we can expect to see it back above 1.45 at least. Thursday morning EST appears to be a high. Friday may be a day of consolidation.
Gold will open the week strong with a decent gain as Venus returns to its natal position. But the rest of week looks indifferent with tr. Mercury falling under Ketu's aspect, so a pullback below $900 is possible.
The Japanese market looks pretty uninspired this week, although Thursday and Friday should see some gains as tr. Venus conjoins the natal Moon and trines Jupiter. But the general planetary architecture suggests any rallies won't get too far. I expect the market to move between 12.8K and 13.5K with the latter figure representing a target for the Friday close. Next week's Mercury station squares the natal Saturn in the natal chart, so we can look for lows to punch through the 13K support level then and test the January lows of 12.6K.
Bombay will follow the basic trend of negative to even start to the week (Monday looks the worst) and then look for an move upward Wednesday by midday. Thursday looks positive with a possibility of some profit taking Friday.
Euro will start the week continuing its recent fall against the greenback. It may fall as low as 1.44. Wednesday there will be a turnaround rally that stretches into Thursday, so we can expect to see it back above 1.45 at least. Thursday morning EST appears to be a high. Friday may be a day of consolidation.
Gold will open the week strong with a decent gain as Venus returns to its natal position. But the rest of week looks indifferent with tr. Mercury falling under Ketu's aspect, so a pullback below $900 is possible.
Friday, February 8, 2008
Markets end the week quietly
Well not much action on American markets today as the major indices sank on the open and stayed in the red through the day, ending down 0.5%. The end of the day rally I forecast was fairly tepid but at least pulled the markets off their mid-day lows. The Dow finished at 12,182 and the S&P at 1331.
This is basically in line with my weekly forecast which called for a down week which it was -- major indices were down about 4%. On Sunday, I had forecast the Dow ending the week at 12,200-12,400 and the S&P at 1320-1340.
Tokyo followed the NY lead and went lower, against my prediction for gently higher prices. That one counts as an out and out miss.
My call on the bearish direction of the Euro was essentially correct although it sold off more sharply than I expected. It ended up at $1.45
On gold, I was overly bearish but at least got the intraweek trends right as the Friday rally pushed it back to $922. The fact that gold can still shake off some bad transits and end the week higher than it started is a sign we're still in a bull market for gold. The only question is: for how much longer?
This is basically in line with my weekly forecast which called for a down week which it was -- major indices were down about 4%. On Sunday, I had forecast the Dow ending the week at 12,200-12,400 and the S&P at 1320-1340.
Tokyo followed the NY lead and went lower, against my prediction for gently higher prices. That one counts as an out and out miss.
My call on the bearish direction of the Euro was essentially correct although it sold off more sharply than I expected. It ended up at $1.45
On gold, I was overly bearish but at least got the intraweek trends right as the Friday rally pushed it back to $922. The fact that gold can still shake off some bad transits and end the week higher than it started is a sign we're still in a bull market for gold. The only question is: for how much longer?
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Head Above Water
The American markets finished modestly up on the day with the Dow at 12 267 and the S&P at 1336. This was a little better than I thought they would do, although the basic pattern to the price action was as expected : down in the morning by more than 1% and recovering in the afternoon. As it turned out, the markets were only in negative territory for an hour or so, so the day ended more bullish.
This is a clue that Venus transiting over the 6th house of the NYSE chart is more resilient than I had anticipated. This is perhaps due to the alignment of Sun, Venus, and Uranus at around 23-24 degrees of their respective signs. Still, a negative opening is possible as the Moon opposes Saturn. The market should recover after that. The close looks pretty strong as Moon and Jupiter enter into a closer sextile. The wild card here is the Sun as it crosses the Descendant applying to conjoin Neptune, which is likely a bearish influence. I don't think this will be sufficiently malefic to force the markets into the red. So overall, it should be an up day.
This is a clue that Venus transiting over the 6th house of the NYSE chart is more resilient than I had anticipated. This is perhaps due to the alignment of Sun, Venus, and Uranus at around 23-24 degrees of their respective signs. Still, a negative opening is possible as the Moon opposes Saturn. The market should recover after that. The close looks pretty strong as Moon and Jupiter enter into a closer sextile. The wild card here is the Sun as it crosses the Descendant applying to conjoin Neptune, which is likely a bearish influence. I don't think this will be sufficiently malefic to force the markets into the red. So overall, it should be an up day.
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Good morning, bad afternoon
Just as we thought, that Moon-Jupiter alignment kept prices buoyant in the morning, but the NY markets took on water in the afternoon, finishing about 0.5% down. Support levels held at 12,2000 on the Dow and 1340 on the S&P.
Tomorrow the Sun lines up exactly opposite the natal Uranus suggesting more volatility and heavy volume. The solar eclipse puts an exclamation point there. I think much of the negativity connected with that aspect may have spent itself on Monday however. Still with Venus approaching the equal 6th house cusp, I would think a weak opening is likely with >1% decline possible. The afternoon, however, should see a rally that gets us almost back to where we started.
Let's see if the markets can get through the week without falling through 12K/1320.
Tomorrow the Sun lines up exactly opposite the natal Uranus suggesting more volatility and heavy volume. The solar eclipse puts an exclamation point there. I think much of the negativity connected with that aspect may have spent itself on Monday however. Still with Venus approaching the equal 6th house cusp, I would think a weak opening is likely with >1% decline possible. The afternoon, however, should see a rally that gets us almost back to where we started.
Let's see if the markets can get through the week without falling through 12K/1320.
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
American Markets drop 3%
Tough day on American markets Tuesday. But pretty much as forecast, although the decline may have been a day earlier than I thought. Mercury opposite the NYSE Uranus is definitely part of the immediate problem.
The Moon is semisextile to Jupiter tomorrow morning EST so that ought to give a boost to markets. I seriously doubt if any gains will hold through the afternoon however. Huge volatility as Sun applies to oppose Uranus as well. I would expect intraday lows well below Dow 12,200/ SPX 1320 (perhaps 12,000). No certainties on the close, but a Dow below 12,200 is very possible.
Transiting Mercury is key here since the chart is running Sat-Sun-Mer dasha. It will switch over to Sa-Su-Ke on Feb 11 according to the Krishnamurti ayanamsha. Ketu subsubperiod begins in another three weeks according to Lahiri.
The Moon is semisextile to Jupiter tomorrow morning EST so that ought to give a boost to markets. I seriously doubt if any gains will hold through the afternoon however. Huge volatility as Sun applies to oppose Uranus as well. I would expect intraday lows well below Dow 12,200/ SPX 1320 (perhaps 12,000). No certainties on the close, but a Dow below 12,200 is very possible.
Transiting Mercury is key here since the chart is running Sat-Sun-Mer dasha. It will switch over to Sa-Su-Ke on Feb 11 according to the Krishnamurti ayanamsha. Ketu subsubperiod begins in another three weeks according to Lahiri.
Monday, February 4, 2008
Market Forecast week of Feb 4-8
I'm happy to say that last week went more or less according to plan. I thought the markets would end higher and they did, by about 4-5%. The best weekly performance in several years. The Dow started the week at 12,200 and ended at 12,750. I had forecast at least 12,500 and possibly hitting 12,800. I was somewhat off in my day timing however, since I thought Wed and Thur would be the nice gains. As it was, the gains came Thurs and Fri. Monday was also a good up day. My call on the Euro was broadly correct since it was largely up against the US dollar although it did finish lower on Friday as forecast at 1.48. This was a little higher than I thought since I had thought it would settle back to 1.475. But at least I got the direction right.
This week will be more tentative all around. I do not expect the Dow to maintain this level (12,850) by Friday as the negative indicators outnumber the positive.. There will probably be an intraday retesting of last week's levels at 12,200 (1320 on the S&P) and a down mood will predominate. Monday the 4th afternoon looks negative, while Wednesday and Thursday (6th and 7th) look very volatile and largely negative as transiting Sun and Mercury oppose the natal Uranus and Ascendant in the NYSE chart. Look for greater than 1% declines, especially on Wednesday. Thursday afternoon will probably be less of a decline as there will be a substantial rally in the afternoon. There should be a rally Friday morning but it likely won't hold and the averages will probably finish in the red that day. We'll be lucky to finish the week above 12,500. I think a more realistic target will be near 12,200-12,400 and 1320-1340 on the S&P.
Tokyo by contrast looks neutral to bullish this week. Monday (4th) looks positive, and Wednesday (6th) looks like a solid up day, too, although the market is likely to finish with a loss on Friday(8th). Still, it should be in the green overall. Bombay looks slightly bullish as it starts with a strong Monday (4th). Wednesday afternoon looks negative though as Moon is aspected by Rahu. The negative sentiment will carry through Thursday (7th) with a down day. Friday will be an up day that should put the Sensex in positive territory for the week. We'll see how far above water it can remain.
The Euro looks mildly bearish this week but look for short term highs Tuesday morning local time as Moon conjoins the natal Venus. Thursday afternoon looks rough. It will probably fall back below 1.47 and finish the week near that level.
Gold looks slightly bearish this week. It might slip below $900 this week and may even finish below. But it does not look like another major downward leg. Watch for short term lows Wednesday a.m EST (6th) as the Moon falls under the spell of Ketu for a while. There ought to be a nice finish to the week with a big price rise Friday afternoon EST. It may even push back above $900 or perhaps even $910.
This week will be more tentative all around. I do not expect the Dow to maintain this level (12,850) by Friday as the negative indicators outnumber the positive.. There will probably be an intraday retesting of last week's levels at 12,200 (1320 on the S&P) and a down mood will predominate. Monday the 4th afternoon looks negative, while Wednesday and Thursday (6th and 7th) look very volatile and largely negative as transiting Sun and Mercury oppose the natal Uranus and Ascendant in the NYSE chart. Look for greater than 1% declines, especially on Wednesday. Thursday afternoon will probably be less of a decline as there will be a substantial rally in the afternoon. There should be a rally Friday morning but it likely won't hold and the averages will probably finish in the red that day. We'll be lucky to finish the week above 12,500. I think a more realistic target will be near 12,200-12,400 and 1320-1340 on the S&P.
Tokyo by contrast looks neutral to bullish this week. Monday (4th) looks positive, and Wednesday (6th) looks like a solid up day, too, although the market is likely to finish with a loss on Friday(8th). Still, it should be in the green overall. Bombay looks slightly bullish as it starts with a strong Monday (4th). Wednesday afternoon looks negative though as Moon is aspected by Rahu. The negative sentiment will carry through Thursday (7th) with a down day. Friday will be an up day that should put the Sensex in positive territory for the week. We'll see how far above water it can remain.
The Euro looks mildly bearish this week but look for short term highs Tuesday morning local time as Moon conjoins the natal Venus. Thursday afternoon looks rough. It will probably fall back below 1.47 and finish the week near that level.
Gold looks slightly bearish this week. It might slip below $900 this week and may even finish below. But it does not look like another major downward leg. Watch for short term lows Wednesday a.m EST (6th) as the Moon falls under the spell of Ketu for a while. There ought to be a nice finish to the week with a big price rise Friday afternoon EST. It may even push back above $900 or perhaps even $910.
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