Stocks in year end rally

Stocks in New York rose 2% on renewed hopes that government support for the auto industry would stave off bankruptcy. The Dow closed at 8668 and the S&P at 890. The rally in the US followed world markets higher as Mumbai was also up 2% with the Sensex at 9716 and the Nifty at 2979.

This rally was expected in advance of the Mercury-Jupiter conjunction, although the Indian markets have been extra strong, perhaps as a result of the end of Indo-Pak tensions. Tomorrow may well see another up day, although with the Mercury-Jupiter conjunction coming exact before trading in the US, it is possible that the rally may sputter somewhat.

Forecast for week of Dec 29 - Jan 2

Stocks in New York declined 2% last week as the tense Saturn-Neptune aspect continued to lurk in the background. The indexes stubbornly stayed above key support levels as the Dow closed Friday at 8515 and the S&P at 872. The immediate source of the negativity seemed to come from the Mars-Jupiter aspect as investors remained cautious before Christmas. The New Moon of December 27th suggests a mixed picture for January as malefic Mars-Pluto rises but Venus and Neptune are in exact conjunction. This is perhaps more evidence that the month to come may feature both a significant decline and a substantial rally. The optimism and idealism reflected in the Venus-Neptune conjunction is well expressed in the Obama inauguration on January 20. This will likely coincide will some kind of rise in the markets.

This week Saturn makes its retrograde station on Wednesday at 27 degrees of Leo. By itself this may not be a bearish influence, but given the Neptune aspect, it takes on a much larger importance. It is one of the reasons that we're likely to see more downward pressure on the market over the next week or two. On Wednesday, there is a conjunction of Mercury and Jupiter which may give some boost to the market, although it is more likely to occur before the aspect becomes exact.

Stocks in Mumbai were in sharp retreat last week as the major indices fell 7% with the Nifty settling at 2857 and the Sensex at 9328. Profit taking from the December rally and increased nervousness of the the tensions between India and Pakistan forced stocks lower. The near term outlook remains negative as Wednesday's Saturn retrograde station will closely aspect the natal Jupiter in the NSE horoscope. The New Moon at 12 Sagittarius is in close aspect with natal Saturn which is another bearish indicator for the Indian markets in the coming weeks.

Stocks slump further

New York continued its listless mood as the outlook for 2009 weighed on investors' minds. The Dow managed to stay above the 8400 support level but closed down 1% at 8419 while the S&P ended the day at 863. Stocks in Mumbai were negative from the open and fell over 2% as the Nifty closed at 2968 and the Sensex at 9686. Indian stocks remain above their 50 day moving average but seem ripe for a sell off.

I had thought we would see more upside by now with the Mercury-Venus-Uranus aspect. Time is running out for any last ditch rally before we head decisively lower. New York could rise Wednesday, but I'm less optimistic about Mumbai's chances. It will be interesting to see the effect of the midday (IST) Moon-Mars-Jupiter alignment. Given that Mumbai went higher in the December bounce, it is more vulnerable to profit-taking. Nifty 2525 is now very much on the table.

Stocks fall on grim outlook for 2009

Stocks in New York fell almost 2% today on the broader averages as a growing number of forecasts indicated another tough year for 2009. The Dow bounced off its intraday lows and closed at 8519 and the S&P ended at 871. Indian stocks also lost ground today as the Nifty weakened at the end of the day to close at 3039 and the Sensex at 9928. The pullback was no real surprise, especially in the US with the Moon squaring the nodes.

We may see a bounce tomorrow however. India looks quite negative at the open, so the Nifty will likely trade below 3000 before noon. However, a close in the green is still possible. And it's possible that sentiment will fully reverse by the close in New York with more upside possible by Wednesday.

Market Forecast -- week of December 22 - 26

Our bearish forecast notwithstanding, US stocks were mostly unchanged last week as the Dow closed Friday at 8579 and the S&P at 887. I had thought we would see more downside with the alignment of malefic planets, particularly the Mars-Saturn aspect. Monday saw stocks fall but they did not come close to even the 8400 support level. Tuesday's rally was not unexpected either, as Venus conjoined Rahu. But the late week decline was also a rather tepid affair as the market remains stuck in a fairly narrow trading range between 8500-9000.

It's important to note that the negative energy of the aspect between slow moving Saturn and Neptune has not disappeared. It is likely to be manifest sometime soon and is awaiting the proper planetary trigger. I mistakenly though the Sun-Mars would be sufficient, but as always astrology, the science that is not one, is rarely as straightforward as it seems. This week doesn't appear to have anything that will break us out of this trading range, although a rally is possible midweek on the Mercury-Venus aspect. Friday may be a harbinger of steeper declines to come, however, with the approach of the Mars-Pluto conjunction. Given the violent potential contained within these planets, it is possible this may be related to a geopolitical event that shakes market confidence. In any event, I think we will likely see the low around the first week of January 2009.

Stocks in Mumbai continued their winning ways last week as the major indices rose 5%. The Nifty closed at 3077 and the Sensex at 10,099. The late week Mars transit to the NSE ascendant did not bring declines but rather actually saw some gains. I'm a little puzzled by this market strength but remained convinced that this is another bear market rally that cannot be trusted to go much higher. Nifty 3150 seems like a solid resistance level.

While some gains are possible Tuesday or Wednesday, Indian stocks are likely to finish near or slightly below current levels this week. The Mars-Pluto conjunction early next week has the added feature of exactly aspecting the natal Mars in the Indian independence horoscope. This is a combination of planetary energies that speaks to sudden or even violent actions that may fall outside of the financial arena. The natal Mars in the India chart is in the 2nd house of finances however, so the most likely expression of this energy is simply more financial turbulence. Nonetheless, we should be open to all possibilities.

I think the US dollar will recover further in the coming weeks, with corresponding losses in gold.

US stocks fall for second day

Wall St. sold off amidst news of a GE debt downgrade and the increased possibility of an auto bankruptcy. The Dow was down over 2% to 8605 while the S&P closed at 885. Earlier in the day, Indian stocks rallied 3% as the Sensex closed at 10,076 and the Nifty at 3060.

I think we're likely to see another negative day tomorrow worldwide in advance of the Sun-Pluto conjunction. There is a good chance that it will be larger than today's decline in the US. These are December's dark days to be sure. While next week may be somewhat better, I get the feeling that the market still hasn't finished testing the downside here. Saturn's station on the 31st looms large.

US stocks fall back

Stocks in New York fell about 1% as traders took some profits after yesterday big run-up. The Dow closed at 8824 and the S&P at 904. In Mumbai, the major indices fell 3% as the winning streak came to an end. The Sensex ended the day at 9715 and the Nifty at 2954. The US dollar sell off continued as the Euro and Gold rose 3%.

In the wake of the Sun-Jupiter aspect, this decline was not unexpected as the positive energy was no longer available to push up prices. I had thought the US dollar might have turned around by now, but the Euro chart does show a couple of obviously positive contacts in effect today amidst all the tense ones: tr Venus conjunct the natal Uranus and tr Jupiter still conjunct the natal Venus. The Euro (and gold) may squeeze one more day out of this rally before coming back down to earth. Tomorrow could be a big down day for US stocks as Moon conjoins Saturn during the trading day. India may avoid the worst of it until Friday.

Market rallies as Fed cuts rates to zero

Ben Bernanke provided the fuel for a big 5% rally on Wall St as the Fed chair cut rates to as low as zero. The Dow closed at 8924 and the S&P at 913. Indian stocks were also higher as the Sensex closed at 9976 and the Nifty at 3041.

While the up day in New York was not surprising, the strength of the rally was. I think tomorrow may see a shift however and the end of the week still looks bearish to me. I'm not convinced that this rally is for real. There will be still significant declines before January.

US stocks fall; Mumbai rises

Worries over manufacturing pushed stocks 1% lower in New York today as the Dow closed at 8564 and the S%P at 868. Mumbai continued its winning ways as the Nifty ended the session 2% higher at 2981 and the Sensex at 9832.

The modest decline in New York was somewhat disappointing given the harash planetary architecture in effect. Even if we see some buoyancy tomorrow, I'm sticking to my basic position that the downside this week will be greater than any upside. Mumbai looks relatively stronger, but it, too, will eventually succumb. How much lower it will fall remains an open question, however.

Forecast for week of Dec 15 - 19

US stocks ended mostly unchanged on the week as the Dow closed Friday at 8629 and the S&P at 879. The forecast early week rise to 9000 came off more or less as expected, but the decline afterwards was fairly modest. While Friday's open took the Dow down towards 8400, the market rallied through the rest of the day, despite the malefic Full Moon configuration and the failure of the auto bailout plan in the Senate. As Mars perfects its square to Saturn on Monday, it's hard to imagine the market going much higher this week. Declines would seem to be more in keeping with the planetary energy. A midweek rise is more likely given the Venus-Rahu conjunction on Tuesday and Wednesday. Rahu symbolizes acquisitiveness and compulsive behaviour and Venus is connected with money so we may see a strong up day. Mercury is in aspect with Rahu later in the week, so that could give some investors second thoughts and take the market down again.

Indian stocks rose 7% last week on hopes that China's stimulus package would help avoid the worst of the slowdown. The Nifty closed Friday at 2921 and the Sensex at 9690. While the early week rise was anticipated, the absence of a late week pullback was something of a disappointment. I think Mumbai will likely catch up on the downside this week as transiting Mars conjoins the ascendant in the NSE chart. At least one strong up day is likely, however, so the overall losses may be tempered somewhat. I think Indian markets are vulnerable to sell offs over the next two weeks as transiting Saturn is coming to its retrograde station on 31 December exactly conjunct the natal Moon in the 8th house in the Sensex chart. This doesn't mean the market will be completely negative until that time, but it will probably mean that any rallies will not get far as selling pressure will never be far away.

The US dollar sank a little further last week as the Euro and Gold moved higher. I think the US dollar will likely move higher this week, and likely continue to be strong through to the end of the month.

New York falls on worries over auto bailout

New York shares fell over 2% as worries over the possibility that no auto bailout would be reached in Congress prompted an afternoon sell off. The Dow closed at 8565 and the S&P at 873. Asian stocks were mixed and Mumbai was largely unchanged after a strong rally at the close as the Nifty ended the session at 2920 and the Sensex at 9645.

It looks as though all that negative planetary energy is finally catching up to the market here. Asia should be down significantly Friday (probably below 2850 on the Nifty) and New York will probably continue to move lower. There's some support at Dow 8100 so it may not breach that level until early next week. It's still possible we could see a huge sell off Friday in New York, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it. Let's see what transpires.

New York up modestly, Mumbai gains 5%

Wall St managed to rally near the close today and closed up about 1%. The Dow ended at 8761 while the S&P finished at 899. Mumbai resumed trading after the holiday closure and added 5% as the Nifty closed at 2928 and the Sensex at 9654.

It may be that the bulk of the forecast decline to 8000 or below will have to wait until early next week. Friday still looks very bearish, but tomorrow is more ambiguous.

New York stocks fall on earnings worries

Not even Jupiter entering sidereal Capricorn could buoy the market today as stocks fell more than 2% as stock indices bounced off the 50-day moving average. The Dow ended the session at 8691 while the S&P closed at 888. Mumbai was shut for a holiday.

I think the applying square aspect between the Sun and Uranus took precedence over any Jupiter bullishness. With Mars following close behind the Sun, it's hard to see much upside this week, although I would not rule out an up day along the way. Some kind of intraday rally may be possible towards the close tomorrow with the Moon moving into a trine aspect withJupiter.

US stocks extend rally; Mumbai halves gains at close

Stocks in New York rallied over 3% today as the Dow closed at 8934 and the S&P at 909. The Dow also finally managed a potentially significant technical achievement by rising to its 50-day moving average for the first time in two months as it briefly traded above 9000. The gain in America followed optimism worldwide as stocks in India also ended significantly higher. The Nifty closed at 2784 although it had traded as high as 2850 in the morning. The Sensex ended the day at 9162.

The Mercury ingress to sidereal Sagittarius has proven to be a bullish influence and so we await the exact ingress of Jupiter into sidereal Capricorn tomorrow (EST). It is possible that the markets will manage another up day here although I am not certain of the outcome.

Forecast for week of Dec 8- 12

US Stocks fell 2% last week on the heels of Monday's triple conjunction of Moon-Venus-Jupiter. The Dow closed at 8635 while the S&P ended Friday at 876. While I had expected more upside near the time of conjunction, it was a reminder that the energy contained in most aspects lies at the 'front end' when the planets are applying and once they come exact the energy dissipates very quickly. As it turned out the Venus-Jupiter conjunction perfected in the overnight hours Monday (EST) and not even the approach of the Moon midday was enough to revive positive sentiment. Overseas markets started to fall very close to the time of the Venus-Jupiter conjunction. Once the Moon had perfected its aspect to both Venus and Jupiter, the market decline accelerated.

I think markets are headed into a minefield this week with the approaching Sun-Mars-Saturn-Neptune alignment. While some early week gains are possible on the sidereal ingresses of Mercury and Jupiter into Sagittarius and Capricorn respectively, markets will likely move significantly lower from these levels. One complicating factor is that the Sun will not be in exact alignment with Saturn until Saturday, which may lessen the level of negative energy on Friday. Friday still looks very negative as does next Monday when Mars will be in aspect to Saturn. It seems likely that we will see the Dow fall below 8000 here.

Indian markets also declined last week as the indices lost 1% with the Sensex closing at 8965 and the Nifty at 2714. Mercury conjoins the ascendant of the NSE chart on Monday so that should ensure a nice gain then. With Tuesday's holiday closing, it's harder to see much upside for the rest of the week. Transiting Rahu is in tense aspect with the natal Sun-Venus conjunction in the NSE chart so that bodes very poorly for Indian markets over the coming two weeks. A retest of the late October lows is likely.

This is shaping up a potentially tumultuous week in the global financial system as I expect the US dollar to spike on its safe haven status while gold and oil will continue to fall. But there's a good chance that there will be some kind of lasting bottom formed in the coming days that will be the launching point for a rally in early 2009.
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US stocks stage afternoon rally

After spending most of the day under water, US stocks rallied 3% in the afternoon as the Dow closed at 8635 and the S&P at 876. The gain followed losses in Asia as Indian markets fell 3% with the Sensex closing at 8965 and the Nifty at 2714.

American stocks continue to flirt with a final rally attempt towards 9000. As the 50-day moving average has now fallen below 9000 for the first time, that may be a sign that stocks may approach that level early next week. Stocks closed higher than expected today although much of the early trading was below 8200. I had thought the First Lunar Quarter might have yielded more bearishness but it was offset by the positive influence of the aspect from Mars, which was exalted in Capricorn in the navamsa.

US rally ends; Mumbai rises

US stocks slid 3% today on fears that GM may have moved one step closer to bankruptcy. The Dow traded above 8600 a couple of times today but sold off in the afternoon as sentiment buckled on the weight of a barrage of bad economic news. Earlier in the day, Indian stocks had moved 4% higher as the Nifty closed at 2788 and the Sensex at 9229.

The market is now quickly running out of time to make a move higher towards 9000 which now seems quite remote. I had thought today might be higher, but in all likelihood this downward afternoon move was a foreshadowing of a larger move down over the next two weeks. Tomorrow may be another big down day.

US stocks continue rally

Stocks in New York added another 2% to this fledgling rally as the Dow ended the day at 8591 while the S&P closed at 870. Shares were largely unchanged in India as the Nifty closed at 2656 and the Sensex at 8747.

Look for more gains tomorrow as the Dow makes a run at 9000. I doubt it will get there but it could well be close based on the strong navamsa conjunction of the Sun and Jupiter. I am expecting Thursday's gain to be bigger than today's, so that might mean something on the order of 3-5%. India will likely enjoy the lion's share of gains on Friday (IST).

US stocks bounce back 4%

Markets in Europe and America bounced back after yesterday's big sell off. The Dow closed at 8419 while the S&P ended the session at 848. In a fairly bullish move, the market retested the 8100 level twice and rallied at the close. Indian markets rallied off their morning lows and closed down only 1% as the Nifty ended at 2657 and the Sensex at 8739.

I think there's more positive planetary energy this week, although I think Thursday in the US may be better than Wednesday owing to the closer Sun-Jupiter conjunction in the navamsa chart then. Also Wednesday's US close may be bearish as the Moon approaches Neptune.

Dow plunges 8%

The recent rally in stocks came to an abrupt end today as stocks sold off sharply. The Dow opened gap down and kept falling through the day to end at 8149 while the S&P closed at 816. Indian stocks enjoyed decent gains early on as the Nifty rose above 2800 but fell through the afternoon and lost 2% over the day. The Nifty ended the session at 2682 while the Sensex stood at 8839.

As it turned out, the Venus-Jupiter conjunction lost its benefic strength a litttle earlier than expected. I had thought that we would see more upside today just as the aspect was perfected. However, the negative energy of the Mars-Ketu aspect took precedence and put an end to the rally. I don't think we're headed straight down from here and we should see some significant up days later on in the week. But Dow 9000 and Nifty 3000 looks increasingly improbable now as the shadow of that Scorpio New Moon is looking very foreboding.

Market Forecast -- week of December 1 -5

Stocks in New York rallied over 10% last week amidst a growing sense that a solid bottom was reached the week previous at 7400. The Dow ended the holiday-shortened week at 8829 while the S&P closed at 896. The rally was largely expected although I had thought we might see more declines later in the week. As it happened, the potential negativity contained within the Moon's transit of Scorpio was offset by the approaching conjunction of benefics Venus and Jupiter.

Monday's triple conjunction of Moon-Venus-Jupiter may coincide with a big rise as the rally enters a more difficult phase. The Sun and Mars will conjoin at 20 degrees of Scorpio on Friday and this may also shift sentiment away from rehabilitated optimism to a more jittery and alarmist orientation. The coming Saturn-Neptune aspect will likely bring back a significant amount of fear and pessimism to the market. In addition, the New Moon of November 27 was quite afflicted and also suggests that December will not be kind to equities. Although the Venus-Jupiter conjunction is fairly close in that chart, Mercury is in a tighter conjunction with Mars and both are aspected by unstable Ketu. This suggests that prices will be volatile through December with sudden ups and downs. To make matters worse, the New Moon in New York features Neptune rising with Saturn in the 8th house of obstacles. This is additional evidence that the markets will see a significant move down this month, perhaps revisiting Dow 7400 or even going below it.

Indian markets made more modest gains last week as the terror attacks in Mumbai shut markets on Thursday. While I had expected higher prices in the early going, stocks ended the week fairly close to forecast levels. The Nifty ended Friday's session at 2755 while the Sensex closed at 9092. The rally will likely be extended this week as the Venus-Jupiter conjunction occurs almost exactly on the natal Uranus of the NSE chart in the 2nd house of wealth. A very rapid rise is possible so Nifty 3000 seems quite doable here. The rally is unlikely to last very long, however, Saturn is moving into a particularly dominant position in the NSE chart. As already noted, the New Moon of November 27 is not a good chart. Moreover, in Mumbai, the New Moon occurred with malefic and unpredictable Ketu rising. While Ketu can simply mean quick and sudden actions, it is also very much an anti-materialist energy that is often at odds with higher stock prices. With Mercury conjunct Mars in this chart, it presents a fairly bleak picture for stocks in December. The only question is how low will they go. I think a retest of Nifty 2525 is inevitable, and stocks will likely trade well below that level for a time.

Rally on Wall St continues

The rally continued on Wall St today as the Dow shook off a negative open and finished at 8726 while the S&P ended at 887. Asian stocks were also up by 3% as the Nifty ended at 2752 and the Sensex at 9026.

Wall St is closed for Thanksgiving Thursday but stocks globally seemed destined to pullback somewhat Thursday and into Friday. Given the shocking terrorist attacks in central Mumbai, one can't be sure if that market will even open Thursday. If it does, it will certainly move down. All in all, the rally is well under way here and will continue into next week.

US stocks rise for third straight day

Stocks in New York were modestly higher today on news of new government bailout money for the economy. The Dow again traded near 8600 today and ended at 8479 while the S&P closed at 857. Most Asian markets were higher, but India sagged towards the close and the Nifty was down over 2% to 2654 while the Sensex finished at 8695. This is the second day that markets in Mumbai failed to hold onto significant gains.

Wednesday is shaping up negatively both in India and in North America. The Nifty may even retest 2525 at some point in the next couple of days. The US is likely finished its winning streak and may probe below 8200 Wednesday.

US stocks soar on Citigroup bailout

Stocks in New York rose 6% today on news that beleaguered banking giant Citigroup would receive government assistance. The Dow closed at 8443 while the S&P ended the session at 851. The rally was more modest in Asia as the Nifty was only up 0.5% to 2708 while the Sensex was actually fractionally down at 8903.

The trend appears to be up here and tomorrow may well build on today's gains in advance of the Sun-Mercury conjunction.

Market Forecast -- week of November 24 - 28

Stocks markets worldwide continued their downward spiral last week amidst the growing sense that the recession will be a long and painful one. Despite Friday's impressive rally on the news of Timothy Geithner's appointment as Obama's Treasury Secretary, the Dow was off 5% for the week and closed at 8046 while the S&P stood at 800. On Thursday, the Dow retested its 2002 lows of 7400 while the S&P revisited lows set back in 1996. While I had expected a possible retest, I thought the markets might be content with Dow 8000 and then bounce back from there. I also mistakenly thought the low for the week would occur earlier, in advance of the perfecting of the Jupiter-Saturn aspect. As it turned out it was only the day the aspect perfected, Friday, that saw the market turnaround.

This market is clearly on its last legs of this phase of the bear market. With the passing of the Jupiter-Saturn aspect, the next major aspect is Saturn-Neptune. This is a more clearly malefic influence and will likely be felt with full force in December when those two planets are in their closest harmonic resonance. Despite the gloom that hangs over the market, however, there may well be enough time left for some modest gains over the next week or two, particularly in light of approach of the triple conjunction of benefics Moon, Venus and Jupiter on December 1. Nonetheless, the market is likely to be extremely volatile during this period so any gains are unlikely to last long and may be confined to intraday highs as skittishness will intensify as time goes on. It's possible the Dow could go to 9000 at some point here, but it's not anything one should put a large stake in. The Sun and Mercury conjoin on Tuesday so this may well have a hand in some optimistic trading patterns in the early part of the week.

Markets in Mumbai followed the rest of the world last week as Dalal Street saw losses of 6%. Thursday saw a retest of October's closing lows (2525/7700) but Friday's rally saved the day as the Nifty closed at 2693 and the Sensex at 8915. As the world slips deeper into recession, there will be no escape for Indian markets from December's decline. In the meantime some modest gains are possible this week but they will be fleeting. Even with the helpful Sun-Mercury conjunction on Tuesday, the Moon's transit of Scorpio, its sign of debilitation, late in the week may bring significant losses. High volatility in the next two weeks impose limits on any gains. From a longer term perspective, I am increasingly pessimistic about a market recovery in 2009. Rallies will occur and they may have considerable force, but they are very unlikely to return the market to levels seen in the first half of 2008. This is not a good time to own stocks for the long haul as it may be years before they return to 2008 levels.

With the ongoing turbulence last week, crude oil sold off sharply and even traded below $50. While some bounce back is possible this week, crude is headed lower into December, probably below $40. Gold rallied nicely last week to $800 and things continue to look quite positive for gold as the Sun transits Anuradha this week and into the early part of next week. I expect it to climb higher. The US dollar once again was the beneficiary of fear in the market as it rose against most currencies. The Euro managed to hold its own at 1.26, however, and it may gain a cent or two here before heading down sharply in December. The Rupee lost ground last week closing at 49.9 and is going to be on shaky ground for the next month or so and may trade in the 52 range.

US stocks rally on Geithner appointment

US stocks rallied strongly at the close on news that Timothy Geithner would be the new Treasury Secretary in the incoming Obama administration. The Dow ended the day at 8046 and the SPX closed at 800. The rally followed a similarly strong rally in Asia that saw Indian stocks rise 5% as the Nifty rose to 2693 and the Sensex at 8915.

While I expected this bounce earlier in the week, better late than never. This sets up the prospect for more gains next week.

Swimming in a sea of red

US stocks slid another 6% today to 5-year lows as the Dow closed at 7552 and the SPX at 752. Asian markets were similarly bearish as the Nifty closed down 3% to 2553 while the Sensex closed at 8451.

So is this the low for the 2008? That is the question now that the Jupiter-Saturn aspect will become exact tomorrow at 9 a.m. EST just before the open in New York. Since most energy is released in advance of major aspects, there is even more reason to believe that we are on the verge of another bear market rally. As the aspect separates during Friday's session in the US, there is a very good chance that sentiment will finally shift.

US stocks plunge 6%; Dow trades below 8000

US markets remained in retest mode today as the Dow broke the 8000 level and closed at 7997 while the SPX probed lower and closed at 806. Asian bourses started the day in the red as the Nifty sank to 2635 and the Sensex to 8773.

It was an ugly day on Wall St, and the extent of the downside was surprising. While I had expected a Dow retest, I had hoped we would have been done with it yesterday. Tomorrow is therefore the probable reversal day. Depending on how low we go at the open, the strength in the afternoon should push prices in New York significantly higher.

US stocks move higher on rally at the clse

With a strong rally at the close, US stocks moved 1% higher after venturing into retest territory in the early afternoon. The Dow finished at 8424 and the SPX at 859. Asian markets were lower as stocks in Mumbai lost 4%. The Sensex ended trading near the lows of the day at 8937 and the Nifty at 2683.

While the Dow did not quite match its October low, the SPX did and in fact almost
matched Thursday's low of 820. The rally near the close is an indication of things to come this week. There's a chance for Dow 9000 by Friday and Nifty 3000. Let's see if enough market participants believe that he have had a retest to push prices higher.

US stocks fall on Citigroup cuts

Stocks in New York fell over 2% after massive job cuts at Citigroup and news that Japan had slipped into recession. The Dow closed near its lows for the day at 8273 while the SPX ended at 850. Indian markets staged an impressive afternoon rally and only closed marginally down. The Nifty ended trading at 2799 and the Sensex finished at 9291.

So no retest in New York today but the real possibility for a lower open tomorrow. I'm doubtful we will see Dow 8000 here but it's still possible. Nifty 2700 is very likely tomorrow. After that, perhaps a lift.

Market Forecast -- week of Nov 17 - 21

Stocks slumped 5% worldwide last week on continuing fears that the recession may be deeper than first thought. Despite an impressive rally Thursday in New York following an apparent retest of Dow 8000, the market slipped back Friday as the Dow closed at 8497 and the SPX at 873. I had expected more of rally last week on the basis of the favourable Jupiter-Uranus aspect but it seems that the hangover effects of the preceding week's Saturn-Uranus opposition still carried the day.

I think markets are likely to be shaky in the early part of the week on the heels of Saturn's aspect to Mercury on Monday. I would not be surprised to see yet another retest of Dow 8000 then. Stocks are likely to improve significantly as the week progresses as Mercury joins the Sun and Mars in Scorpio. Venus' ingress into Purvashada will also be supportive of sentiment as Jupiter's aspect to Saturn perfects on Friday. Depending on how low we go early on, we could end the week at or above current levels.

In Mumbai, markets also succumbed to pessimism as the major indices failed to hold onto early gains that put them over key psychological levels of 10,000 on the Sensex and 3000 on the Nifty. The Sensex closed Friday at 9385 and the Nifty at 2810. Monday should be quite negative but look for a reversal Tuesday or Wednesday as transiting Mercury conjoins the natal Jupiter in the NSE chart. Friday looks quite favourable as the Moon transits Purva Phalguni while its lord Venus lords over Purvashada. Barring some catastrophic meltdown in the early part of the week, Indian markets should finish higher than current levels.

The Euro slipped back to 1.26 last week the bearishness in stocks pushed investors to once again seek safe haven in the US dollar. I think there could be more weakness at the start of the week, perhaps under 1.25, but look for the Euro to recover by week's end as Venus conjoins the natal Sun in the Euro chart. We should see a similar pattern in the Rupee which also lost ground last week and closed at 48.8. Early trading may push it above 50 but looks for strengthening by Friday at least back to current levels and then some.

Crude oil fell sharply last week and opens Monday at $57. With Sun and Mercury transiting the 6th house of the Futures chart, more declines are likely early in the week, and we will likely see $55 easily broken. Some bounce is likely by Friday so we return to current levels or slightly above. Crude prices will likely continue to weaken through December, however, as transiting Ketu aspects natal Jupiter

Gold made some modest gains to $742 last week, just as the Sun was leaving Libra, its sign of debilitation. I think gold is likely to move higher this week as the Sun is joined by Mercury in Scorpio after midweek.


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Wild ride on Wall St

US stocks swung wildly in a 10% range today before finally closing up 6%. After a midday testing of 8000, the Dow closed at 8835 and the S&P ended at 911. Indian markets were shut for a holiday.

The huge swings this week speak to the ongoing struggle between Uranus and Saturn who are both competing for Jupiter's attention. All three are in close aspect with each other hence the rapid movement between Saturn's pessimism and Uranus' exuberance. The earlier down move this week was so strong, I assumed Saturn was edging out Uranus. After today's action, I'm not so sure. We could start lower in the morning tomorrow, but move up in the afternoon after the Moon moves away from Rahu's influence.

In any event, I still think there is some significant negative energy that needs to be released over the next few sessions. Let's see how it plays out.

US stocks continue downwards

Stocks in New York fell further today on the usual array of gloomy economic news. The Dow ended the day at 8282 while the S&P closed at 852. Indian markets also declined 3% as the Sensex closed at 9536 and the Nifty ended the session at 2848. Mumbai is closed for trading tomorrow so it will have to play catch up on the downside Friday.

My bullish prediction for the week notwithstanding, it's clear that momentum has shifted and we're likely headed down until early next week when we may form a temporary bottom. Even if we manage an up day tomorrow or Friday, we will still likely break below 8000 on the Dow and perhaps 8800 on the Sensex. While I have been stunningly wrong about the market this week, the silver lining is that the trend is down and that is still very much going according to plan.

Markets slide on economic worries

Markets worldwide succumbed to plethora of bad economic news today. In New York stocks fell 2% as the Dow closed at 8693 while the S&P ended the session at 898. Asian losses were steeper, as Indian markets slumped over 6% as the Sensex closed at 9839 and the Nifty at 2938.

Tomorrow should finally see some significant gains in the US in advance of the Full Moon, although the outlook may be less positive for Asia. November is shaping up to be a mixed month within a fairly narrow trading range.

Asia rallies; US slips

US stocks failed to hang on to gains made earlier in the day in Asia on the heels of China's stimulus package. The Dow closed down abotu 1% to 8870 and the SPX ended the day at 919. In India, The Sensex was up 5% to 10,536 while the Nifty climbed to 3148.

One notes that the shift in sentiment may have been related to the changing Moon nakshtra from Saturn-ruled Uttara Bhdrapada to Mercury-ruled Revati. Saturn is aspected by benefic Jupiter, while Mercury occupies the often troublesome nakshatra of Swati. Tomorrow, the Moon enters Ashwini during the North American trading day.

Market Forecast -- week of Nov 10 - 14

US stocks fell 4% last week on a post-election sell off as the Dow closed at 8943 and the SPX at 930. I had expected a negative week on the basis of the Saturn-Uranus opposition, but was somewhat disappointed that the decline wasn't bigger. In retrospect, the market saw gains when the Venus-Saturn-Uranus alignment was most exact, so that it another reminder that the exactitude of transit aspects should not be given greater importance over other factors. One could make a better case for the triggering effects of Mercury moving into Rahu-ruled Swati on Wednesday as the explanation for the decline.

This week will see Jupiter (expansion) move into closer harmonic alignment with both Saturn (restriction) and Uranus (sudden energy). While Jupiter with Uranus often connotes sharp rises, Saturn's role in this multi-planet alignment may dampen market enthusiasm. We may also see subtle sentiment shifts in some sectors as both Venus and Mars have just changed signs. Venus has moved into Sagittarius to join Jupiter and this may assist the consumer sector in a general way. Mars has now entered Scorpio, a sign it rules, and should therefore be regarded as a stronger planet. Of course, strength alone is neither positive or negative for the market, but can indicate that Mars has a greater say in market direction. By virtue of entering Scorpio, Mars has now moved into a tense alignment with Saturn and Uranus which now occupy signs 4 signs away. This aspect is still far from being exact so it would be mistaken to ascribe too much influence to it. As the aspect becomes more exact, we can expect the negative side of Mars to be expressed through declines. For the moment, though, it seems relatively unafflicted, so it is unlikely to push prices down. Another potentially significant aspect this week is the conjunction of Venus and Pluto that occurs on Wednesday. Venus can be seen to represent money in this case, while Pluto symbolizes power and control. On the face of it, this may be a bullish influence for the market. However, sudden falls following the conjunction are common, and indeed one cannot assume that they will correspond exactly to the moment of conjunction itself.

Against my expectations, Indian stocks rose last week as the Sensex closed at 9964 and the Nifty at 2973. While prices did fall towards the end of the week, I was surprised by the extent of early week rise. Market movements reflected the NSE horoscope quite well as markets fell Wednesday and Thursday as transiting Sun conjoined the natal Rahu. While I did not foresee Friday's rise, it was also plausibly indicated through transiting Venus conjoining the NSE ascendant. My error was in ascribing too much influence to the simultaneous transit of Mars to the 12th house cusp of this chart. With transiting Ketu moving away from the natal Mars, it is not unreasonable to believe that the worst losses of the market are now behind us in the short term. This aspect was exactly conjunct in October when the losses were at their steepest. Transiting Sun comes to the natal Jupiter this week so some gains seem likely, although perhaps they will be subject to rapid profit taking as Mercury will conjoin malefic Rahu late in the week.

Most global currencies rallied against the US dollar last week as the banking situation normalized and confidence returned. The Euro even traded above 1.30 earlier in the week and closed Friday's session at 1.27. This was much stronger than I had expected. It seems that the US dollar rally may be over for the short term. I think more gains are possible this week as the Venus-Pluto conjunction may provide a boost for an acquisitiveness thus boosting demand in local currencies. The Rupee is also likely to benefit from this improvement in sentiment.

Crude oil fell back to $61 last week as transiting Mars afflicted the ascendant in the Futures chart. As Mars moves away from this sensitive point, we can expect crude to rise, perhaps sharply. One possible unknown is that the Venus-Pluto conjunction will occur very close to the natal Ketu-Neptune in the Futures chart. It is possible that this will reflect a negative sentiment towards crude, but Ketu is a very changeable planet and it can be converted, as it were, from a malefic to a benefic if the benefic influences on it predominate.

Gold rose modestly last week as it closed at $738. Part of the explanation for the gain lay in the aspect between the transiting Sun and the natal Jupiter in the Futures chart. While this only accounted for perhaps two days' influence, it may have been enough to temporarily offset the longer term background influence of transiting Ketu on the natal Moon. Although Ketu remains a negative influence on Gold now, it is possible we may again see a temporary rise this week as transiting Mercury now falls under the benefic influence of the natal Jupiter. Perhaps more than usual, gold prices will reflect a struggle between Ketu (bearish) and Mercury (bullish).

For a more detailed forecast, please consult the MVA Investor Newsletter, now available by subscription only.

US stocks slide another 5%

US stocks fell sharply on increased jobless claims and poor earnings. The Dow ended the day at 8695 while the S&P stood at 904. Today's decline began in Asia, as Indian markets also lost another 3% as the Sensex finished trading at 9734 and the Nifty at 2893.

So far, this most recent move down is fulfilling our expections for a negative week overall. Tomorrow's trading should be another negative day both in India and the US, although we may see the intraday low occur at some point in the middle of the day rather than at the close, as we've seen lately. 2800 on the Nifty is very possible, and 850 on the S&P is a sort of worst case scenario, with an 880-890 close perhaps more likely. It may be a good day to consider covering shorts with a rally possible sometime next week.

Stocks slide 5%

US stocks fell 5% on bad jobs numbers in the wake of the Obama victory. The Dow closed at 9139 and the S&P ended the day at 952. While some Asian bourses extended their rally yesterday, Mumbai also closed lower by 5% on a negative oulook for Reliance. The Sensex ended trading at 10,120 and the Nifty finished at 2994.

As suggested in my weekly forecast, I think this downturn can be tied to Mercury's entrace into Swati. Look for the negative trend to continue at least until Friday, and most likely into Monday, at least in Asia.

US stocks rally on low volume

US stocks rallied 3% today as optimism surrounding the impending Obama win boosted sentiment albeit on very weak volume. The Dow closed the session at 9625 and the S&P at 1005. Asian stocks also built on recent gains and closed up strongly with the Sensex finishing at 10,631 and the Nifty at 3142.

Although I had expected the early part of the week to be more bearish, this rally has not changed by basic outlook here. Look for a change in market direction tomorrow, perhaps as a result of a refocusing on economic fundamentals, or maybe because of political developements. A McCain win seems increasingly remote, so it seems that the most likely expression of the Saturn-Uranus aspect is the end to the neo-con worldview in the United States in the wake of a Democratic sweep. Whatever ends up happening, a significant decline is imminent. This will spread to world markets and will begin a leg down of about 10% over the next few days. In light of the extent of this rally, a retest of recent lows seems quite unlikely here. An early December retest looking more probable.

US stocks flat before election

Stocks in New York traded within a narrow range as investors were cautious before the US election on Tuesday. The Dow ended the day down frationally at 9319 and the S&P closed at 966. Asian stocks continued last week's rally as the Sensex closed up 5% to 10,337 while the Nifty climbed to 3043.

While I am bearish this week, today's session was not a surprise, particularly as some investors are waiting for the outcome of the election. It is conceivable that the market will not find a clear direction until Wednesday.

Market Forecast -- week of November 3 - 7

Stocks rose over 10% last week on the belief that the worst of the financial crisis has passed. In advance of the US election on Tuesday, the Dow opens trading this week at 9325 while the S&P stands at 968. While I had foreseen some midweek gains last week, I missed the strength of this rally and assumed an earlier beginning to the negative sentiment that will result from the Saturn-Uranus aspect. I grossly underestimated the positive effect of Venus entering Jyestha on the 27th while its lord Mercury was very strong. This resulted in a growth in investor confidence and pushed prices higher, albeit on fairly modest volume.

As I have indicated previously, the markets this week will be heavily influenced by the malefic t-square involving Venus, Saturn and Uranus. The Saturn-Uranus aspect is exact on Tuesday, while Venus forms tense squares with both of these slow moving malefics on Monday. It's quite a negative picture, and with the added feature of a nasty and close US election, there is a real possibility for some unexpected developments that could rattle markets. We also have Mercury in Libra now which therefore draws more negative Saturn energy from its 3rd house aspect to Libra. Moreover, Mercury will move into malefic Swati that is ruled by Rahu on Tuesday evening, just as the polls close. This suggests that the election may be a significant factor in the market.

Overall, this week looks very negative, and the only real question is how low it will go and when that low will be reached. While I think there is a genuine risk of a major 10-15% sell off like we saw in early October, there is a good chance the decline will be more modest. I think we might see the interim low towards the end of the week, but next week also looks fairly negative, especially towards Friday the 14th. A retest of 7773 is still very much in the cards here, although I am not at all certain we will get there. It may be more prudent to expect 8100-8500 this week, but much depends on how bad Monday and Tuesday are. If they are strongly negative and we get down to about 8500 by Tuesday, then a retest becomes more likely in the very near term. A retest also becomes more of a probable eventuality if something unexpected occurs with the election. In any event, this may be a good week to contemplate covering outstanding short positions. Volatility will likely spike once again as a result of the blending of Saturn and Uranus' contradictory planetary energies.

One reason why I am not certain will retest the Oct 10 lows is that some new research I've done suggests that we are more likely to see lower lows in mid-December. In fact, those are more likely to test the 2002-2003 lows of 7100 than anything we will see this week or next. Investors thinking of buying into the market for a longer duration would be well advised to wait until December.

Indian stocks put up some impressive gains as the indices rose 12%. The Sensex opens Monday at 9788 while the Nifty sits at 2885. Notwithstanding my mistaken call for last week, I am maintaining a very bearish outlook for Mumbai this week. Look for substantial losses this week with the week's lows occurring on Thursday or Friday. Transiting Sun will conjoin the NSE Rahu and come under the malefic aspect of the natal Mars on Friday while transiting Mars sits in the 12th house of loss. This is a very bearish configuration that could push prices down at least 10% for the week. There is also a chance we will retest the Oct 27 lows, although I admit I am not certain of this, as next week looks sufficiently negative that it may result in still lower levels.

As stocks advanced last week, so did most currencies against the US dollar. The Euro rose sharply and opens the week above 1.27. With the fall in stocks this week, we can expect to see most of last week's gains disappear. Transiting Mars will aspect the natal Ketu in the Euro chart. As a possible trigger, the transiting Moon will conjoin that natal Ketu on Thursday. This may well mark the largest decline on the week. I expect a low around 1.22-1.25, if not below 1.20 intraday. Other currencies like the Rupee will likely also fall in the coming week, perhaps back to the 50-51 level. Even if the US dollar rises significantly over the next two weeks, I think we won't see the high in the dollar until December.

Crude oil rebounded last week on improved economic sentiment and opens the week at $67. Look for a sell off early in the week as the Venus-Saturn-Uranus configuration activates the angles in the Futures chart. We may well be under $60 by Wednesday. I would not be surprised to see $55 this week or next.

Gold enjoyed a brief rally midweek but fell late sharply on Friday and opens Monday at $718. My bearish outlook for gold remains is unchanged as transiting Sun is still debilitated in Libra. What's worse this week is that it will come closer to the negative influence of Saturn towards the end of the week. I think we will see gold below $700 this week, perhaps well below. There is a lot of technical support at $650 so that is an obvious price target to watch for in the coming days. It may well get there over the next two weeks, but it is not certain. A more reliable low in gold will occur in December.

Halloween treats on Wall St as stocks rise again

US stocks rose 1.5%, as the market posted its largest weekly gain in over 30 years. The Dow finished the session at 9325 while the S&P closed at 968. Global markets continued their rally earlier in the day, as Indian stocks soared 7%. The BSE Sensex closed at 9788 while the NSE Nifty stood at 2885 at the close of trading. I was clearly mistaken in my expectation for weakness here as the the market has put together several consecutive up days for the first time in several weeks.

Nonetheless, I remain convinced that next week will see another sharp move down as the tense Venus-Saturn-Uranus configuration sends a shock to the markets. The aspect becomes exact on November 4, and as I've said previously, it's very possible that the market may have to react to some unforeseen developments in the US election. While I would not rule out another up day Monday in the US, I do think we are headed down over the next two weeks, probably to a retest of 7773 on the Dow and 7697 on the Sensex.

US rally fails at the close

New York closed down 1% after the Fed cut its prime lending rate 50 basis points to 1%. The Dow had been up over 9300 but sold off sharply in the last 15 minutes and ended the day at 8990 while the S&P closed at 930. Indian stocks were up modestly on the day with the Sensex at 9044 and the Nifty at 2697.

I had thought the market might hang on to more of its gains today, but it was not to be as bearishness returned at the close. This sets up a more negative sentiment Thursday and Friday and going into next week. There is a veritable Sword of Damocles hanging over this market as Mars moves under the exact aspect of Saturn in the next few days just as Saturn and Uranus are set to oppose one another early next week with the money planet Venus getting caught exactly in the middle. Look for volatility to increase here and we will likely see 8100-8500 intraday by Friday on the Dow. A retest of 7773 is more likely Monday or Tuesday. The Sensex will likely trade below 8000 on Friday, with closes below 7500 next week.

US stocks stage huge rally

In a stunning and dramatic rally, stocks soared amidst growing signs that the worst of the credit freeze was over. The Dow was up over 800 points and closed at 9065 while the S&P finished at 940. The rally was a continuation of a rally that began overnight in Asia and specifically, Hong Kong, where buyers rushed in to buy up bargains.

I did not foresee this rally, although I was fairly tentative about the market sentiment in advance of tomorrow's Fed meeting and that that some gains midweek were likely. In my weekly forecast I also noted the possibility of a Tuesday afternoon rally ahead of the Sun-Moon conjunction, although I had no inclination that we would witness such as huge upswing. While I am still cautious about this market, I do think that the strength of this rally should not be underestimated. A retest of the 2003 lows in November seems improbable now, and even a retest of 7773 is going to be a purely speculative play. Tomorrow will likely see another plus day ahead of the meeting and some selling afterwards but likely positive overall. 9500 is possible. But Thursday and Friday still look quite negative to me, so I think the market will once again trade down towards the 8500-9000 range. For those thinking of closing out short positions, that might be the a good opportunity. Monday also seems negative from here, so I would be reluctant to take on any large long positions this week. The market will likely continue to be volatile for another week or two. But on balance I think November will be positive, especially in the second half of the month.

Rally fails as stocks slide 3% at the close

After spending most of the day in positive territory, stocks in New York fell sharply at the close and ended down across the board. The Dow lost 200 points and ended the day at 8175 while the S&P closed at 848. While today's session did not retest the Oct 10 lows, it was somewhat noteworthy in that it was the lowest close yet. The negative mood followed mostly bearish global trading as Indian markets fell over 2%. The Nifty continued to probe the downside getting as low as 2252 intraday before closing at 2524. The Sensex similarly dipped below 8000 before rallying to finish at 8509.

In the end, my call for a retest today was overstated, although the day did end up negative. I am maintaining my basic position here that a significant retest is imminent and may come as soon as tomorrow, although I am not holding my breath on it. We may well see a close below 8000 and an intraday retest of 7773. I think the retest of the 2002-03 lows may have to wait until Friday or perhaps next week. And indeed, there is a chance they may not come at this time at all. Look for Indian markets to retest their intraday lows by Friday and into next week.

Market Forecast -- week of Oct 27 - 31

Global stock markets continued their downward spiral last week as investors weighed the implications of a prolonged worldwide recession. US stocks lost 6% as the Dow closed Friday at 8378 while the SPX stood at 876. This was largely in keeping with last week's mostly bearish forecast as the market prepared itself for a retest of the Oct 10 lows this week with Friday's harried decline.

This week I think it is certain we will see a retest of the recent lows and in all likelihood the 2003 lows also. This may occur as soon as Monday the 27th as the Moon conjoins Mercury in a negative alignment with both malefics, Mars and Saturn. Indeed, Monday looks like the most negative day this week so it is likely we will see a close below 8000 on the Dow and 840 on the SPX. I would not be surprised to see 7500 on an intraday basis. Tuesday will probably begin negatively but there is a good chance for a rally in the afternoon in advance of the Sun-Moon conjunction later in the day. The market may rally on Wednesday but the end of the week looks quite unstable and probably negative as Mars comes under the exact aspect of Saturn.

In terms of when the interim low will be reached, I'm still not certain if it will occur this week or next week. While this week's planets look worse than next week's, it is possible that this reflects a greater percentage decline rather than the bottom of the market. Monday will probably see the larger loss and it may well prove to be the interim low, but that may also occur Friday the 31st or even sometime next week, albeit will less dramatic single day drops. More cautious investors would do well to consider covering some short positions Monday just in case Friday does not quite return to Monday's levels. And with some kind of modest rally likely in November, it may be worthwhile to take some speculative long positions during the down days this week and next.

Indian markets were savaged last week after the RBI left rates unchanged Friday. The Nifty lost 12% in a single day and closed at 2584 while the Sensex ended Friday's bloodbath at an unbelievable 8701. My forecast had been fairly bearish about last week and correctly noted that Friday (and this Monday) would be the worst day(s). I also wondered aloud if 2000 on the Nifty was a possibility now. What seemed unrealistically gloomy last week, now seems much more plausible. This is a level with some technical support dating back to 2005 and given the probable volatility over the next two weeks seems more reachable. That said, I think that the greater portion of the declines have already taken place with the Mars conjunction to the BSE Rahu. Even with the likelihood of a decent November rally, investors should be cautious as December looks quite negative again. If the Nifty manages to stay above 2000 here, say, with lows in the 2200-2400 range, it may ultimately test that support level in December. With a shortened trading week for the Diwali holiday, look for another big down day Monday with a gain Wednesday, followed by another down day Friday.

With the ongoing financial turmoil creating high levels of fear, the US dollar has taken flight. As predicted, the Euro fell below 1.30 last week and opens Monday at 1.2624. With the Moon-Mercury conjunction occuring right on top of the natal Euro Mars on Monday, look for another huge sell off, perhaps as low as 1.20 by Tuesday morning. Friday may see the Euro fall below 1.20, perhaps decisively. Even with a rally later in November, the US dollar will likely rally again against the Euro and most other currencies in December with the greenback hitting a high around December 12. The trend will likely reverse after that. In all likelihood, the above pattern will apply to the Indian Rupee also with further declines in the next two weeks of 5-10%.

Crude oil also plunged last week amidst fears of economic slowdown and the US dollar appreciation and closed at $64. This conformed well with last week's forecast for crude below $70. $60 seems inevitable this week as the Futures chart is still heavily afflicted. Transiting Sun conjoins Saturn early in the week while transiting Mercury opposes Mars at the end of the week making for very bearish bookends. Look for an interim low in crude next week somewhere in the $50-55 range.

Gold also experienced sharp declines last week on the US dollar rally and closed Friday at $730. This was in keeping with our expectations that gold is headed to the $650 support level by December, perhaps sooner. Look for gold to plunge Monday as transiting Mercury is in tense aspect with the Futures natal Saturn. I would not be surprised to see it fall below $700 then, or perhaps later in the week. With transiting Ketu conjoining the natal Moon in this chart, look for gold to fall further in the next two weeks. The retest of these early November lows (perhaps around $650) will occur in mid-December.

US stocks drop 3% on global recession worries

It was another losing day on Wall St. as stocks probed ever closer to the Oct 10 lows as investors contemplated the grim possibility that the US recession may go global. After falling below 8200 at one point, the Dow closed at 8378 while the S&P ended trading at 876. The New York decline followed an even more negative session in other world markets. In India, the RBI unexpectedly left rates unchanged and the markets sold off precipitously as the Nifty lost 12% and closed at 2584 while the Sensex finished at 8701.

India's disastrous decline was somewhat foreshadowed in the Mars conjunction to natal Rahu in the NSE chart I had mentioned earlier. While I was calling for a generally day negative across the board, I wasn't quite prepared for the extent of panic in Indian markets. I still think we're at least another week from the bottom, but India may have seen the worst of this decline with this 12% loss today. Still with a lot of support near the 2000 level on the Nifty, one wonders if it can go all the way there in the next two weeks. Monday is shaping up to be very negative globally and in the US in particular. I'll post more details in my weekly forecast.

US stocks rally 2% at the close

After yet another mostly bearish day of trading, US stocks rallied near the close as the Dow closed at 8691 while the S&P finished at 908. The optimism borne in New York followed a negative day in Asia as the Nifty closed below 3000 to 2943 and the Sensex likewise broke below another major psychological level of 10,000 and ended the day at 9771.

With the long-awaited up day now behind us, we can look towards tomorrow for an indication of next week's trends. With Mercury applying towards Rahu's aspect while Mars simultaneously applies to aspect Rahu, it is hard to make a convincing case that this rally will continue. While I think Monday's planetary influences are clearly worse, Friday's also seem somewhat negative.

US stocks plunge 6% on corporate earnings outlook

The full-fledged gloom returned to Wall St today as stocks sold off sharply on an increasingly bleak profitability outlook. The Dow closed at 8519 and the S&P ended the session down 6% at 896. The mood in Asia was also negative as the Nifty closed down 5% to 3065 and the Sensex at 10,169.

It seems the market is accelerating its pace for a retest of the Oct 10 lows and will in fact get there by Monday Oct 27. While I had thought we would see more upside this week, the overall trend is more or less in keeping with our expectations. I'm even less certain about tomorrow's session than I was about today's (which was incorrect) as there are some divergent indicators both ways. With the Moon moving into aspect with the Sun and Pluto near midday, one might be tempted to say that the morning might be higher, with more selling in the afternoon. But even with the possibility of gains, this is no time to be long. By contrast, Friday and next Monday look more clearly bearish.